Syria’s new government withdrew its forces from the southern, Druze-dominated, city of Sweida last night. This was the result of Israeli airstrikes and U.S. diplomatic pressure. It’s a serious setback for the Damascus government, and will embolden those looking for a more loosely federated Syria in the future. It also makes Syria’s new President, Ahmad Al Sharaa, look weak, and thus may strengthen the hand of more radical elements within his coalition. Overall, the transition to a post-Assad Syrian nation has never looked shakier. |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Israeli strikes & U.S. request prompt Syrian withdrawal from Sweida
Overnight, following a series of Israeli air strikes on government-linked sites in Damascus and elsewhere, and at the request of the U.S. Department of State, Syrian government forces withdrew from the southern city of Sweida, a predominantly Druze area.
The Israeli military struck the Ministry of Defense and a site near the Presidential Palace in Damascus. Around Sweida, Israeli helicopters reportedly dropped supplies to Druze fighters affiliated with Sheikh Hikmat Hijri, the leading anti-government religious figure in the region, and also launched strikes against Syrian government troops.
Reports have emerged of atrocities committed by both sides. It remains difficult to verify the precise number of dead or the circumstances of their deaths. However, Druze-affiliated social media accounts shared images of fighters standing over the bodies of slain Syrian soldiers, while pro-government channels circulated videos showing captured Druze being beaten and humiliated.
Reliable figures on the number of combatants killed are scarce, but initial assessments suggest that government forces suffered heavy losses. Numerous bodies of fighters, and some civilians, have also been uncovered in Sweida city center following the withdrawal of Syrian government forces. The London-based Syrian Observatory on Human Rights has confirmed at least 260 dead, from both sides, though the confirmed toll is likely to increase in coming days.
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa issued a statement very early this morning as his forces withdrew. He asserted that Syria had "chosen to protect the nation rather than enter into war with Israel," framing the government's restraint as a calculated decision in the national interest.
Sharaa accused the Israelis of attempting to divide the Syrian people and warned that there would be "no place for others' ambitions on our land." He credited the state with successfully halting internal clashes in Sweida and restoring order. International mediation, he noted, had helped prevent the situation from escalating further. He concluded by stating that "the interests of the people were prioritized over chaos," underscoring the government's aim to safeguard national unity and reject destabilization.
The political transition in Syria, following the removal of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December of last year, remains acutely fragile.
Revolutionary forces from the south, who spearheaded the offensive on Damascus, remain reluctant to cede authority to the new government seated in the capital.
The ‘Syrian National Army’, a Turkish-backed militia, continues to operate outside full governmental control and has been implicated in atrocities against both Alawites and, more recently, Druze.
In the south, parts of the Druze community are pressing to retain local autonomy, with some voices even advocating for union with Israel.
Along the coast, the Alawite population—historically aligned with the Assad dynasty—has suffered heavily in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster.
Meanwhile, the geographic majority of Syrian territory remains under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed coalition dominated by Kurdish fighters with significant support from Arab tribal groups. That bloc shows little enthusiasm for reunification under a centralized government in Damascus.
Israel has established security zones along the western and south-western borders, well inside Syrian territory. It has provided materiel support to the Druze, and has consistently messaged that it believes the Kurdish-controlled areas should remain autonomous.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
The Middle East
Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization
Deadly mall fire in Kut deepens Iraq’s political crisis
At least 61 people were killed when a fire tore through the five-story al-Kornish Hypermarket in the eastern Iraqi city of Kut on Wednesday. The blaze, which erupted just one week after the shopping center opened, claimed the lives of men, women and children, many of whom died from suffocation while trapped in bathrooms, according to Iraq’s Ministry of Interior. Another 45 individuals were rescued by civil defense teams, who worked overnight to extract survivors through narrow windows and stairwells.
Video footage verified by independent sources showed the building engulfed in flames, with groups of people awaiting rescue on the rooftop. By Thursday morning, the Ministry of Interior confirmed that 14 victims remained unidentified.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered a fully equipped medical team to support emergency efforts and instructed Minister of Interior Abdul Amir al-Shammari to launch an immediate investigation. Al-Shammari announced the formation of a high-level committee tasked with identifying the cause of the fire and any failures in safety procedures. Legal proceedings have already been initiated against the building’s owner. In Wasit province, where Kut is located, Governor Mohammed Jameel al-Mayahi declared three days of mourning and pledged to release preliminary findings from the investigation within 48 hours.
