What you need to know

Bedouin tribal mobilization threatens new civil war in Syria

The withdrawal of Syrian government forces from Sweida on Thursday has not ended the conflict. On the contrary, the situation is rapidly unraveling.

Bedouin tribal leaders have called for retaliatory attacks against the Druze community and are mobilizing tens of thousands of fighters. This escalation follows the Syrian army’s pullout from Sweida, reportedly under pressure from both Israeli military strikes and U.S. diplomatic efforts.

A full-scale Sunni Bedouin tribal mobilization is now underway, spearheaded by the powerful Aniza tribal confederation, whose presence stretches from Deir ez-Zor in the north-east to Daraa in the south and across borders into Jordan, Iraqi, and Saudi Arabia.

Around 40,000 - 50,000 tribal fighters have gathered, and that figure is still rising. Bedouin fighters this morning seized the town of al-Mazra’a, captured six Druze villages, entered the outskirts of Sweida city, and have taken scores of Druze fighters prisoner, including Khuldoon al-Hijri, a cousin of Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the Druze militia commander.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Türkiye, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon and Egypt issued a joint statement calling for Syria’s “security, unity, stability and sovereignty,” and rejecting any foreign interference in its internal affairs.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held separate calls with al-Sharaa. Both condemned Israeli airstrikes in Syria as unacceptable threats to regional security. Erdogan welcomed the ceasefire declared in Sweida, while the crown prince urged the international community to rally behind Damascus.

The conflict was originally triggered last weekend when a Druze man was reportedly kidnapped by Bedouin fighters. Anti-government Druze factions claim Damascus incited the confrontation to justify a military re-entry into Sweida. Whether or not that is true, there is now no force standing between the Druze and the Bedouin, and full-scale hostilities have resumed.

Syria’s already fragile post-Assad transition is now in deep peril.

Israeli warplanes have launched new airstrikes on a large Bedouin militia convoy traveling along the Palmyra–Homs road, believed to be heading toward Druze areas in southern Israel. Simultaneously, Israeli aircraft have struck other convoys en route to Sweida.

In Damascus, Syrian forces are attempting to block roads to prevent Bedouin fighters from traveling south. According to the Syrian Interior Ministry, government forces have not entered Sweida City. Fighting continues around city, with some clashes reportedly taking place between rival Bedouin groups, suggesting poor coordination among the advancing tribes.

A new Syrian civil war may be taking shape.

This is precisely the sort of breakdown that coordination between Israel and Damascus, brokered by the U.S. and Azerbaijan, was meant to prevent.

Druze militias under the command of Hikmat al-Hijri appear to be faltering under the weight of the tribal assault. Al-Hijri, who in the past few days called for Israeli assistance to eject Syrian government forces from Sweida, has now reportedly appealed (though unconfirmed) to the Syrian government for protection. Damascus, however, is requiring the locals to disarm before it considers re-intervention.

The stakes are high. What happens if sectarian violence erupts between over one million Sunnis in southern Syria and the increasingly militant Druze militias (the Druze probably number about 700-800,000)? Who will separate the factions? Who will enforce order?

There is also the looming threat of jihadist resurgence. A security vacuum could allow the Islamic State to reemerge. Additionally, Hezbollah or the Iranian Qods Force could seize the opportunity to enter the security vacuum and, re-establish their footholds lost after the fall of Damascus last year, and launch rockets from southern Syria, further escalating the conflict.

Move fast and break things

House votes to defund public media and foreign aid

By a narrow and highly partisan vote of 216 to 213, the House of Representatives has approved President Donald Trump’s request to withdraw $8 billion in foreign aid and eliminate the entire $1.1 billion in federal funding allocated to National Public Radio (NPR), the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), and their affiliated local stations over the next two years. The measure, passed almost entirely along party lines, represents a stark departure from the bipartisan consensus that has sustained public media in the United States since the founding of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting in 1967.

For almost 60 years, public broadcasting has enjoyed federal support on the grounds that it provides a non-commercial, educational alternative to profit-driven media, particularly in rural and economically disadvantaged areas.

The legislation unravels a long-standing congressional commitment to public broadcasting as a civic good. Detractors warn that the decision may diminish media diversity, weaken civic literacy, and deprive millions of Americans of access to locally grounded news and cultural content.

Should the measure become law, it would amount to the most substantial rollback of public media support since its inception, raising broader questions about the role of publicly funded content in a functioning democracy.

House passes anti-CBDC surveillance act

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, a significant piece of legislation aimed at halting the development or adoption of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) within the United States.

Approved largely along party lines, the bill reflects a mounting backlash, particularly among Republicans, against what they see as the risk of sweeping government surveillance enabled by digital money systems.

The legislation prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital form of the U.S. dollar to individuals or intermediaries, effectively outlawing the creation of a retail CBDC.

It also forbids the central bank from deploying any digital currency as a tool for monetary policy or financial oversight.

