What you need to know

U.S. eases AI chip restrictions as part of rare-earths negotiation

The U.S. Department of Commerce, under Secretary Howard Lutnick, has approved the limited export of Nvidia H20 artificial intelligence chips to China, reversing a previous ban imposed in April.

The decision comes as part of broader negotiations in which China agreed to ease export restrictions on several rare-earth elements and magnets critical to sectors including defense, electronics, and clean energy.

Amid rising anxiety over China’s technological ambitions, particularly in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, the administration of President Joe Biden began tightening export controls on semiconductors in 2022. The rules specifically targeted processors designed for AI training and supercomputing, including models produced by Nvidia and AMD.

The stated aim was to prevent the Chinese military and state security apparatus from acquiring leading-edge U.S. technologies. The measures also restricted U.S. citizens and permanent residents from working in China’s semiconductor industry, effectively cutting off a vital source of expertise.

In 2023 and 2024, these controls were expanded and enforcement intensified. Washington worked closely with allies in Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea to block China’s access to advanced lithography equipment and fabrication capabilities. The policy marked a shift from passive decoupling to active technological containment, designed to prevent China from acquiring or producing the high-performance chips needed for AI, quantum computing, and sophisticated weapons systems.

Beijing responded by accelerating efforts to develop domestic chip-making alternatives and by restricting exports of its own critical materials, including gallium and germanium, which are key inputs for chip production.

These Chinese countermeasures, combined with the global scarcity of alternatives to Chinese-processed rare earths, have strengthened Beijing’s negotiating hand.

Rare-earth elements are a group of 17 metals essential to modern technologies, including smartphones, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military systems such as guided missiles and stealth aircraft.

Since the late 1980s, China has gradually secured overwhelming control over the rare-earths supply chain. By investing heavily in mining, refining, and processing, often at significant environmental cost, China has come to dominate more than 80 percent of global rare-earth processing.

Despite repeated efforts by the U.S., Australia, Canada, and others to diversify supply, China’s dominance remains largely intact. Attempts to establish alternative refining capacity have proven slow and expensive. China still holds a near-monopoly in the high-purity processing required for defense applications and advanced manufacturing.

Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, recently met President Donald Trump in Washington before traveling to Beijing, where U.S. officials committed to streamlining export licensing. Nvidia quickly applied for the necessary permissions.

The move has provoked backlash from some American lawmakers, with critics arguing that the approval risks enhancing China’s AI capabilities. The H20 is powerful enough to support the most advanced machine learning and its export will have strategic consequences.

Financial markets responded favorably, with shares of Nvidia and AMD rising on expectations of renewed access to China’s lucrative technology sector. Chinese firms, including major players in cloud computing and social media, are reportedly preparing license applications. While contentious, the deal reflects an effort by Washington to balance geopolitical caution with commercial interests, using rare-earth access as leverage to navigate the complex terrain of U.S.–China technological competition.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Syrian situation continues to escalate as Israel strikes Syrian government forces

A sharp escalation in southern Syria unfolded on this morning, as Israeli air strikes targeted Syrian government forces in and around the city of Sweida and even in Damascus.

The strikes follow days of intense fighting in the Druze-majority region, where dozens have reportedly been killed since Monday. Videos circulating online show members of the Druze community being detained, beaten, and forcibly shaved. Syrian authorities have pledged disciplinary action against security personnel found responsible for violations, though the evidence for these abuses comes from videos filmed and shared by the perpetrators themselves. There have also been unconfirmed reports of unlawful killings of civilians.

The violence has triggered an outcry from Druze leaders across the region. Hikmat Hajari, a prominent Druze religious leader in Syria, appealed to neighboring states, especially Israel, to intervene.

Sheikh Muwaffaq Tarif, the spiritual head of the Druze community in Israel, announced a general strike across all Druze towns and urged his followers to prepare to cross the border "by any means necessary to assist our brothers being slaughtered in Syria."

Israel’s government has responded with both words and firepower. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Katz issued a warning to Damascus, demanding the immediate withdrawal of regime forces from Druze-populated areas.

Israeli media is reporting that the U.S. has been pressuring Israel to stay out of this conflict, but there has been no official word from the White House. Moreover, domestic pressure from Israel’s Druze community will make it difficult for Israel to avoid further involvement as long as the Druze in Syria are under attack.

America First

President Donald Trump has announced a new bilateral trade agreement with Indonesia that reduces the previously planned 32 percent U.S. tariff on Indonesian exports to 19 percent.

As part of the deal, Indonesia has agreed to purchase $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products and $4.5 billion in American agricultural goods, including wheat, soybeans, corn, and cotton, in an effort to address its $18 billion trade surplus with the United States.