The disaster has unfolded against the backdrop of a broader political crisis. Tensions between the federal government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish region have escalated in recent days over the allocation of national budget funds. Over the past two days, three oil fields in Kurdistan have been struck by mortar and rocket fire launched by militias aligned with Baghdad-based parties. Iraq’s federal government has also moved several military units up to the border with Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdish political factions have threatened to withdraw from the government unless the attacks and financial dispute are addressed.
With national elections scheduled for November, the government’s handling of both the Kut fire and the financial crisis with the Kurds is likely to shape Sudani’s electoral prospects. Public anger over the fire, widely seen as emblematic of systemic failures in governance and enforcement, has added further strain to an already volatile political landscape.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
U.S. sharpens trade posture with tariff push and Brazil investigation
At a trade summit in Detroit on Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlined the latest priorities in President Donald Trump’s evolving trade strategy.
Speaking to a gathering of business leaders and trade officials, Greer reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to:
Reducing the U.S. trade deficit.
Revitalizing domestic manufacturing.
Using tariffs as a primary policy lever.
The baseline tariff rate across most imports will remain at 10%, he said, though rates could rise as high as 55% on specific goods deemed to undermine U.S. competitiveness or violate trade norms.
Greer highlighted General Motors’ recent decision to relocate vehicle production from Mexico to plants in Ohio and Michigan as an early success of the policy, citing it as evidence that tariff pressure was reshaping supply chains in favor of American labor.
In a related development, Greer announced that the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a formal Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade and digital payment practices.
The move follows President Trump’s announcement of a new 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, part of a broader campaign to challenge what the administration views as systemic discrimination against U.S. firms.
The probe will examine whether Brazilian regulations, particularly those governing e-commerce, financial technology, and procurement, constitute unfair barriers to market access or violate World Trade Organization commitments.
The outcome could result in additional tariffs or trade restrictions if Brazil is found to be engaging in practices detrimental to U.S. commercial interests.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
Russia advances in Donetsk as economic pressures mount
Russian forces continue their slow and costly advance along large parts of the frontline. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces seized the village of Novokhatske and continued advancing southwest along the H-15 highway near Novopavlivka. Ukrainian troops mounted counterattacks around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Siversk. In the northern reaches of Sumy and Kursk oblasts, Russian units maintained pressure on Ukrainian border positions, while Ukrainian forces responded with drone and artillery strikes. Russian drones targeted the Shostka district in Sumy, and missile and drone attacks struck civilian infrastructure in Donetsk, reportedly killing three people and injuring at least 29.
Across the border, Ukrainian drones launched strikes on Moscow, Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions.
Russia’s economy continues to exhibit signs of strain. Oil and gas revenues in June fell by roughly 14% compared with the same month last year, declining to $13.6 billion. The country's nominal GDP was approximately $2.2 trillion in 2024, with economic growth projected at a modest 1.5% in 2025. Industrial output has slowed, inflation remains high and officials have acknowledged rising recession risks. A further review of interest rates is expected later this month, following a cut implemented in June.
U.S. to build naval support facilities for the Philippines near contested waters
The United States Navy has announced plans to construct two repair and maintenance facilities for the Philippine Navy in Palawan province, a strategically significant region facing the South China Sea. One site will be located in Oyster Bay, near the town of Puerto Princesa, close to the disputed Spratly Islands. The other will be built in Quezon town, farther south along the western coastline. These bases are intended to bolster the operational readiness of Philippine vessels conducting patrols and resupply missions in the West Philippine Sea, particularly in areas where Chinese maritime activity has intensified.
The announcement comes amid escalating tensions between the Philippine and Chinese coast guards, marked by repeated confrontations near Second Thomas Shoal and other contested reefs. The U.S. Department of Defense has stated that the projects fall under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which grants U.S. forces access to designated Philippine military bases for rotational deployments and joint exercises. The planned facilities are expected to function not only as logistical hubs but also as platforms for strengthening coordination between the two navies.
Construction is scheduled to begin later this year, with initial operational capacity anticipated in 2026. Filipino officials have characterized the initiative as a crucial measure to reinforce sovereignty and enhance maritime security in the region.
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What happened today:
1203 – Fourth Crusade captures Constantinople, installs puppet emperor. 1453 – Battle of Castillon ends Hundred Years’ War between England and France. 1918 – Tsar Nicholas II and his family executed by Bolsheviks in Yekaterinburg. 1945 – Potsdam Conference opens with leaders of the U.S., Britain, and Soviet Union. 1976 – Indonesia annexes East Timor after invasion and controversial referendum. 1996 – TWA Flight 800 explodes off Long Island. 2014 – Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 shot down over eastern Ukraine, 298 killed. 2015 – Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) formally endorsed by UN Security Council.
