What you need to know

Gaza approaches famine as negotiations falter

Gaza may be slipping toward a full-blown hunger crisis. The price of flour has surged to 3,750 shekels ($1,017) for a standard 25-kilogram sack. This represents an 80-fold increase since the start of the war, placing basic nutrition far beyond the reach of most Palestinian families. Humanitarian agencies warn that supply lines remain choked by conflict, while local markets are collapsing under the pressure of siege conditions and black-market speculation.

Amid this growing humanitarian emergency, the latest round of ceasefire talks in Doha appears to have collapsed. President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, confirmed that the United States is withdrawing its negotiating team “for consultations.” In a statement, Witkoff said that while U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators had “made a great effort,” Hamas “does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith.” Israeli officials echoed this view, announcing that they too were recalling their delegation from the Qatari capital.

The impasse has drawn sharp criticism from those engaged in behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Bishara Bahbah, chairman of Arab Americans for Peace (formerly Arab Americans for Trump) and a key intermediary with Hamas, accused the group of political paralysis and delay. “For days, the mediators have been waiting for Hamas’s response,” he said. “The procrastination that is taking place is costing the Palestinian people dozens of victims daily. There is no convincing reason to delay the response or demand non-essential amendments, as long as there are 60 days of negotiations without victims or bloodshed, during which all the details will be discussed.”

For now, the future of mediation efforts remains unclear. The Trump Administration insists that the framework remains viable, provided all sides show seriousness. But in Gaza, the population genuinely seems to be standing on the edge of a major famine event.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

France to recognize Palestinian statehood in September

French President Emmanuel Macron intends to formally recognize Palestinian statehood in an address to the United Nations General Assembly in September. The decision, which has been under consideration for several months, marks a significant shift in French foreign policy and is likely to reverberate across Europe and the Middle East.

French diplomats say the move is intended to revive a two-state solution amid the ongoing war in Gaza and growing international frustration over stalled negotiations. Although several European countries (including Ireland, Spain and Norway) have already announced their recognition of a Palestinian state, France’s endorsement would carry additional diplomatic weight as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

Israeli leaders of course oppose the decision. Previous efforts by European states to recognize Palestinian statehood unilaterally have been denounced by Israel as premature and counterproductive, arguing that final status issues must be resolved through direct negotiations.

Palestinian Authority officials, on the other hand, have welcomed France’s intention and are preparing for a broader diplomatic campaign at the U.N. this autumn.

The announcement will coincide with the annual opening of the General Assembly on 17 September, where Macron is scheduled to deliver one of the keynote speeches.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Zelensky moves to restore independence of anti-corruption agencies

President Volodymyr Zelensky has submitted draft legislation to the Ukrainian parliament that would strip the prosecutor general of the authority to issue directives to the country’s anti-corruption agencies.

Officials from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) welcomed the bill, stating that it would fully restore their institutional independence. They urged parliament to pass the legislation promptly when it reconvenes next week. The move follows a wave of public protests sparked by previous efforts by parliament and Zelensky to limit the agencies’ autonomy.

On the diplomatic front: The United States has called for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” in Ukraine after a third round of direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow took place in Istanbul on Wednesday.

For the second consecutive night, Ukraine launched a large-scale suicide drone swarm targeting infrastructure in south-western Russia. The most significant strike hit the Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant in Stavropol Krai, triggering emergency responses and raising alarm over potential industrial contamination.

In response, Russian aviation authorities closed numerous airports across the south for a second night. Runways in Sochi, Stavropol, Tambov, Nalchik, Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Magas and Mineralnye Vody were temporarily shut due to airspace security concerns.

Ukraine has also received a Patriot air defense system and additional interceptor missiles from Germany in the past few days, bolstering its capacity to counter Russian aerial attacks.

Meanwhile, despite military progress on the ground in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s economy continues to look shaky. Major Russian vehicle manufacturers, KAMAZ, AvtoVAZ and GAZ, have announced they will transition to a four-day work week starting 1 August. The companies cited a severe downturn in domestic demand and collapsing sales volumes as the rationale behind the decision.

