What you need to know

Trump pledges $300 million in weapons for Ukraine via NATO

President Donald Trump has announced the use of his Presidential Drawdown Authority to transfer approximately $300 million in weaponry from U.S. military stockpiles to Ukraine, with the cost to be covered by NATO partners. This marks the first application of the drawdown authority since Trump returned to office and follows a months-long freeze on military aid imposed by the Pentagon over concerns about depleted inventories.

The decision comes after another one of the heaviest waves of Russian missile and drone strikes against Kyiv and other regions since the full-scale invasion began. It also reflects mounting frustration within the Trump administration over Moscow’s refusal to engage meaningfully in peace talks. Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he can end the war through his personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, now faces the reality of a battlefield stalemate. Ukraine remains defiant, while the Kremlin appears determined to press ahead militarily rather than negotiate.

Although Trump remains critical of the approach taken by the Biden administration, his latest move suggests a shift toward a more active role in supporting Ukraine’s defense—even as he continues to seek a political off-ramp to the war.

Russia’s economy shows signs of strain as wartime pressures mount

Three years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economy is showing increasing signs of stress. With expanding state control, persistent inflation, and ballooning defense spending, the country has moved closer to what economists describe as a “fortress economy.” Central planning and nationalization have returned as dominant features of economic life.

Konstantin Strukov, one of Russia’s wealthiest gold magnates and owner of Yuzhuralzoloto, was arrested on 5 July as he attempted to board his private jet bound for Türkiye. Prosecutors have since opened legal proceedings against him and begun moves to nationalize his vast business holdings, citing financial irregularities.

The arrest is the latest in a broader Kremlin campaign to seize the assets of prominent oligarchs across strategic sectors, including gold, agriculture, and defense. Once considered immune due to their political connections, even regime-aligned billionaires have recently found themselves stripped of property, passports, and protection. Strukov’s detention underscores the state’s accelerating drive to consolidate economic control and redirect elite wealth toward sustaining the war effort.

According to multiple sources, including Reuters and the Council on Foreign Relations, Russia has seized or nationalized roughly $50 billion in foreign and domestic assets since 2022. This includes the expropriation of Western firms that exited the country, as well as growing state ownership of key sectors such as energy, logistics, and banking.

Despite efforts to project economic resilience, the data paint a bleaker picture. Gross domestic product expanded by just 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, down sharply from 4.5% in the final quarter of 2024. The Finance Ministry has reportedly warned that fiscal reserves may be depleted by the autumn, as the costs of war and social subsidies mount.

Russia’s budget deficit reached 1.7% of GDP in the first half of the year, while defense spending surged to 6.3% of GDP—its highest level since the Cold War. Much of this is directed toward arms procurement, payments to conscripts and their families, and subsidies for military-linked industries.

Inflation remains elevated, fluctuating between 9% and 10%. Although the Central Bank of Russia has signaled limited rate cuts to support growth, monetary policy is constrained by capital controls and a risk of renewed ruble volatility. The national currency, while officially stable, continues to operate under informal dual exchange rates due to distortions in trade and capital flows driven by sanctions and isolation.

These conditions suggest an economy that remains operational under pressure but is growing increasingly brittle—held together by short-term interventions and a readiness to prioritize war aims over long-term stability.

The planet will be fine, it’s the humans that should be worried

June 2025 ranks as Earth’s third-warmest June on record

Newly released data from NASA, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirm that June 2025 was the third-warmest June recorded globally since temperature monitoring began in 1850.

The month continued a persistent streak of anomalous heat stretching across much of the past year, with elevated land and ocean surface temperatures registered on every inhabited continent.

Average global surface temperatures for June 2025 were approximately 1.3°C above the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900), narrowly trailing the records set in June 2023 and June 2024.

Sea surface temperatures were particularly extreme, with the North Atlantic and the western Pacific exhibiting persistent marine heatwaves that disrupted fisheries, coral systems, and weather patterns.

Meanwhile, large portions of southern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and northern Africa experienced record-breaking heatwaves, contributing to heat-related health emergencies, wildfires, and strain on power grids.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia endured an unusually warm start to its winter, while parts of South America, particularly Argentina and Brazil, saw extended drought conditions intensify.

The warming trend also extended to the Arctic, where sea ice extent for June was among the lowest on record, reinforcing concerns about accelerated ice loss and polar amplification.

Scientists attribute the elevated temperatures to a combination of anthropogenic climate change and the lingering effects of a multi-year El Niño event that has recently begun transitioning.

