In 2 years you will be working for AI

Or an AI will be working for you

Here's how you can future-proof yourself:

Join 1,000,000+ pros at companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon that are using AI to get ahead.

Sign up and start learning AI

What you need to know

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are meeting in Stockholm today for a second consecutive day of high-level trade negotiations, as both sides seek to extend a fragile 90-day tariff truce set to expire on 12 August.

These talks follow earlier rounds in London and Geneva and represent the most sustained U.S.–China economic engagement since President Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration.

The discussions are focused on avoiding a re-escalation of tariffs, which currently sit at 30% on Chinese exports to the U.S. and 10% on U.S. goods entering China.

In a gesture of goodwill and to keep momentum alive, the U.S. has temporarily paused certain export controls on advanced semiconductor technologies, including a suspension of restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 artificial intelligence chips.

In a related diplomatic development, the Trump administration has denied permission for Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te to transit through New York en route to a diplomatic tour of Central America in August. Lai had planned to stop in the U.S. before continuing to Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize, but Washington blocked the visit following direct objections from Beijing.

The move suggests the White House may be calibrating its Taiwan policy in parallel with its trade strategy, as part of a broader attempt to stabilize relations with China ahead of a potential Trump–Xi summit later this year.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that it is "likely" the administration will agree to extend the tariff pause, but clarified that the final decision lies with President Trump. He added that further progress will depend on China’s commitment to new purchases of American agricultural goods, its stance on digital services regulation, and the resolution of pending investment disputes. No final agreement has yet been reached, but both delegations are expected to reconvene in early August, possibly in Geneva, to finalize terms if progress continues.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Syria’s SDF group rejects U.S. envoy’s withdrawal proposal, Lebanon on edge

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has rejected a proposal by U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack, echoed by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, calling for withdrawal of its forces from from Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah and Tabqa.

In the northeast, U.S. troop levels have been reduced from around 2,000 to fewer than 1,000, with plans to consolidate military outposts. Barrack has presented this as part of President Donald Trump’s broader aim of downsizing America’s overseas military commitments. He has also supported efforts to incorporate the Syrian Democratic Forces into the apparatus of the Syrian state, although progress has been slow and remains controversial, particularly from the standpoint of Türkiye.

Over the past month, U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Türkiye Thomas Barrack has pursued a strategy of selective engagement across Lebanon and Syria, seeking to contain regional volatility while avoiding direct confrontation.

His messaging, however, has done little to please any of the parties to the various regional conflicts. On 8 July he gave a long and wide-ranging interview to Lebanese journalist Ricardo Karam. In response to a question about whether America was open to re-drawing national borders, he criticized the infamous Sykes-Picot agreement (the not fully implemented agreement between Britain and France to divide the Middle East after WWI), and then said that there were no easy answers. He went on in other media commentary to say that federalism will not work.

In Lebanon, Barrack advanced a diplomatic roadmap urging the government to disarm Hezbollah and consolidate the authority of the state. Lebanese officials submitted a formal seven-page response, which Barrack praised as constructive and thorough. However, Hezbollah rejected the proposal outright, maintaining that its weapons are integral to national defense and dismissing foreign pressure as illegitimate. Moves by the Lebanese central bank to restrict payments to Hezbollah’s financial institutions in the last few weeks has meant that Hezbollah has had to suspend payments to its members. Many in Lebanon are now talking about a return to conflict, as Hezbollah has refused any offramp offers provided.

The head of the Lebanese Forces (the most prominent political opponent to Hezbollah in Lebanon), Samir Geagea, warned on Tuesday that the Lebanese government’s continued failure to address the issue of Hezbollah’s arms could push the country toward instability. In an interview with the major regional newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, Geagea said Hezbollah’s weapons have become “useless for the protection of Lebanon and bring only damage and destruction.”

Ambassador Barrack is dual hatted as special envoy and ambassador to Türkiye. His approach to the region has been marked by pragmatism and restraint. While he has elicited some diplomatic engagement, most notably from the Lebanese government, his proposals have largely failed to sway entrenched actors such as Hezbollah. In Syria, he has endorsed political continuity over disruption, positioning himself as a stabilizing interlocutor rather than an agent of change. The results have so far been limited.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Russia’s war effort grinds on, but its economy wobbles

Over the past 24 hours, Russian and Ukrainian forces have continued to engage along several axes in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops made incremental gains near Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk oblast, while no confirmed changes were reported in the Sumy or Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces maintained limited cross-border pressure in Russia’s Kursk region, particularly around the town of Tyotkino.