The wholesale price of A-95 (super) gasoline on the Russian commodities exchange has surged to 76,293 rubles ($866) per ton this week, surpassing the previous record set in 2023. Analysts blame an acute fuel shortage for the spike, which is straining supply chains across multiple sectors. And Russia’s construction industry is showing further signs of contraction. Cement production fell by 11.2% year-on-year in June. The real estate sector also suffered a notable slowdown, with property sales in June down by as much as 50% nationwide.

Britain and Australia deepen defense ties as AUKUS treaty takes shape

British Defence Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary David Lammy were welcomed in Sydney today by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ahead of high-level talks aimed at strengthening trade relations and advancing the trilateral AUKUS partnership. The discussions center on accelerating joint efforts to build a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines—a cornerstone of the defense pact linking Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The United States, which brokered the original AUKUS agreement in 2021, is currently conducting a strategic review of the pact’s implementation.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles described the new bilateral treaty with Britain (due to be signed tomorrow in Canberra) as the most consequential defense agreement since the country’s federation in 1901.

The accord, which will bind the two nations to 50 years of defense-industrial cooperation, is intended to anchor the construction of the SSN-AUKUS submarine fleet. The vessels, based on a British design with U.S. nuclear propulsion technology, are scheduled for delivery in the 2040s.

According to the British Ministry of Defence, the agreement is expected to generate up to £20 billion ($27 billion) in exports for the United Kingdom over the next 25 years. Tens of thousands of skilled jobs are forecast to be created across British and Australian shipyards, supply chains and training facilities.

Officials say the treaty will also include provisions for technology transfer, joint personnel integration and long-term regulatory coordination. British submarines are expected to rotate through Australian ports on a more regular basis beginning later this decade, ahead of the delivery of Australia's own nuclear fleet.

Though Australian officials have framed the accord as a leap forward in sovereign capability, it remains a controversial issue at home, with concerns raised over costs, strategic dependency and environmental oversight. Beijing, meanwhile, has condemned the AUKUS arrangement as destabilizing and accuses its participants of fueling a regional arms race.

The treaty marks a major milestone in Western efforts to bolster deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

EU weighs visa incentives as migration talks with Libya stall

The European Union may link progress in migration talks with Libya to expanded visa access for Libyan nationals, according to European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson. The proposal reflects growing frustration in Brussels over stalled cooperation with Libyan authorities on border management and migrant repatriation, amid increasing arrivals across the central Mediterranean route.

Speaking at a closed-door session of the European Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs, Johansson suggested that enhanced visa facilitation could serve as a bargaining tool to encourage Tripoli’s engagement on key migration control measures.

The talks come as irregular crossings from Libya to southern Europe, particularly Italy and Malta, continue to strain the bloc’s border infrastructure. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) has reported a sharp uptick in crossings originating from western Libya, often facilitated by criminal smuggling networks with alleged links to militia groups operating with impunity.

Separately, a group of Greek Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) has called for targeted EU sanctions against Libyan entities they accuse of undermining regional stability and obstructing migration control efforts. In a formal letter to the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, the MEPs argued that Libya’s failure to rein in smuggling networks and secure detention facilities violates existing commitments under the 2017 Malta Declaration.

Brussels has yet to formally comment on whether visa liberalization will be included as a conditional incentive in the next round of migration negotiations with Libyan authorities. However, Commission officials have confirmed that a broader review of the EU’s external migration partnerships will be conducted ahead of the European Council summit in October.

Border fighting escalates between Cambodia and Thailand

The United Nations Security Council is set to convene an emergency session on Friday to address the intensifying border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand.

The Thai military has closed border crossings along hundreds of miles of the border in areas far from the ongoing clashes. The closures mark a significant escalation, suggesting that tensions now span much of the Thai-Cambodian frontier.

Thai army sources report sustained shelling from Cambodian forces beginning early Thursday morning. Gunfire was also heard overnight. More than 100,000 Thai civilians have been evacuated from areas near the border.

As the second day of fighting unfolds, Thai officials claim that Cambodian troops today tried to advance across the border in an attempt to seize territory within Thailand, before being repelled by Royal Thai Army artillery and mortar fire.

Images circulated briefly on social media on Thursday (before being swiftly removed) appeared to show Hun Sen, the president of the Cambodian Senate and former Prime Minister, reviewing military maps in an operations center. The visuals suggested that Cambodia may have been planning this incursion for some time, positioning troops and equipment in anticipation of cross-border strikes.

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