- According to the Chinese readout of the meeting: Xi Jinping used his 24 September meeting with President Donald Trump to press China’s position on Taiwan while calling for stable U.S. ties. - Beijing reported discussions on trade, artificial intelligence, Iran and Ukraine, but few concrete agreements. Its account did not suggest Trump changed U.S. policy on Taiwan. - Russian strikes killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, prompting precautionary evacuations at two Polish border crossings. - Ukrainian drones also struck southern Russia. - Kyiv said Washington had proposed steps toward renewed talks, including a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure; no ceasefire has been agreed. - Iran said Washington had four or five days to respond to its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as about 80 countries demanded urgent passage through the waterway. Iranian airlines reportedly halted UAE flights amid U.S. sanctions pressure, although the extent of the disruption remains unclear. - Saudi Arabia said it intercepted six Houthi missiles aimed toward Taif and Yanbu. - France pledged troops, radars and air defenses for Yanbu, while Britain committed additional support. In Ethiopia, fighting spread from Tigray into Afar and Amhara, threatening the 2022 peace agreement and raising fears of a wider war. The parties dispute who started the latest escalation |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Xi presses Trump on Taiwan as Beijing seeks stable U.S. ties
Chinese President Xi Jinping urged President Donald Trump to oppose Taiwanese independence and handle Taiwan cautiously at their White House meeting on September 24, according to China's official readout. The account does not claim Trump accepted Xi's position or agreed to shift U.S. policy.
The U.S. has not yet published a readout of the meeting.
Taiwan is the readout's only clear strategic demand.
Beijing is placing Taiwan at the center of the relationship, with Trump's response still unknown.
Beijing frames a "strategic stability" agenda
China presents the meeting as implementing the leaders' earlier pledge to build a "constructive" relationship of strategic stability. Xi wants cooperation to define ties, with competition kept within limits and differences handled through dialogue.
The framing gives both sides a basis for continued engagement without resolving core disputes.
Trade deal welcomed, terms undisclosed
Xi endorsed a new arrangement reached by the two countries' economic and trade teams, but the Chinese account gives no details. He also proposed continuing talks on AI, covering its risks, potential misuse, and the need to keep it under human control.
The absence of disclosed terms makes the trade arrangement impossible to assess.
AI governance is emerging as a low-risk area for cooperation.
No movement on global flashpoints
Xi called for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and to the Islamabad memorandum. The leaders also discussed Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, but Beijing reports no agreement on either.
Engagement continues, core disputes unresolved
The likeliest outcome is steady dialogue on trade and AI while Taiwan remains the main source of friction. Key tests ahead:
Whether Washington confirms or contradicts Beijing's account on Taiwan.
Publication of the trade arrangement's terms.
Any follow-up AI talks or movement on Iran.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether protagonists in the U.S./Israel war on Iran will return to genuine peace negotiations, and the military capabilities & staying power of both sides. What impact the Iran war will have on the global economy. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community, & ability to maintain & expand stability and control inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S vs China, everyone needs to pick a side
Russian strikes near Poland test NATO's edge
Kyiv says Washington has proposed halting strikes on energy infrastructure, reopening a Black Sea grain corridor, and holding a three-way meeting with Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. This is Ukraine's account of proposed steps, not an agreed ceasefire. The proposals arrive as both sides intensify cross-border strikes.
No Russian or U.S. confirmation of the proposals has been reported.
Russian strikes kill eight, reach NATO's border
Russian strikes killed at least eight civilians across Ukraine on September 24, according to Ukrainian officials. Six died in an attack on a farm in the Kharkiv region. Poland evacuated two border crossings as a precaution as strikes hit near NATO territory.
Strikes near the Polish border raise the risk of spillover into alliance territory.
Ukraine hits southern Russian energy sites
Ukrainian drones struck southern Russia overnight September 23–24. Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar said drone debris damaged administrative buildings at an oil depot in the Kagalnitsky district, with no fire or injuries. In neighboring Krasnodar Krai, officials said debris sparked a fire at an unidentified industrial facility.
Kyiv continues targeting Russian energy assets even as an energy strike halt is on the table.
NATO boosts intelligence sharing
NATO's top commander said the alliance is expanding intelligence sharing in response to sabotage and other incidents apparently linked to Russia. The move reflects growing alliance concern over hybrid threats (read sabotage operations) beyond Ukraine's borders.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Iran sets Hormuz deadline for Washington
Iran has given the U.S. four or five days to meet its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei did not say what Tehran would do if the deadline passes. The ultimatum turns Hormuz into direct leverage over sanctions and the wider war.
Iran's price for reopening
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran sent a proposal through mediators that could reopen the strait within a week and accelerate nuclear talks. Araghchi said Iran awaits Washington's response.
Iran's conditions:
Relief from sanctions on oil exports.
Release of frozen assets.
An end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Global pressure builds on Iran and the Houthis
About 80 countries called at the UN on September 24 for Hormuz's urgent reopening. Their joint statement, read by Bahrain's foreign minister, condemned Iranian actions in the strait and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. It warned that a Houthi push toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait would further endanger maritime trade.
Iran and the Houthis call their actions defensive.
Further Houthi advances on Bab al-Mandab would threaten both of the region's key shipping chokepoints at once.
War powers fight intensifies in Washington
The standoff is deepening the debate over who can authorize the U.S. campaign against Iran. The Senate has previously blocked a resolution requiring congressional authorization for continued hostilities.
Deadline puts the ball in Washington's court
The next four to five days will show whether diplomacy or escalation prevails. Key indicators:
A U.S. response through mediators, or public rejection of Iran's terms.
