What you need to know

Red Sea attacks prompt insurance shock as Houthis escalate maritime campaign

On Sunday, 6 July, the Magic Seas, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier under Greek ownership, was attacked approximately 51 nautical miles southeast of Al Hudaydah. Houthi militants deployed small attack boats, drones, missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. The 22-member crew was forced to abandon ship before Houthi operatives boarded, planted explosives, and scuttled the vessel. All crew were rescued without injury.

The following day, on 7 July, the Eternity C (also Liberian-flagged and Greek-managed) was targeted roughly 49 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah. The ship came under coordinated assault by unmanned surface vessels and rocket-propelled grenades fired from Houthi speedboats. The attack struck the bridge, killing at least four crew members and injuring several others. The vessel was left disabled and drifting.

On 8 July, the stricken Eternity C suffered a second strike, this time from a drone. By the following morning, the vessel had sunk. Seven crew members were rescued, while fourteen remain missing, with some feared abducted. The attacks mark a grave escalation in Houthi maritime operations and have reverberated through the global insurance industry, particularly in the war risk and hull markets.

According to brokers and underwriters in London and elsewhere, war risk premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have surged in recent days.

The area remains designated as a high-risk zone by the Joint War Committee, a key advisory body of London marine insurers. In light of the recent escalation, underwriters are considering extending this designation eastward into the Arabian Sea and even parts of the Indian Ocean, should the Houthis continue to demonstrate long-range strike capability.

Reinsurers are also tightening their grip. Many are pressuring primary insurers to revise terms, particularly regarding business interruption, crew abduction, and unmanned system attacks such as those involving sea drones or loitering munitions.

Operationally, shipowners and charterers are again increasingly avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting instead to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour adds significant time and fuel costs, stretches shipping capacity (especially for bulkers and tankers) and pushes up global spot freight rates.

Industry sentiment has shifted sharply. Major insurers such as Lloyd’s of London, AXA XL, and Swiss Re are reassessing their exposure, with some reportedly suspending new underwriting for Red Sea voyages until security guarantees improve. The sector’s posture has moved from managing risk to actively avoiding it, underscored by the deaths aboard the Eternity C which are the first such fatalities in over a year.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Greece suspends asylum hearings amid migrant surge from Libya

Greece will suspend for three months all asylum hearings for migrants arriving by sea from North Africa, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced on Wednesday. The temporary halt comes in response to a sudden rise in migrant arrivals, particularly from Libya, where deteriorating conditions and renewed fighting have pushed hundreds to attempt the perilous Mediterranean crossing.

Authorities in Athens say the surge has placed unsustainable pressure on reception centers across the Aegean islands and mainland processing facilities. By pausing the asylum process for new arrivals from North Africa, the government hopes to stem the flow and buy time to implement tighter border controls and negotiate burden-sharing with the European Union.

Human rights groups have condemned the move, warning it risks breaching international obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention. But Mitsotakis defended the measure as a “temporary safeguard,” citing national security concerns and what he called “orchestrated flows” from transit countries failing to stem human trafficking.

The pause, which took effect immediately, will not apply to asylum seekers already on Greek soil prior to the announcement. The government has also called for increased Frontex support and is reportedly in talks with Italy and Malta to coordinate a broader Mediterranean response.

America First

Argentina secures tariff-free access for most exports to the U.S.

Argentina and the United States have reportedly concluded a trade agreement that will grant tariff-free access to roughly 80% of Argentine exports entering the U.S. market. The accord, which exempts strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum, is expected to lift duties—typically around 10%—on between 100 and 150 categories of goods, including agricultural produce and light manufactured items.

Negotiated amid improving ties under the pro-market government of President Javier Milei, the agreement represents a significant step in aligning Argentina more closely with U.S. economic priorities, particularly as Washington looks to diversify its supply chains and curb dependence on China. The deal is also geopolitically timely, arriving as part of a broader U.S. effort to deepen trade links across the Western Hemisphere.

While the list of eligible products and regulatory specifics have yet to be made public, implementation is provisionally scheduled for 1 August 2025. Argentina's obligations under the Mercosur customs union, however, may present legal hurdles, and further scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers and industry lobbies could delay the process. Even so, the agreement is viewed in both capitals as a diplomatic and economic success, reinforcing a shared commitment to liberal trade and regional integration.

U.S. sanctions UN official over push for ICC action against American & Israeli figures

The United States has imposed sanctions on Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, following what U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as “illegitimate and shameful efforts to prompt ICC action against U.S. and Israeli officials, companies, and executives.” The move marks a significant escalation in Washington’s campaign to deter international legal scrutiny of its military and diplomatic partners, particularly in the context of the Gaza conflict and broader Middle East tensions.

Albanese, a prominent critic of Israeli conduct in the Palestinian territories, has previously accused both Israel and its allies of systematic violations of international law. Her recent advocacy, reportedly involving confidential submissions to the International Criminal Court (ICC), sought to expand investigations into war crimes or crimes against humanity to include high-ranking American and Israeli policymakers, as well as private sector actors allegedly complicit in arms sales and surveillance operations.

The U.S. State Department, under Rubio’s leadership, condemned Albanese’s actions as a politically motivated abuse of her mandate, asserting that her role as Special Rapporteur had been “weaponized to target democratic states while ignoring the conduct of terrorist organizations.”

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Rubio attends ASEAN & meets Lavrov in Kuala Lumpur as trade tensions simmer

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has arrived in Kuala Lumpur to participate in the ASEAN Regional Forum, where he is expected to hold meetings with Southeast Asian counterparts as well as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The visit comes at a delicate moment for regional diplomacy, marked by rising trade friction and intensifying geopolitical rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.

Rubio’s presence underscores Washington’s renewed push to position the Indo-Pacific at the heart of its foreign policy agenda. His trip follows a string of new tariffs imposed by the United States on a number of ASEAN member states, ostensibly to protect strategic industries but widely interpreted as part of a broader effort to recalibrate global supply chains and reduce dependence on China. Several ASEAN governments have privately expressed concern over the economic impact of these measures, which affect key sectors such as electronics, steel, and automotive components.

In Kuala Lumpur, Rubio is expected to offer reassurances that the U.S. remains committed to ASEAN centrality and to a rules-based order in the region. He is likely to emphasize defense cooperation, economic partnerships through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and shared maritime security interests in the South China Sea.

His planned meeting with Lavrov adds an additional layer of tension, as Russia continues to seek influence among Southeast Asian states amid its isolation from the West over the war in Ukraine. While no formal dialogue is scheduled, diplomatic observers expect both sides to test the waters for possible de-escalation on secondary theaters, such as arms exports and regional energy projects.

The ASEAN Regional Forum, which brings together 27 members including the U.S., China, Russia, and the EU, provides one of the few multilateral settings where adversaries can meet face to face. This year’s session is expected to focus heavily on maritime disputes, North Korea’s nuclear provocations, and the global economic outlook as supply chains shift under new security-driven trade policies.

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