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What you need to know

Japan’s ruling coalition loses upper house majority

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in upper house elections on Sunday, according to exit polls, dealing a severe blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and casting doubt on his political future.

The outcome, worse than predicted, illustrates mounting public discontent with Mr Ishiba’s government, particularly regarding its handling of economic stagnation, rising inflation and heightened regional security tensions.

Opposition parties, benefiting from voter frustration, secured significant gains by exploiting unease over the administration’s controversial policies, including increased defense expenditure and unpopular tax rises.

The defeat is even more damaging given the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) historic dominance. Having governed almost continuously since its formation in 1955, interrupted only briefly in 1993 and again from 2009 to 2012, the party has relied on steady parliamentary majorities to guide Japan’s post-war economic miracle.

In recent months, Japan has grappled with renewed economic turmoil, particularly in its bond markets. The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to gradually unwind its longstanding stimulus measures has triggered a sharp rise in bond yields. Yields on long-term Japanese government bonds have risen to their highest levels in decades, raising the government's borrowing costs significantly and creating fears of further economic instability.

These bond-market challenges, driven by investor anxiety over Japan's enormous public debt (around 235 percent of GDP) and widening fiscal deficits, complicate matters further. The threat of heavy U.S. tariffs has certainly not helped, though the economic crisis began before President Trump entered office.

Mr Ishiba's weakened political position may impair his ability to enact effective economic policies or implement urgently needed fiscal adjustments.

The parliamentary fragmentation resulting from Sunday's elections could thus leave Japan caught between necessary debt management and an increasingly uncertain economic recovery, intensifying internal pressure on the LDP to reconsider both its policies and leadership ahead of the next general election.

For a backgrounder on the history of Japan’s fiscal issues and relationship with U.S. trade deficits, see From the Plaza to Mar-a-Lago.

America First

Philippine President Marcos Jr. to meet President Donald Trump in Washington

The President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will travel to Washington from 20 to 22 July for a high-level meeting with President Donald Trump, making him the first Southeast Asian head of state to visit the White House during Trump’s second term.

Marcos is under pressure to strike a deal that avoids economic fallout at home while ensuring more advantageous terms than those agreed by his regional peers, such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Beyond trade, the visit will also focus on deepening diplomatic and defense ties. Marcos is scheduled to meet with the U.S. secretaries of state and defense, as well as business leaders. The discussions are expected to reaffirm the U.S.–Philippine mutual defense treaty and expand military cooperation, particularly in light of rising tensions in the South China Sea.

As part of the trade talks, the Philippines is reportedly considering the elimination of tariffs on selected U.S. goods as a gesture to facilitate negotiations, following a similar model adopted in recent deals elsewhere in the region.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Sweida’s uneasy ceasefire masks very deep fractures

A fragile calm has descended on Sweida after a week of sectarian violence that threatened to drag southern Syria into a broader conflict.

Armed clashes between Druze militias, Sunni Bedouin fighters, and forces controlled by the Syrian Ministry of Defense have left more than a thousand dead and tens of thousands displaced.

The Syrian government and Bedouin forces have withdrawn from the city, redeploying troops and erecting checkpoints on the outskirts in a bid to prevent further bloodshed.

Sweida’s humanitarian situation remains dire. The conflict disrupted water and power supplies, shuttered hospitals, and left bodies unburied in the streets. Aid agencies are now working to evacuate nearly 1,500 Bedouin families, while humanitarian corridors have been reopened to Damascus and nearby border crossings. The Red Crescent and other relief organizations are distributing food, medicine, and basic necessities, though shortages persist and infrastructure has been damaged.

The ceasefire itself rests on shaky foundations. Deep-rooted animosities remain unresolved, and both sides remain armed and wary.

Efforts to broker a permanent truce are complicated by mutual distrust and by the wider regional context, with Israel siding with renegade Druze leader Sheikh Hikmat Al Hijri.

Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa has called for national reconciliation and denounced sectarian violence. His government is framing the ceasefire as part of a broader stabilization strategy, one that includes prisoner releases, the restoration of basic services, and renewed dialogue with tribal and community leaders.