Supporters of the bill frequently point to China’s digital yuan as a cautionary example. Critics contend that Beijing’s system allows the government to monitor transactions, suppress dissent, and enforce social controls through monetary tools.

Representative Tom Emmer, who sponsored the bill, described the debate as a defining question over whether the U.S. dollar remains a symbol of liberty or becomes an instrument of state control.

Opponents, mostly Democrats, warn that prematurely banning CBDC development could undermine the United States’ role in shaping the future of global finance. With other nations accelerating their own digital currency programs, they argue that abandoning research risks ceding both influence and competitiveness in international monetary affairs.

The bill’s passage in the House sets up a potentially contentious battle in the Senate, where its fate is uncertain. Nonetheless, its approval sends a clear political signal: a growing segment of the American political class views CBDCs not as benign innovations, but as a possible conduit for state coercion.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

France completes military withdrawal from Senegal

France on Thursday formally handed over its last two military installations in Senegal, leaving it with no permanent army bases in either west or central Africa. Roughly 350 French soldiers, who had been conducting joint operations with Senegal’s armed forces, are now departing. Their exit concludes a three-month process that began in March.

The move ends a 65-year military presence in independent Senegal and follows a wave of withdrawals across the continent, as former colonies increasingly distance themselves from their erstwhile ruler.

The drawdown comes amid worsening jihadist violence in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, where insurgent attacks are spilling into neighboring states. Earlier this month, militants assaulted a town near the Senegalese border.

Senegal’s president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who swept to power in 2024 on a platform of sweeping reform, demanded that all French troops leave the country by the end of 2025. In contrast to military-led governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which have severed ties with Paris, Faye has stated that Senegal will continue to cooperate with France; albeit on new terms.

Since gaining independence in 1960, Senegal had been one of France’s most loyal African partners, hosting French forces throughout the post-colonial era. That arrangement endured under Faye’s predecessor, Macky Sall. But Faye, who campaigned on a promise to break with the past, has insisted that France be treated like any other foreign partner.

France returned Camp Geille, its largest base in the country, along with its airfield at Dakar airport, in a ceremony attended by senior French and Senegalese officials.

A series of coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger between 2020 and 2023 installed military rulers who swiftly expelled French forces and turned to Russia for military support.

In February, Paris returned its last base in Ivory Coast, bringing decades of military presence there to an end. A month earlier, France had relinquished control of the Kossei base in Chad, its final military outpost in the turbulent Sahel.

Meanwhile, France has restructured its presence in Gabon, transforming its base there into a shared training facility with local forces.

After Thursday’s pullout, only the small Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti will continue to host a permanent French military base. France now plans to use that base, home to some 1,500 personnel, as its principal headquarters on the continent.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Leaked order reveals Russia to print 15 trillion rubles as fiscal crisis deepens

Documents obtained through Ukrainian cyber operations suggest that the Russian Central Bank has secretly instructed the Ministry of Finance to print ₽15 trillion (approximately $192 billion at current exchange rates) over the next three months.

The directive, dated 7 July 2025 and signed by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, reportedly calls for the mass issuance of 1,000- and 5,000-ruble notes under the official rationale of “stabilizing inflation” and “financing priority expenditures.”

For comparison, a 3-trillion-ruble issuance in 2022 was enough to push inflation toward double-digit levels.

The current plan, which is five times larger, could trigger a severe monetary shock.

There is a genuine risk of the collapse of the ruble, soaring prices, shortages, capital flight, and the proliferation of black-market currency schemes. Wages, pensions and savings may be rapidly eroded, deepening poverty across Russia.

Further compounding the crisis, the Russian government is reportedly slashing so-called “damper” subsidies that compensate fuel producers for price caps on gasoline and diesel. As a result, wholesale fuel prices on domestic exchanges have reached their highest level in a year.

EU adopts 18th sanctions package against Russia

The European Union has approved its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia, tightening restrictions on energy, finance, and exports.

The G7 price cap on Russian crude oil has been lowered to $47.60 per barrel from $60. The package also prohibits transactions involving the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines by EU-based operators. Imports of refined petroleum products derived from Russian crude oil through third countries (such as India and Türkiye) are now banned. An additional 77 vessels have been added to the shadow fleet blacklist, bringing the total to 419, in an effort to deter sanctions evasion.

In the financial sector, a full transaction ban has been imposed on 22 more Russian banks, replacing previous restrictions based on the SWIFT network. Similar bans will now apply to financial intermediaries in third countries that assist in circumventing sanctions. The Russian Direct Investment Fund and its subsidiaries have also been targeted, aiming to stymie funding for industrial modernization.

The new measures further restrict exports, introducing a €2.5 billion ban on critical technologies and industrial goods including machinery, metals, plastics, chemicals, and dual-use items for drones and weapons. The list of sanctioned entities has expanded to include 22 additional Russian and foreign firms, among them companies from China and Belarus, that support Russia’s military-industrial base. The total number of such entities now exceeds 800.

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