Any Iranian action once the deadline expires.
Further Houthi movement toward Bab al-Mandab.
Renewed congressional moves on war authorization.
____________________
Iran's Dubai lifeline narrows
Iranian airlines have stopped flights to the United Arab Emirates after a September 23 deadline passed for companies to wind down certain services to Iran's aviation sector, Iran's ISNA news agency reported.
The U.S. measures expose firms servicing sanctioned Iranian airlines to penalties. ISNA's report does not confirm that all Iran-UAE flights, or all Iranian international routes, have stopped.
U.S. secondary sanctions are now reaching Iran's most important regional air link.
Dubai's role as Iran's gateway erodes
Dubai has long served as Iran's hub for travelers, traders, and access to foreign goods. The UAE suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran in August after renewed attacks by Tehran. Enforcement appears incomplete, with Iranian businesses and banks reportedly still operating in Dubai.
Abu Dhabi moves on a banking channel
After a U.S. sanctions threat over alleged use of Banque Misr's UAE operations by Iranian-linked companies, the UAE Central Bank launched an urgent review. It gave preliminary approval for another Egyptian bank to acquire the operations.
The action targets one specific banking concern, not a broad closure of Iranian accounts.
Washington is using sanctions threats against third-country banks to close Iranian channels in the Gulf.
Pressure builds, rupture not yet
Aviation limits, the trade suspension, and the banking review together tighten Iran's access to the UAE without fully cutting commercial ties.
____________________
France and Britain move to shield Saudi oil exports
French President Emmanuel Macron announced France will send troops, radars, and air defense systems to protect oil facilities at Yanbu. Macron called the mission defensive, aimed at protecting the site without joining the fighting. The deployment has not yet been completed.
Britain is also expanding support at Saudi Arabia's request. The UK Ministry of Defence will provide an RAF Voyager aircraft for air-to-air refueling of Saudi defensive operations, adding to British air defense equipment and personnel already protecting the kingdom.
European powers are now directly guarding Gulf energy infrastructure against Houthi attacks.
Houthis target Saudi Arabia's export bypass
Saudi air defenses intercepted six ballistic missiles fired at Taif and Yanbu on September 24, according to Major General Turki al-Malki, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition. The coalition reported no impacts and gave no details on damage or casualties from debris. Its account has not been independently verified.
The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and a site in Riyadh, without establishing any hits. Saudi civil defense issued alerts for areas including Yanbu and Taif before declaring the danger over.
Yanbu becomes a critical chokepoint
Yanbu's Red Sea terminal is Saudi Arabia's key alternative export route while Hormuz shipping is disrupted. Houthi strikes there threaten the main workaround keeping Saudi oil flowing to markets.
A successful hit on Yanbu would compound the Hormuz disruption and tighten global oil supply further.
Western defense footprint set to grow
The likeliest scenario is continued Houthi missile and drone fire at Yanbu as European deployments arrive.
Key indicators:
Arrival and scale of French forces at Yanbu.
Any confirmed damage to Aramco facilities.
Whether other European states join the defense of Saudi energy sites.
African Tinderbox
Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies
Ethiopia slides back toward full-scale war
Fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters spread into Afar and Amhara on September 24, less than four years after the 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the last war. Amanuel Assefa, vice president of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), said the two sides are in "full-blown war."
Responsibility is disputed. Tigrayan officials accuse the federal government of launching a ground and drone offensive. Getachew Reda, a former senior TPLF figure now advising Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, says Tigrayan forces struck first. Independent confirmation from affected areas is limited.
Tigrayan forces grab airports and push outward
Tigrayan forces seized airports at Mekelle, Axum, and Shire on September 23 before clashes intensified in neighboring regions. A humanitarian source reported heavy artillery fire near Yallo in Afar, with fighting also reported in Amhara. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Tigray.
Control of the airports limits federal air access and resupply into Tigray.
Former enemies unite against Abiy
Seven armed groups opposed to Abiy formed an alliance this week, including the TPLF and Amhara's Fano movement, which fought on opposite sides in 2020–22. Their capacity for sustained coordination is unproven. Still, the alliance turns a Tigray confrontation into a broader challenge to the federal government.
Trade lifeline and capital in play
It is possible to suggest potential strategic objectives, though these are not confirmed Tigrayan plans:
Amhara: an advance could pressure routes toward Addis Ababa.
Afar: fighting could threaten the Djibouti corridor, which carries most of Ethiopia's international trade.
Deteriorating Ethiopia–Eritrea relations raise the risk of a regional war, though Eritrean involvement in this offensive has not been established.
A longer, wider war looms
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a "broader and more devastating conflict" and called for civilian protection, humanitarian access, and renewed talks under the Pretoria framework. Large populations still displaced from the last war leave northern Ethiopia highly exposed.
Sign up link: https://www.center-of-gravity.info
Inside Track: https://www.center-of-gravity.info/upgrade
What happened today:
1066 - England defeats a Norwegian invasion at the Battle of Stamford Bridge. 1493 - Christopher Columbus leaves Spain on his second voyage to the Americas. 1789 - The U.S. Congress sends twelve proposed constitutional amendments to the states, including the future Bill of Rights. 1918 - The Battle of Megiddo ends in a decisive Allied victory in Ottoman Palestine. 1957 - U.S. Army troops escort Black students into Little Rock Central High School. 1959 - Ceylonese Prime Minister S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike is shot; he dies the following day. 1969 - The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation is founded at the Rabat summit. 1983 - Thirty-eight Irish Republican Army prisoners escape from Northern Ireland’s Maze Prison. 1987 - Sitiveni Rabuka leads a second military coup in Fiji.
