What you need to know

Regional powers rush to Tehran to head off new U.S. strikes

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye sent senior security officials to Tehran on Oct. 26 to prevent renewed large-scale war among Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Talks remain stalled, and Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports holds. Qatari mediators visited a day earlier, reportedly in coordination with Washington. No breakthrough has been announced.

Tehran’s terms remain a moving target

Iran says it will negotiate, but its messaging conflicts. Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam says Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its naval blockade. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim news agency rejects a simple swap and insists earlier conditions stand. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei says intermediaries still carry messages but calls U.S. demands unacceptable.

Washington weighs a post-midterm strike campaign

The Atlantic reports the U.S. is considering several days of strikes on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, energy infrastructure, and nuclear facilities, possibly after the Nov. 3 midterms. Officials say no final decision has been made. That timeline sets the clock for the diplomatic push.

U.S. Central Command said Oct. 25 that Hormuz’s main transit routes are clear of Iranian mines. More than 95% of ships have crossed safely in recent months, and U.S. forces have assisted over 3,000 merchant vessels in six months. Those figures measure safe passages, not volumes, so they don’t show a return to prewar traffic.

Oil dips on diplomacy but stays above $100

Traders weighed the mediation push against ongoing supply threats. Prices eased but remain at crisis levels.

Houthis keep the Saudi front active

The Houthis fired another missile toward Riyadh on Monday and claimed they targeted King Khalid International Airport. Saudi Arabia says it intercepted the missile and struck Houthi missile facilities in Yemen in response. No hit on the airport has been established.

The pre-midterm window decides the path

Diplomacy now runs against a likely U.S. strike window that opens after Nov. 3. Without a deal that reconciles Iran’s Hormuz-for-blockade offer with its harder-line public conditions, the risk of multiday strikes on Iranian energy and nuclear sites rises.

Birthplace of civilization

Israel to vote with Netanyahu vulnerable but no clear path to replace him

Israelis vote Oct. 27 in an election that could end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure. Final polls show his opponents winning more seats than his allies but struggling to reach a governing majority. It is the first national vote since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, after three years of war and domestic division.

Polls put both blocs short of 61 seats

Final TV polls on Oct. 23 gave Netanyahu’s allies 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, short of the 61 needed for a majority. The opposition “change bloc” drew 52 to 56 seats, with Arab-led parties at 14 to 16. Poll publication is banned until voting ends.

Opposition’s edge doesn’t convert into a government

Opposition leaders have not agreed on a prime ministerial candidate, and disputes over coalition partners could block government formation. Both routes to 61 seats carry political costs.

New leadership would bring little regional policy change

A change of government would not fundamentally shift Israel’s regional posture. Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood, though he pledges tougher action on settler violence. His prospective partners have shelved disagreements over the Palestinians to focus on ousting Netanyahu.

Deadlock is the likeliest near-term outcome

Coalition talks could take weeks. If neither camp forms a government, Israel faces another election, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister.

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Lieberman seeks treason probe of Netanyahu on election eve

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman asked Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara on Oct. 26 to open a criminal investigation into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for suspected treason. Lieberman alleges Netanyahu is trying to provoke a confrontation with Iran to avert defeat in the Oct. 27 election. His letter reportedly offers no specific evidence of the alleged offense.

Reported clash with the military chief fuels the charge

A Channel 12 report on Oct. 25 described a confrontation between Netanyahu and military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir over proposed Iran-related military action. Zamir reportedly demanded written documentation of the operation’s legal authorization. Netanyahu dismissed the report.

Lieberman, who leads the nationalist Yisrael Beytenu party, claims Netanyahu spent the past month pressuring security chiefs toward steps that could trigger an Iranian response. He accuses Netanyahu of risking soldiers’ lives for political survival.

Accusation adds to Netanyahu’s legal exposure

The allegation lands as Netanyahu seeks reelection while standing trial for corruption, which he denies. Lieberman, a former ally, quit as defense minister in November 2018 over a Hamas ceasefire and has since become a leading opponent.

Attorney general’s response is the next test

The near-term risk is political, not legal: the claim feeds election-day scrutiny of any Iran-related military move. Whether Baharav-Miara acts, and whether further evidence of the Netanyahu-Zamir dispute surfaces, will determine if the accusation gains legal weight.

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Israel’s Hebron operation following checkpoint attack

Israeli forces pressed a major operation in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron on Oct. 26, three days after two Palestinian gunmen killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded three at a nearby checkpoint. Israeli forces killed both attackers. The response has since widened from a manhunt into a campaign that has displaced thousands of residents.

Raids reach residential districts

The operation includes raids, demolitions, road closures, and orders for residents to leave their homes. Forces have entered districts including Al-Jaladah and Ein Deir Baha. The military says it is searching for militants and weapons.