America First

Screwworm row strains U.S.–Mexico agricultural trade

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has sharply criticized the decision by the United States to suspend cattle imports from Mexico again following the detection of a single case of New World screwworm in Veracruz.

Speaking at a press briefing on Wednesday, Sheinbaum described Washington’s response as “totally exaggerated,” arguing that the measure unfairly penalizes Mexican ranchers and risks disrupting a vital cross-border agricultural trade.

In response to the growing biosecurity challenge, Mexico has begun construction on a $51 million sterile-fly production plant in the southern state of Chiapas. The facility, scheduled to open in 2026, will form part of a binational initiative aimed at producing and releasing sterilized male flies to suppress wild populations.

The trade dispute unfolds amid broader economic pressures in Mexico. Minutes released from the June meeting of the Banco de México board suggest that policymakers are likely to slow the pace of interest rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and fragile domestic demand. Although headline inflation eased to 4.32%, it remains above the central bank’s 3% target, prompting a cautious stance from rate-setters.

The screwworm controversy adds another layer of complexity to U.S.–Mexico relations, already marked by disputes over energy policy, migration, and upcoming changes to North American trade rules. For Mexico’s livestock industry (already facing volatile feed prices and drought) the halt in exports represents a fresh blow.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to choose a side

Rubio and Wang meet in Kuala Lumpur

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on today at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur. The meeting took place amid mounting tensions between the two powers, with discussions shaped by disputes over trade restrictions, growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, and increasing U.S. support for Taiwan.

The two sides also exchanged pointed words over their roles in the Russia‑Ukraine war, with Washington urging Beijing to curtail indirect support for Moscow, while Beijing accused the U.S. of prolonging the conflict through weapons transfers and economic sanctions.

Despite the fraught context, the talks reportedly lasted over an hour and included informal discussions aimed at reestablishing military-to-military communications, which had been suspended following a string of incidents involving Chinese and U.S. naval vessels in contested waters.

The encounter was the first in-person meeting between the two senior officials since Rubio took office. Diplomats present characterized the exchange as tense yet necessary, offering a tentative pathway to renewed dialogue in a period of deepening strategic distrust.

President Trump to host Marcos Jr. amid rising tensions in the South China Sea

President Donald Trump is due to host Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House next week, in a renewed push to bolster trade and security ties between the two long-standing allies.

Talks are expected to center on enhanced military cooperation, expanded joint naval patrols, and broader economic engagement through new investment frameworks and trade initiatives. Marcos is also likely to raise concerns over Beijing’s growing assertiveness in Philippine waters, particularly near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.

This will be Marcos’s second visit to Washington since taking office and reflects a strategic shift toward closer alignment with the U.S. at a time when regional governments are recalibrating their positions in response to China’s expanding maritime reach.

Trump is expected to reaffirm the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and unveil new security assistance packages aimed at enhancing Manila’s surveillance and deterrence capabilities.

Although no sweeping trade agreement is anticipated, both sides are preparing to launch a strategic economic dialogue focused on industrial cooperation and infrastructure development.

Argentina confronts illegal Chinese fishing fleet with live fire in South Atlantic

Argentina has drawn global attention after its navy engaged in a protracted eight-hour standoff with a fleet of illegal Chinese fishing vessels operating in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South Atlantic. The confrontation, which escalated into the use of live ammunition, underscores Buenos Aires’ growing frustration with rampant illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing near its maritime borders, almost all of it linked to China’s distant-water fleet.

According to the Argentine Navy, the incident began when patrol vessels identified several Chinese trawlers operating without authorization in restricted waters off the Patagonian coast. After issuing multiple radio warnings and signal flares ordering the vessels to leave the area, the Chinese ships reportedly ignored all instructions and attempted evasive maneuvers, including switching off their transponders to avoid detection.

In response, the navy escalated its engagement, firing warning shots and ultimately live rounds in the direction of the vessels, aiming to disable their operations and force them to retreat. The exchange lasted for more than eight hours before the Chinese ships withdrew.

The Argentine Ministry of Defense emphasized that the navy’s actions were taken in accordance with national and international maritime law, citing repeated violations of its sovereign fishing rights.

This latest encounter is likely to heighten diplomatic tensions between Buenos Aires and Beijing. It also signals a firmer regional posture against illegal fishing, an issue that has increasingly drawn criticism from countries across Latin America, Africa, and the Pacific Islands.

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