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What you need to know

Ukraine cancels independence of anti-corruption bodies causing unrest amid battlefield setbacks

On Tuesday night, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Law No. 12414, a controversial measure that effectively centralizes control over anti-corruption investigations.

Roughly 8,000 people gathered in Kyiv following the announcement to protest the move, with similar demonstrations reported in other Ukrainian cities. Reaction on social media was overwhelmingly critical, and further protests are expected to continue on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s longstanding battle with corruption was a key catalyst for the 2013–2014 Euromaidan protests that ultimately led to the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych. In the aftermath, new anti-corruption institutions were established with the support (and at times, under the conditions) of the European Union and other Western partners.

These bodies were designed to function independently of presidential influence and under civilian oversight, forming part of the criteria for deeper integration with the EU and the visa-free travel regime.

To reinforce institutional independence, a separate civilian commission was created to oversee appointments to senior positions in the anti-corruption agencies, ensuring they would be made on the basis of merit rather than political loyalty.

This was a response to a pattern in which successive Ukrainian presidents appointed loyalists to powerful institutions such as the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), enabling them to shield political allies from investigation.

The rationale for independent anti-corruption bodies was clear: only a semi-autonomous agency could credibly investigate senior officials, including those close to the presidency.

The law was passed shortly after the SBU raided NABU, alleging ties to Russia and claiming that some of its personnel were compromised. Yet this assertion has been met with skepticism, especially given that several high-ranking officials within the SBU and the Armed Forces were themselves recently arrested for collaborating with Russia. Critics argue that placing NABU and SAPO under the same institutional umbrella as the SBU does little to improve the integrity of Ukraine’s anti-corruption efforts.

In a carefully worded public statement, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, appeared to express concern over the law’s implications. “Ukrainian history has taught us that a nation loses if it is torn apart by internal contradictions,” Budanov said. “We have one common problem, one enemy. Therefore, internal contradictions should be resolved through open dialogue to achieve a single common goal—to defend our country. I am sure that Ukraine will be saved by a strong army and institutions. We must show wisdom and responsibility.”

The timing of the move may complicate Kyiv’s relations with Western supporters. It will almost certainly embolden Ukraine’s critics, particularly among U.S. conservatives aligned with the MAGA, and comes just as the White House appeared to be reaffirming its support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are facing mounting pressure in the eastern town of Pokrovsk. Military analysts and journalists report that Russian units are advancing through kilometer-wide breaches in Ukrainian defensive lines. With around 50 glide bombs striking Ukrainian positions daily and the increasing use of fiber-optic drones for precision targeting, Russian forces now enjoy fire control over all key supply routes into the town. Ukrainian troops are expected to retreat soon, with Russian units already occupying parts of Pokrovsk’s eastern districts.

Russia and Ukraine delegations will also meet in Istanbul today for peace talks. No one is expecting any major developments out of these discussions.

America First

Trump unveils sweeping trade agreement with Japan

President Donald Trump has announced what he described as a landmark trade agreement between the United States and Japan, centered on a proposed $550 billion investment into the U.S. economy and the imposition of a 15% “reciprocal tariff” on Japanese exports to American markets. The announcement was made on Trump’s Truth Social platform, where he characterized the accord as “perhaps the largest deal ever made.”

According to Trump, the agreement would channel Japanese capital into U.S.-based ventures and infrastructure projects, with the United States expected to retain 90% of the resulting profits. He claimed the deal would generate hundreds of thousands of jobs across sectors including manufacturing, logistics, and energy. While no official documentation has yet been released outlining the structure of the investment vehicle, Trump’s remarks suggest a mix of sovereign wealth, corporate funding, and bilateral infrastructure commitments.

The accord also reportedly includes Japanese market liberalization in sectors long regarded as politically sensitive in Tokyo. Trump asserted that Japan would ease restrictions on imports of American automobiles, trucks, rice, and a range of agricultural products, potentially offering a boost to U.S. farmers and carmakers.

Perhaps most controversially, the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods entering the United States, which Trump described as a “reciprocal tariff” aimed at correcting what he has long portrayed as structurally unfair trade imbalances. The language reflects a departure from conventional free-trade norms toward a more protectionist orientation, even as the agreement is presented as mutually beneficial. If enacted, the tariff would mark one of the most significant shifts in U.S.-Japan trade policy since the 1980s.

With few technical details yet disclosed and no formal statement from Japanese officials, the scale and ambition of the announcement demon Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations.

By linking foreign direct investment, selective market access, and tariff asymmetry, the deal reflects a broader strategy prioritizing domestic economic outcomes while recasting longstanding alliances in more commercial terms.

If implemented as described, the agreement could fundamentally alter U.S.-Japan economic relations and reinforce Trump’s broader pivot toward bilateralism. It may also prompt wider repercussions for global trade architecture, as other U.S. partners assess whether future cooperation with Washington will require large-scale investment commitments and uneven tariff concessions.

Indonesia opens its markets to American exports in new trade deal

President Trump yesterday also announced the conclusion of a broad trade agreement between the United States and the Republic of Indonesia.

Under the terms of the deal, Indonesia will dismantle 99% of its tariff barriers, granting American industrial, technological, and agricultural goods significantly greater access to Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

In exchange, the United States will permit American-made products to enter Indonesia at a tariff rate of zero, while Indonesian exports to the U.S. will be subject to a 19% duty.

The agreement also includes provisions for Indonesia to supply the U.S. with critical minerals, including those essential to battery manufacturing and renewable energy systems. Jakarta has additionally committed to large-scale procurement agreements, valued in the tens of billions of dollars, covering purchases of Boeing aircraft, American agricultural produce, and U.S. energy exports.

Trump described the agreement as a major win for American manufacturers, automakers, farmers, and ranchers. The accord forms part of a broader strategy to strengthen economic ties with key Indo-Pacific partners while reinforcing U.S. control over strategic supply chains and trade corridors, especially for minerals critical for the tech industry.

Move fast and break things

House enters early recess amid growing pressure over Epstein disclosures

The House of Representatives has abruptly canceled its Thursday votes and entered recess on Wednesday, bringing legislative activity to a halt until September.

The decision came within hours of the House Oversight Committee voting to approve a subpoena for Ghislaine Maxwell, the longtime associate of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced the early adjournment, a move he described as an effort to avoid a politically charged vote on the release of classified files related to the Epstein case. The five-week recess, which now extends through the end of the summer, comes as allies of President Donald Trump attempt to contain a deepening controversy over how his administration has handled the matter.

In response to mounting public pressure, a senior official at the Department of Justice indicated that the administration was prepared to engage directly with Maxwell, who is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence for aiding Epstein in the recruitment and abuse of underage girls. Todd Blanche, deputy attorney-general, stated that the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice were “willing to hear” any information Maxwell may have regarding crimes committed by others.

The Trump administration is under increasing strain from its own political base following a joint memorandum issued earlier this month by the Department of Justice and the FBI.

The document concluded that there was no “credible evidence” that Epstein had blackmailed prominent individuals and dismissed widespread rumors surrounding the existence of a so-called “client list.” The statement has provoked wide outrage, including among some of Trump’s supporters, many of whom believe key information has been withheld.

The timing of the recess and the administration’s cautious messaging suggest an effort to defuse the issue before it further erodes support ahead of the autumn legislative session. However, the defensive nature of the administration’s response suggests that this issue might be the most serious political threat that it has so far faced.

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