Residents report overnight evacuation warnings and leaving with few belongings. Hebron Mayor Yousef Al-Jaabari calls the operation collective punishment, while Israeli authorities frame it as a security response to the checkpoint attack.

Displacement claims climb

Early reports put displacement at about 250 families. Palestinian figures now exceed 2,600 people, though none are independently verified.

Hebron becomes an election-eve test of Netanyahu’s security record

The operation runs into Israel’s Oct. 27 national election, where the government’s security record is a central issue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised a forceful response to the shooting, tying the campaign’s outcome to his final pitch to voters. Rising displacement figures and continued demolitions raise the risk of further West Bank escalation as the vote unfolds.

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Jordan arrests suspects in deadly Karak church attack

Jordanian security forces wounded and arrested three armed suspects on Oct. 26 after a shootout in Karak governorate. Interior Minister Mazen al-Faraya says the men carried out the Oct. 23 shooting on mourners at a Greek Orthodox church funeral in the village of Hamoud. That attack killed nine people and wounded dozens.

Rare mass violence prompts royal pledge of punishment

The attack is an unusual case of mass violence in Jordan and has shaken the local Christian community. King Abdullah II ordered a forceful security response and vowed to punish the attackers and anyone seeking to undermine national unity.

The new Monroe Doctrine with a Trump Corollary

Lula wins fourth term as Bolsonaro moves to annul the vote

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With all votes counted, Lula leads with about 51.8% to Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, a margin of nearly 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro refuses to recognize the result and says he will seek annulment.

Late voting extension creates an uneven playing field

Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting nationwide by two hours, from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., issuing the order around scheduled closing time. Both campaigns had sought extra time in areas hit by transport shortages or severe weather. Some polling stations had already shut, and closed electronic machines could not accept more ballots, so the extension applied only to stations still open.

Bolsonaro’s challenge targets the disparity, not the count

Bolsonaro’s campaign requested extensions in select municipalities but disputes the nationwide, end-of-day measure. Brazilian legal commentators criticize how the decision was handled but see annulment of the whole election as unlikely. No evidence shows electronic vote totals were manipulated.

Bolsonaro’s rejection lacks broad opposition backing

Leaders outside Lula’s camp are not uniformly lining up behind Bolsonaro. The presidents of Republicanos and the Brazilian Democratic Movement have congratulated Lula, weakening the annulment push politically.

Lula likely keeps the win but governs under pressure

Lula’s victory will most likely survive the legal challenge, but the dispute gives opponents a lasting line of attack on his mandate. He also faces a Congress dominated by right-wing parties, which will complicate his legislative agenda. The scale and distribution of votes cast during the extra two hours is the key variable in how long the challenge drags on.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Ukraine’s southeast counterattack pins down Russian reserves

Ukrainian forces are making slow but tactically significant gains around Oleksandrivka as of Oct. 26, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The advance could threaten Russian supply routes feeding operations toward Hulyaipole. Neither side has achieved a confirmed operational breakthrough.

Russia keeps grinding in Donetsk

Moscow is sustaining pressure across the east despite the southeastern diversion. ISW recorded a recent Russian advance in the Novopavlivka direction. Ukrainian attack tallies are unverified and don’t establish territorial change.

Air war stays at high intensity

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia launched about 2,300 attack drones, 1,600 guided aerial bombs, and 48 missiles in the week ending Oct. 25. The figures are unverified. Ukraine continues long-range strikes on industrial facilities inside Russia.

U.S. support links back online

Zelenskyy says U.S. warnings of incoming Russian ballistic-missile attacks and normal Starshield satellite service have been restored after disruptions earlier in October. The fix should aid Ukrainian air defenses and drone operations, though its battlefield effect remains unclear.

Attrition, not breakthrough, is the likely trajectory

The Oleksandrivka gains matter most if they force Russia to keep diverting units from Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole. Absent that, expect continued Russian pressure in Donetsk with incremental territorial shifts on both sides.

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U.S. brokers a narrow truce for occupied Oleshky

The White House announced Oct. 23 a localized humanitarian truce between Russia and Ukraine to allow aid deliveries and civilian evacuations from Russian-occupied Oleshky, in Ukraine’s Kherson region. First Lady Melania Trump was involved in brokering the deal. Ukrainian officials have confirmed preparations.

Timeline runs through Oct. 29

The cessation of fire is set to begin Oct. 27, with the humanitarian operation scheduled for Oct. 29. Implementation has not yet started.

Execution will test whether local deals can hold

The arrangement’s value depends on both sides observing the pause through the mission date. A successful operation would offer a model for further localized humanitarian arrangements, while a breach would show the limits of narrow truces without a wider ceasefire.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics becomes more polarized, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Serbia’s student movement ousts Vučić’s party

Serbia’s student-backed opposition won the Oct. 25 parliamentary election, and President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat. The result ends the Serbian Progressive Party’s hold on government since 2012 after nearly two years of protests against corruption and concentrated power. Final results were still pending Oct. 26.