However, Damascus has effectively lost control of the city of Sweida and thus most of the Druze residents in the south, and has no easy route to reasserting its control over this important region.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

U.S. nuclear bombs return to RAF Lakenheath

For the first time since 2008, the United States has redeployed nuclear weapons to RAF Lakenheath, a Royal Air Force base in Suffolk that hosts U.S. Air Force units. The move marks a significant shift in NATO’s forward posture and revives a dormant nuclear role for Britain within the alliance.

The weapons in question are B61‑12 thermonuclear gravity bombs, a modernized version of a Cold War-era design. These bombs are notable for their variable yields and enhanced accuracy, thanks to newly added guidance systems. Their flexible configuration allows them to serve both tactical and strategic purposes, and they are now certified for use by fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters (many of which are based at Lakenheath alongside F-15E strike aircraft).

The deployment signals the expansion of the base’s operational capacity to include nuclear delivery missions, decades after such capabilities were thought obsolete in the United Kingdom.

While the U.K. is not formally part of NATO’s nuclear-sharing program, the hosting of these weapons on British soil effectively re-establishes a strategic role it relinquished in the early 2000s. The United States maintains control over the weapons, but their presence is a clear indicator of NATO’s evolving deterrence strategy, particularly in the face of growing threats from Russia and a more assertive China.

The deployment also comes amid reports that the United Kingdom is seeking to purchase a squadron of F-35As compatible with the B61‑12, further enmeshing the U.K. within alliance nuclear strategy.

U.S. citizens targeted by China exit bans

Tensions between the United States and China intensified this week following two high-profile cases involving exit bans imposed on American citizens, raising fresh concerns in Washington and prompting immediate corporate action.

The department has initiated diplomatic efforts to secure the individual's release and reiterated its warning that U.S. citizens of dual nationality or Chinese heritage may be particularly vulnerable to arbitrary enforcement actions when traveling to China.

These incidents come amid rising scrutiny of China's use of exit bans as a tool for leverage in diplomatic and legal disputes. Human rights groups and Western officials have long criticized such measures for their lack of legal clarity and their use as de facto coercion. While Beijing insists it is acting in accordance with domestic laws, Washington views the trend as a troubling signal for U.S.–China relations, especially as travel and commercial ties begin to recover after years of pandemic-related disruption.

The U.S. Embassy in Beijing has updated its travel advisories and is urging citizens with ties to U.S. government service or sensitive industries to reconsider travel to mainland China.

As both the State Department and major American companies continue to seek clarity and resolution, the latest incidents underscore the risks facing U.S. citizens abroad at a time when geopolitical frictions between Washington and Beijing show few signs of easing.

Ukraine war continues to escalate, ahead of expected Russian offensive

Overnight, Russia launched a large-scale aerial assault on Ukraine, striking cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad and Kherson. Approximately 426 drones and 24 missiles were deployed. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or jammed nearly 200 of them. Two civilians were killed in Kyiv, including a child among the injured. Fires broke out at a kindergarten, a shop, a subway entrance and other civilian infrastructure.

For the fifth consecutive night, Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow, disrupting air traffic at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports. Numerous flights were canceled or delayed. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted more than 100 drones during the incursion.

Russian troops continue to operate along Ukraine’s northeastern border, with active engagements near Sumy. Ukrainian forces are holding onto defensive positions in the area, but pressure on the defenders is increasing.

Moody’s upgrades Argentina’s credit rating and updates outlook

Moody’s has raised Argentina’s long-term issuer rating for both foreign and local currency debt by two notches, from Caa3 to Caa1, while maintaining it within non-investment grade territory. The outlook has been revised to stable from positive, reflecting a balance between recent improvements and lingering structural vulnerabilities.

The upgrade follows a series of macroeconomic reforms, including the removal of capital and exchange controls and the negotiation of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund. These measures have improved Argentina’s access to foreign currency markets and helped ease external financing pressures.

Moody’s noted that these changes have significantly reduced the likelihood of a credit event in the near term. However, it also warned that Argentina’s external accounts remain structurally weak and dependent on continued external support.

Argentina has returned to growth, with GDP expanding by approximately 5.9% in the first quarter of 2025. Disinflation and tighter fiscal policy have strengthened real wages and curbed reliance on central bank financing, though international reserves continue to rely heavily on external inflows.

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