In the air domain, Russia launched a series of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian military and infrastructure targets across the Donbas. In turn, Ukraine carried out drone and missile attacks on logistics facilities inside Russian territory, including in the Kursk area.

In a notable act of cyberwarfare, a Ukrainian-linked hacking group reportedly yesterday disabled Aeroflot, Russia’s national airline. The attackers are said to have destroyed 7,000 servers, triggering the collapse of the company’s digital infrastructure.

On the economic front, the Central Bank of Russia has cut its key interest rate from 20% to 18%, the second such reduction in recent months, as headline inflation eases to around 9.2%. Nonetheless, underlying structural weaknesses remain. The coal industry is in steep decline, with exports to China down by roughly 25% and domestic output weakening.

Meanwhile, cross-border transactions using a ruble-backed stablecoin have surged past $40 billion, reflecting Russia’s effort to circumvent Western sanctions and restrictions on access to the SWIFT system.

Although inflation appears to be moderating, analysts warn that the economy is edging toward recession.

Defense spending is expected to reach 6–7% of GDP in 2025, while output in civilian sectors continues to falter, underscoring the long-term fragility of a war-driven economic model.

South Korea, Japan and the U.S. reaffirm trilateral cooperation

South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Hyun has begun his first official diplomatic tour since taking office, visiting Japan and the United States in an effort to bolster trilateral coordination amid mounting regional tensions. On 29 July, Cho met in Tokyo with his Japanese counterpart, Takeshi Iwaya, marking their inaugural bilateral engagement. Later this week, he is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C., for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The visit comes at a pivotal moment, as Seoul seeks to conclude a trade agreement with Washington ahead of a looming 1 August deadline.

Beyond commercial concerns, the tour reflects a broader strategic aim: to reinforce security cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the U.S. in the face of intensifying threats from North Korea and an increasingly assertive China.

These meetings build on the framework of the Camp David Principles, a trilateral initiative established in 2023 to strengthen collective deterrence and promote regional stability.

Recent joint air exercises involving U.S. B-52 bombers and allied fighter aircraft highlight the growing military integration among the three countries.

The renewed diplomatic momentum also signals an improvement in relations between Seoul and Tokyo, following years of strain rooted in historical grievances and territorial disputes.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Indonesia signs landmark deal with Türkiye for KAAN fighter jets

On 29 July 2025, Indonesia announced a landmark agreement with Türkiye to acquire 48 KAAN fifth-generation fighter jets, marking a significant step in Jakarta’s defense modernization strategy. The deal, valued at approximately $10 billion, was concluded during the International Defence Industry Fair in Istanbul and includes provisions for joint production, technology transfer and local assembly in Indonesia.

Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2029, with the full fleet expected by 2034. For Indonesia, the acquisition diversifies its defense partnerships and strengthens its air force amid evolving regional security threats. It also advances Jakarta’s objective of establishing a more self-sufficient defense-industrial base.

For Türkiye, the agreement represents the first export of its domestically developed KAAN fighter and positions Ankara as an emerging force in the global aerospace industry. The KAAN aircraft, which completed its maiden flight in 2024, is a twin-engine stealth platform designed for air superiority missions.

Although questions remain about Indonesia’s defense budget allocations, the government has emphasized the strategic importance of investing in advanced aerial capabilities and industrial infrastructure.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Netherlands declares two Israeli ministers persona non grata

The Netherlands has declared Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir persona non grata, barring them from entering the country. The government justified the decision by citing repeated incitement to violence against Palestinians and calls for “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza.

The move aligns the Netherlands with Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway, which have imposed similar travel bans and targeted sanctions on the two ministers.

In addition, the Dutch government has summoned Israel’s ambassador to denounce what it calls an “unbearable and indefensible” humanitarian situation in Gaza, and is supporting efforts in Brussels to suspend parts of the EU–Israel trade agreement and restrict Israeli participation in European research funding programs.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief