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What you need to know

Trump extends pause on Iran energy strikes as conflict grinds on

President Donald Trump said on Thursday, 26 March, that he was extending the pause on U.S. strikes against Iran’s energy facilities by ten days, moving the deadline to 6 April at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the decision came at the Iranian government’s request and added that talks were continuing and “going very well”.

The announcement suggested some room for diplomacy, but it did little to change the broader impression that the conflict remains on an escalatory course. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington is considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Even so, apart from two U.S. Marine Corps expeditionary units, the forces deployed so far do not appear to include the heavy-lift equipment needed for sustained ground operations. Such materiel would probably take weeks to move from the U.S. East Coast.

Meanwhile, the war’s maritime and regional dimensions continue to widen. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, confirmed the assassination of Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, in Bandar Abbas. Tangsiri had been one of the Islamic Republic’s most prominent naval commanders, and his killing is likely to increase pressure on Iran’s command structure while raising the risk of retaliation beyond Iran’s borders.

Iranian state-affiliated media have made that possibility plain.

Fars News Agency reported that Tehran could regard a number of sites in Lebanon, Syria, and Djibouti as legitimate targets. These reportedly include the area of Beirut’s old airport, which Iran claims hosts a U.S. logistics base; the Four Seasons Hotel Damascus, the Sheraton Damascus Hotel, and the Presidential Palace in Damascus, which it says are used by Israeli, American, and British advisors; and Djibouti International Airport, where it claims marine forces have been deployed.

Across the Gulf, fresh attacks highlighted how far the conflict is now touching civilian and energy infrastructure. The UAE said that Iran fired 15 missiles and 11 UAVs on Wednesday, 25 March, ending a brief lull. Falling debris after the interception of a ballistic missile on Sweihan Street in Abu Dhabi reportedly killed two unidentified individuals, injured three others, and damaged several vehicles.

Saudi Arabia also reported renewed activity, saying its defenses destroyed two drones over the Eastern Province overnight. Separate reporting on Thursday suggested that more than 30 drones had earlier been intercepted there, pointing to continued attacks and uneven official disclosure. Kuwait said its defense ministry had detected six hostile ballistic missiles in Kuwaiti airspace over the previous 24 hours, a day after a drone strike hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport.

Bahrain, for its part, said on Thursday that its air defenses had destroyed 154 ballistic missiles and 350 drones since the start of the Iranian attacks. No fresh public tally was available from Qatar on Friday morning. Qatar appears to have reached some form of arrangement with Iran to halt attacks, as it is reopening schools and other public institutions.

Fars has also published what it says is a target list of UAE energy infrastructure that could be struck if the U.S. launches a ground operation against Kharg Island or other Iranian territory. The alleged list includes desalination plants, nuclear power facilities, and other power hubs, suggesting that the war’s next phase could fall as heavily on civilian systems as on military ones.

The ultimate complex system

WTO warns global trade faces its heaviest strain in 80 years

The World Trade Organization warned on Thursday that the global trading system is undergoing its most severe disruption in 80 years, as officials gathered in Yaoundé for a ministerial meeting clouded by war, tariffs and growing doubts about the future of the rules-based trading order. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the multilateral system had “irrevocably changed” and urged members to spend less time trying to revive the old order and more time adjusting to a more fractured one.

Her comments reflected rising concern inside the WTO about the combined effect of geopolitical conflict, especially in the Middle East, the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and the continued paralysis of the organization’s dispute-settlement system. Okonjo-Iweala also pointed to poor transparency on subsidies: only 64 of the WTO’s 166 members have filed subsidy notifications for 2025, a measure of the mistrust weighing on negotiations.

The WTO is not arguing that world trade has collapsed. Its case, rather, is that the political and institutional framework that has governed much of post-war commerce is under heavy pressure. About 72% of global trade still takes place under WTO rules, but officials increasingly fear that, if reform continues to stall, major powers will drift further toward rival blocs and narrower group-based arrangements.

The Yaoundé meeting is therefore becoming a test not just of whether the WTO can still broker agreements, but of whether it can remain relevant in an age of economic coercion, fragmented supply chains and intensifying strategic rivalry.

Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens fears of a broader energy shock

Due to its effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil exports are now reportedly running at around 4 million barrels a day, roughly double their pre-war level. Kharg Island alone is said to be loading between 1.1 million and 1.5 million barrels a day.

Since 1 March, around three-quarters of all Hormuz transits have reportedly been Iranian cargoes. At $100 a barrel, that would imply daily Iranian oil revenue of roughly $140 million. China is believed to be taking more than 90% of these shipments, while Washington appears willing to tolerate the trade in order to avoid a deeper collapse in global supply.

Commercial shipping is also adapting. It was reported earlier that COSCO was using an Iranian-administered safe-passage channel through Hormuz. That now appears to have been wrong. Instead, the company has resumed container bookings to Gulf ports through the Fujairah land bridge. Ships are offloading outside the Strait, after which cargo is moved onward by truck. If that model proves viable, other carriers may follow. Iran’s safe-passage system may still apply to some vessels, but COSCO seems to have chosen a bypass.

The wider hydrocarbon picture is bleak. According to an assessment by the French government, 30% to 40% of Gulf refining capacity has been destroyed, leaving 11 million barrels a day offline, with full repairs potentially taking up to three years.

Global oil demand stands at roughly 105 million barrels a day. A full closure of Hormuz would remove about 20 million barrels a day from the market. Refinery shutdowns would cut a further 8 million barrels a day, while damaged refineries would remove another 1.4 million.

There are mitigating measures, but nowhere near enough. Strategic petroleum reserves could contribute around 2 million barrels a day. Saudi pipeline rerouting might add 3 million. The Fujairah pipeline could provide another 500,000. Oil already on the water may offer 1.9 million more. Even after those offsets, the net shock would still amount to about 24 million barrels a day. In volume terms, that would exceed the roughly 23-million-barrel-a-day demand shock seen during the second quarter of 2020 at the height of the pandemic. This time, however, the problem is not collapsing demand, but collapsing supply.

The consequences are spreading well beyond the Gulf. Sri Lanka is already rationing fuel, shifting to a four-day work week, and closing schools. Pakistan is grappling with sharp overnight price increases, long fuel lines, and its own four-day work week. India is said to have only nine days of reserves left and is scrambling for emergency suppliers. South Korea reportedly has around 50 days. Japan says it holds 254 days of reserves, though critics argue that its readily usable stocks are far lower, perhaps closer to 95 days.

In Europe, the picture is deteriorating quickly. Britain has been warned that shortages could begin in April. Germany has seen gasoline prices jump by 30% and has activated an EU emergency response. French motorists are paying about 30% more at the pump than they were eight weeks ago. South Africa’s government insists supplies remain stable, though images of empty pumps on social media suggest growing public unease. Türkiye is facing tighter stocks, rising inflation, and renewed pressure on the lira. Brazil is watching the situation closely. Australia remains vulnerable to tanker delays and is relying heavily on coordinated action by the International Energy Agency. The U.S., by contrast, is responding through a mix of strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns, state-level gas-tax suspensions, and what appears to be a quiet easing of pressure on Iranian exports. China has stockpiled heavily, banned exports, and continues buying Iranian crude.

All that makes official reassurance look increasingly fragile. Around one-fifth of global oil supply is now effectively gone or impaired. OPEC’s response, at 206,000 barrels a day, covers only a tiny share of the gap.

The aviation sector is feeling the effects too. Outside the Gulf, disruption is spreading less through blanket airport closures than through higher fuel costs, longer routes, and selective schedule cuts. According to IATA data, global jet-fuel prices had nearly doubled since the conflict began, reaching $197 a barrel by 20 March. Cathay Pacific has responded by raising fuel surcharges by 34% from 1 April. Vietnamese airlines are preparing schedule reductions next month because of fuel-supply constraints. Qantas, by contrast, is adding capacity to Europe as passengers shift away from the traditional Gulf hub model while Dubai and Doha remain constrained.

Gulf aviation is still functioning, but well below normal levels and with little margin for further disruption. Dubai Airports says flights at DXB and DWC are gradually resuming, though some services remain delayed or canceled because of the temporary partial closure of UAE airspace. Passengers are being advised not to travel to the airport without a confirmed departure time. Emirates has warned of additional disruption for departures from Dubai between 23 and 27 March because of adverse weather. Etihad says it will remain on a limited commercial schedule until 30 April, serving around 80 destinations as part of a phased resumption. Qatar Airways is operating a revised and limited schedule until 28 March, with another restricted timetable already published for 29 March onward.

Gas markets are under strain as well. Dutch storage levels have fallen below 6%, reportedly a record low for the past decade, reflecting the severity of the halt in Qatari LNG supplies to Europe. Matters have been made worse by Cyclone Narelle, which has shut three Australian LNG plants, removing about 8% of global supply just as the market is already reeling from damage in Qatar and disruption around Hormuz. Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone plants, along with Woodside’s North West Shelf facility, are offline. The storm, a Category 4 system with gusts of up to 250 km/h (155 mph), has forced offshore evacuations. Production is expected to resume only when conditions are safe.

LNG prices are already up 90% since the war began. For buyers trying to replace lost Qatari supply, this is becoming an exceptionally difficult market. The immediate danger is no longer confined to the Gulf battlefield. It is spreading through tank farms, pipelines, shipping routes, airports, and power systems. The true energy crisis may still be in its early stages.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Drone swarms over Barksdale raise alarms over U.S. homeland defense

Unauthorized drones repeatedly entered the airspace above Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home to nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and an important node in the Air Force’s nuclear command structure, in an episode that appears more troubling than initially disclosed. According to a confidential internal briefing reviewed by ABC News, security personnel observed multiple waves of 12 to 15 drones between 9 and 15 March flying over sensitive parts of the base, including the flight line. The aircraft reportedly displayed non-commercial transmission characteristics, long-range control links, and resistance to jamming. Base officials also confirmed multiple unauthorized incursions during that week.

The pattern suggested something more deliberate than the work of hobbyists. ABC reported that the drones entered and left the base in ways that may have been designed to conceal their operators, while lights on the aircraft may have been used to test security responses. The flights reportedly lasted about four hours each day and caused serious operational concern at one of America’s most sensitive bomber installations. There is still no public evidence identifying who launched them, and no verified basis for attributing the incursions to Iran or to any other foreign state.

The episode also does not appear to be isolated. Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed the Barksdale incursions, while General Gregory Guillot, head of U.S. Northern Command, told lawmakers that a counter-drone “flyaway kit” separately detected and defeated small drones over an undisclosed “strategic U.S. installation” in the early hours of Operation Epic Fury. Separate press reports have also described recent drone sightings over Fort Lesley J. McNair in Washington. Taken together, the incidents point to a growing weakness: small unmanned systems are proving capable of probing sensitive U.S. military sites on American soil during a period of heightened international tension.

Move fast and break things

Senate moves to reopen most of DHS, leaving ICE & Border Patrol outside deal

In a rare overnight session, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved a stopgap measure to restore funding for most of the Department of Homeland Security, leaving Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the U.S. Border Patrol outside the package after weeks of partisan deadlock. The measure would finance agencies such as the Transportation Security Administration, FEMA and the Coast Guard, while leaving immigration-enforcement funding to a separate political battle.

The vote amounted to a notable, though incomplete, advance in a budget standoff that has partially shut down DHS since 13 February and placed airport operations under growing strain. Senate leaders pushed the bill through in the early hours of Friday as pressure mounted over unpaid TSA staff, rising absenteeism and widening disruption at major airports. The Senate approved the package unanimously, without a roll-call vote, and sent it to the House, where its fate appears less certain.

The compromise shows how politically fraught immigration enforcement has become. Democrats refused to support a broader DHS package without changes to enforcement practices, especially after public criticism of recent federal immigration operations. Republicans, for their part, accepted a narrower bill in order to restart the most visible parts of homeland-security activity, especially airport screening, while making clear that they intend to pursue ICE funding separately.

What the deal does not do may prove as important as what it does. The legislation places no new operational limits on ICE or other immigration authorities. In practice, immigration enforcement has largely continued because earlier legislation had already provided substantial funding for those operations. That means the Senate has eased the immediate airport and payroll crunch without resolving the wider dispute over the deportation policy of President Donald Trump’s administration.

If the House passes the measure, Congress will have contained the most disruptive effects of the shutdown. But the deeper fight over money, oversight and the reach of federal immigration enforcement is plainly far from settled

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief

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