The agreement also includes a major procurement of 50 Boeing aircraft by Garuda Indonesia, with the possibility of expanding the order to 75 jets.

In response to the deal, Indonesia’s central bank lowered interest rates and welcomed the tariff reduction, citing its positive impact on export performance and financial stability.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Al‑Shabaab militants have seized the town of Tardo (also referred to as Tardow) in the central Hiiran region of Somalia, following sustained pressure on government-aligned clan fighters. The advance of the al‑Qaeda‑linked insurgents has triggered the displacement of an estimated 12,500 families across Tardo and the nearby town of Mugokori. In response, Somali authorities have deployed troops to launch a counter-offensive aimed at retaking the area.

Tardo is a strategic crossroads in Hiiran, linking several larger towns and trade routes. Its fall illustrates the expanding reach of al‑Shabaab amid the ongoing Shabelle offensive, which began in February and has already seen the group capture multiple towns in central Somalia. The seizure further highlights the deteriorating security situation in Hiiran and the broader Hirshabelle federal state.

Al-Shabaab’s military campaign in Somalia, which it launched in February, is gaining traction and poses a mounting threat to the central government. The group has captured several towns across central regions such as Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, and Hiiraan, including the recent seizure of Tardo. It continues to carry out high-profile attacks, including a suicide bombing at the Jaalle Siyaad Military Academy in Mogadishu and an assault on the Cairo Hotel in Beledweyne, demonstrating its capacity to strike well-defended targets.

Somali government forces, supported by Turkish equipment and training, African Union troops, and clan militias, have managed to repel some attacks but remain overstretched and largely reactive.

Al-Shabaab appears to be attempting to encircle Mogadishu by linking its central and southern strongholds, a move that threatens key supply routes and critical infrastructure.

While political leaders have downplayed the extent of the threat, al-Shabaab’s expanding reach and persistent territorial advances suggest a serious and growing challenge to national stability. The humanitarian toll is also rising, with mass displacement across conflict zones. Taken together, the campaign reflects not just operational momentum by the insurgents but a strategic peril to the Somali state.

Jihadist violence escalates in Mali and Niger as Sahel insecurity deepens

Jihadist activity in the central Sahel has remained intense over the past week, particularly in Mali and Niger.

In Mali, militants affiliated with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked group, carried out a series of high-casualty attacks against military positions. These included coordinated assaults on army bases in Dioura and Boulkessi, followed by a deadly raid on the airport and army camp in Timbuktu that reportedly left around 40 soldiers dead.

Additional violence erupted near Mahou, close to the Burkina Faso border, prompting the deployment of emergency air reinforcements.

Despite efforts by Mali’s armed forces and Russian mercenaries, jihadist groups continue to expand their territorial footprint.

In Niger, fighters from the Islamic State–Sahel Province killed 34 soldiers in a raid on the Banibangou military base, and subsequently massacred more than 70 civilians during an assault on a mosque near Manda. A later clash near Foneko left at least 15 Nigerien soldiers dead, alongside 21 militants.

Burkina Faso, meanwhile, saw continued but less widely reported jihadist violence, concentrated in the Liptako-Gourma region, in line with trends observed in recent months.

These incidents underscore a persistent jihadist ability to target both military and civilian populations seemingly at will across a wide swathe of the Sahel region.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Heavy fighting continues in eastern Ukraine as Trump threatens new sanctions

Fighting has intensified along the eastern front in Ukraine over the past 24 hours. In the Donetsk and Lyman sectors, Russian forces launched dozens of assaults on Ukrainian positions near Toretsk, Novospaske, Rusyn Yar, Novyi Myr, and Serebrianka. Ukrainian troops also repelled multiple attacks near Hryhorivka, Vyiimka, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora. The Pokrovsk area has seen particularly fierce clashes, with more than 40 Russian advances reported.

On the aerial front, Russian air, missile, and drone strikes have continued to target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Economically, Russia appears to be under mounting pressure. Although financial markets remain stable and public statements project confidence, senior officials and analysts warn that the country is nearing recession. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, and there are growing signs of industrial decline and weakening consumer demand. Since the start of the war, the Russian government has seized at least $50 billion in domestic assets to help fund its wartime budget. However, persistent weaknesses in manufacturing and employment suggest deeper vulnerabilities in the economy.

Adding to these pressures, President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russian oil and introduce sweeping secondary sanctions if no progress towards peace is show within the next 50 days. If enacted, these measures would likely deepen the economic strain on the Kremlin.

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