Students are on track for an outright majority

Vučić says preliminary estimates give the Student List 135 to 140 seats in the 250-member parliament, versus about 105 for his bloc. That clears the 126 needed to govern without a coalition partner.

A railway disaster became a national revolt

The movement began after a railway station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people. Demands for accountability grew into a nationwide challenge to the ruling party, with students mobilizing voters around corruption, institutional independence, and political freedoms.

Opposition won despite an uneven field

International monitors and the EU had raised concerns about government dominance of mainstream media and pressure on activists. Vučić denied charges of authoritarianism and corruption and accused the movement of receiving foreign support.

Governing is the harder test

The Student List must turn a broad protest coalition into a functioning government. Its representatives still need to agree on leadership and economic policy while meeting expectations for judicial independence, freer media, and corruption investigations.

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France’s protest movement collides with a fragile budget fight

France faces another week of pressure from mass demonstrations over living costs and public services, with rallies planned for Oct. 31 and a nationwide strike Nov. 5. The unrest coincides with a parliamentary battle over the 2027 budget that leaves the government little room to meet protesters’ demands. Talks with unions and student representatives have produced no deal.

Heavy policing contains, but doesn’t end, the unrest

The Interior Ministry says 410,000 people demonstrated nationwide on Oct. 24, including 110,000 in Paris. The CGT union put turnout near 800,000. Clashes hit several cities, but a 70,000-officer deployment prevented a repeat of the previous weekend’s widespread looting.

A school protest has become a cost-of-living revolt

The movement began in September over teacher shortages and school conditions. It now draws workers and Yellow Vest activists, merging demands for education funding, higher wages, and relief from fuel and housing costs.

Budget math constrains any concessions

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government faces an Oct. 27 vote on the budget’s revenue provisions after amendments delayed debate. Budget Minister David Amiel warns that changes already approved would add €10 billion ($11.4 billion) to the deficit.

Markets offer a brief reprieve

French bonds rallied Oct. 26 after Moody’s kept France’s Aa3 rating. Ten-year yields eased to about 4.98%.

Oct. 27 vote sets the tone for the next mobilization

Lecornu must hold his minority together on revenues while finding a settlement before the Oct. 31 rallies and Nov. 5 strike. Without a deal, the government faces escalating street pressure, a strained police force, and further budget amendments that widen the deficit.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Algeria moves to put troops in the Sahel

Algeria’s parliament on Oct. 25 approved deploying army units to Niger, authorizing a presence at Madama, a former French base near the Libyan border. It would be Algeria’s first foreign troop deployment since it backed Egypt in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. No troops have officially deployed, and numbers, timing, and operational details remain undisclosed.

Mission framed as asset protection, not combat

Algerian Senator Belkacem Boulghiti says the force would protect economic and strategic interests, particularly oil facilities and energy infrastructure. He rules out combat operations.

Energy corridor drives the move

The deployment would secure Algeria’s stake in the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which would carry Nigerian gas through Niger to Algeria and European markets. State energy company Sonatrach is involved in the project.

Algiers steps into a jihadist-contested region

The move gives Algeria a direct ground presence in a Sahel state fighting jihadist insurgencies. It follows a thaw with Niger’s military government after tensions over the 2023 coup.

Scope will define the risk

Undisclosed troop numbers and rules of engagement leave the mission’s footprint unclear. A non-combat posture near insurgent-active areas and the Libyan border carries a risk of mission creep if Algerian forces or energy sites come under attack.

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Mali reports 54 civilians killed near Ménaka

Mali’s military says it found 54 civilian bodies at Tagadayat, about 35 kilometers (22 miles) southeast of Ménaka. It blames Islamic State militants, citing initial witness accounts. A joint patrol reportedly evacuated nine survivors.

Two rival jihadist groups keep up pressure

Ménaka, in eastern Mali near Niger, is a stronghold of Islamic State’s Sahel affiliate. Its expansion exposes rural communities to massacres, displacement, and reprisals against people accused of aiding government forces. The group also fights al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).

Mali’s pivot to Russia hasn’t stemmed the insurgency

The conflict began with a 2012 Tuareg rebellion that jihadists exploited to seize territory. France’s 2013 intervention retook major towns but failed to stop the insurgency’s spread into central Mali and neighboring states. Juntas that took power in 2020 and 2021 broke with France and deepened security ties with Russia.

Sahel juntas test a cautious reopening with ECOWAS

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States and left ECOWAS over disputes about military rule. Talks reported Oct. 18 reopened discussions on future cooperation, with no return to the bloc announced.

Civilian toll likely to keep rising

With Islamic State and JNIM both active and expanding, rural areas in eastern and central Mali face continued mass-casualty attacks. Any practical security cooperation with ECOWAS is the clearest test of whether the regional realignment can ease the insurgency.

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