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The Trump administration has scored a major victory by securing a very unequal trade deal with the European Union. The lopsided deal came after a very disappointing China-EU summit last week. Only in the field of pharmaceuticals can one say that the Europeans extracted a major concession from the Americans, and the issue of wine and spirits is still to be resolved. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
U.S. and EU unveil sweeping trade pact
Following meetings on Sunday between President Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, the U.S. and the European Union announced a far-reaching trade accord intended to consolidate economic ties between the U.S. and the $20 trillion European bloc.
Most European goods will now face a 15% tariff, more than triple the 4.8% average rate that applied before Trump’s second term.
A uniform 15% tariff will apply to most goods, echoing the terms agreed with Japan
The EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy exports
The bloc will invest $600 billion in ‘strategic’ American sectors
Additional purchases of U.S. military hardware have been pledged
Von der Leyen acknowledged that no agreement had yet been reached on European wine and spirits, but added that discussions were ongoing.
A critical element in securing the 15% rate on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors was the EU’s commitment to increase investment in the U.S.
Von der Leyen described the agreement as bringing “predictability” for European firms. The comment appeared to allude to the erratic shifts in tariff rates and implementation dates that have characterized trade policy under Trump. Journalists have mockingly referred to the pattern as the “TACO” doctrine (Trump Always Chickens Out).
Nonetheless, from a U.S. standpoint, the deliberate ambiguity of the Trump administration’s trade policy may have yielded strategic gains for the U.S. In this deal, Europe emerges as the clear loser.
The deal also comes just days after a bruising EU-China summit that observers widely saw as a diplomatic fiasco.
Not only did Beijing unilaterally shorten the meeting by a day, it also lectured the EU leaders in a demeaning way, and subjected leaders to a series of slights, including transporting them to the venue not in the customary diplomatic vehicles with police escorts, but on a shared bus — a deliberate indignity that evoked a school field trip more than a summit of geopolitical equals.
Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal poll has claimed that the image of the Democratic party has reached its lowest point in over 30 years. Only 33% of respondents were favorable, with 63% unfavorable towards the Dems.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side
Austria hints at NATO shift amid Russian threat
Austria’s long-standing commitment to military neutrality may be nearing an end. In remarks likely to spark political debate across the Alpine republic, Minister of Foreign Affairs Beate Meinl-Reisinger suggested that Vienna should explore the possibility of joining NATO, citing escalating threats from Russia.
“Neutrality alone won’t protect us amid rising threats and Russia’s aggression,” she said in a television interview on Sunday. “A NATO debate could be fruitful, even without current majority support.”
Austria has maintained its neutral status since 1955, codified following the withdrawal of Allied forces after World War II. The stance remains popular among Austrians, many of whom view neutrality as a pillar of the country’s postwar identity. Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, have shifted the strategic balance across Europe.
Meinl-Reisinger’s statement does not herald an immediate policy change, but it represents a rare admission at the cabinet level that neutrality may no longer suffice in an increasingly unstable security environment.
While most Austrians remain opposed to alliance membership, polling suggests growing concern over the adequacy of the country’s current defense arrangements.
The foreign minister characterized her proposal not as a commitment, but as a necessary discussion in light of a resurgent Russia and the proliferation of hybrid threats across the continent.
Austria, though a member of the European Union, remains outside NATO’s collective defense framework.
Vienna’s early-stage tentative reconsideration echoes earlier debates in historically neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland, which ultimately abandoned their non-aligned stance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Heavy fighting on border with both Russia and Ukraine taking serious losses
Russian social media channels have reported the retreat of Russian Armed Forces from the village of Kindrativka in Ukraine’s Sumy region, citing heavy losses. Belarusian sources claim that nearly the entire personnel of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment has been wiped out.
Despite these reversals, Russian troops continue to advance gradually in eastern Ukraine. In the past 48 hours, they pushed forward near Vovchanski Khutory in Kharkiv region, as well as the villages of Yablunivka and Orikhove in Donetsk region. The cities of Pokrovsk, Rodynske, and Myrnohrad (located in western Donetsk Oblast and situated just west of the current front line) are reported to be close to falling.
Further west, multiple airports in the Moscow region were forced to suspend operations last night following a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the weekend that President Donald Trump’s patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin is “wearing thin.” “He’s losing his willingness to continue to wait for the Russian side to do something here to bring an end to this—this war that wasn’t his war, but he wants to see it come to an end,” Rubio told reporters.
The top U.S. diplomat noted growing frustration within the administration over China’s covert support for Russia, which continues despite repeated warnings from Washington.
Massive cyberattack hits French defense sector
Naval Group, the leading French naval shipbuilder, has sustained a significant cybersecurity breach.
More than 13GB (13.9 billion bytes) of internal data have already been leaked, reportedly as part of a larger 1TB (1.1 trillion bytes) data cache. Other major defense contractors, including Thales, Dassault Aviation, and Safran, have also been affected.
U.S. backs $4 billion loan guarantee for Polish arms purchases
The U.S. government has approved a fresh $4 billion loan guarantee to support Poland’s acquisition of American-made weaponry, bringing the total value of U.S. defense-backed financing to Warsaw to more than $15 billion.
Poland intends to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2026, one of the highest levels in NATO.
Watchlist:
ASEAN-led talks today secure Thai-Cambodian ceasefire
Fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border escalated over the weekend, with heavy exchanges of fire continuing throughout the weekend. All border crossings have been closed, and Thailand has issued an advisory urging its nationals to leave Cambodia. Cambodia has shut its airspace in areas adjacent to the frontier.
Facing setbacks on the military front, Cambodian hackers have breached several Thai government computer systems. Thai forces have reportedly regained large sections of territory captured by Cambodian troops in initial fighting. The Royal Thai Air Force is said to have inflicted substantial damage on Cambodia’s rocket units.
Approximately 120,000 Thai civilians have so far been evacuated from areas near the conflict zone, as Cambodia continues to launch rocket attacks on non-military targets.
30,000 Cambodian civilians have evacuated from border areas.
In Bangkok, scenes last week on social media of Cambodian nationals being assaulted by street gangs have prompted strong condemnation from Thai authorities, who have called for restraint and pledged to protect all foreign residents.
Thai Government House announced that Acting Prime Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maris Sangiampongsa, traveled to Kuala Lumpur today for talks with Prime Minister Hun Manet of Cambodia and his delegation. Malaysia served as mediator in the negotiations. Officials from the U.S. Department of State are also attended to support the diplomatic process.
It appears that a ceasefire has been agreed.
Acting PM Phumtham said: "Today's outcome reflects Thailand's desires for peaceful resolution" and hope it will be "carried out successfully in good faith." Cambodian PM Hun Manet meanwhile said fighting will stop tonight: "Today we had a very good meeting and a very good results,"
Meanwhile, ASEAN Chair and Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim said an observation team will be dispatched and both Thailand and Cambodia will restore communication channels.
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What happened today:
1794 – Maximilien Robespierre executed in Paris, ending the Reign of Terror. 1821 – Peru declares independence from Spain. 1914 – Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, beginning World War I. 2005 – IRA formally ends its armed campaign against British rule.
