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What you need to know

KOSPI's AI trade collapses in record rout

South Korea's KOSPI index lost as much as 12.6% on Wednesday, its second straight double-digit swing after Tuesday's 10.8% close-lower, marking the index's worst two-day decline on record. A market-wide circuit breaker halted trading as leveraged bets on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix unwound rapidly.

The index is now down about 34% from its June peak and fell 29% in July alone, surpassing the previous monthly record set during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It had surged roughly 110% earlier this year on AI enthusiasm before the reversal.

Chip giants take the direct hit

SK Hynix dropped as much as 16% Wednesday after nearly 15% the prior day. Samsung fell almost 10%, adding to a 13%-plus loss on Tuesday. Forced liquidation by over-leveraged retail investors, unable to meet margin calls, amplified the slide.

The trigger was ironic: SK Hynix posted record revenue and operating profit more than six times higher than a year earlier, driven by high-bandwidth memory demand for AI chips. But results still missed sky-high expectations already priced into shares, showing growth alone no longer satisfies investors in this trade.

Selloff spreads well beyond Korea

The PHLX Semiconductor Index, tracking major U.S.-listed chipmakers, fell about 22.6% in July, its worst month since September 2001. Every one of its 30 constituents traded below their 50-day moving average, indicating the pullback is sector-wide, not company-specific.

SanDisk has been hit hardest: shares fell over 17% at one point Wednesday, down roughly 30% over five sessions and more than 50% from June's record, wiping out an estimated $180 billion to $200 billion in market value. Micron, AMD, Western Digital, Japan's Kioxia, and equipment makers are all under pressure.

China competition adds a strategic layer

Investor anxiety extends beyond valuation. Reports of Chinese progress in memory chips and deep-ultraviolet lithography raise concern that Beijing could cut foreign-tech dependence faster than expected. The strong market debut of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has reinforced fears that Chinese producers could challenge South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. firms in both conventional and AI-related memory.

Not (yet) a demand collapse

There's no clear evidence of an actual drop in semiconductor demand or industrial capacity. SK Hynix's earnings remain record-setting, and demand for high-bandwidth memory stays strong, with long-term supply deals still in place. Analysts read this as a repricing of excessive valuation and leverage, not proof the AI or memory cycle has ended.

South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol has said the government is reviewing the disruption, including leveraged ETFs and other products that amplify volatility. Restrictions on short selling, leveraged products, or margin lending could follow if instability continues.

Why this matters

Samsung and SK Hynix aren't just companies, they're strategic assets tied to South Korea's exports and its economic-security relationship with the U.S. A market this concentrated in two firms leaves the country exposed to any shift in AI investment sentiment, memory demand, or Chinese competitive gains.

Birthplace of civilization

Saudi Arabia joins U.S. strikes inside Iraq for first time

U.S. and Saudi fighter aircraft carried out coordinated strikes on Iran-aligned militia positions across Iraq on July 28, marking Riyadh's first publicly acknowledged participation in a large-scale attack inside the country. The strikes came after more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours targeting U.S. forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.

U.S. Central Command said the operation hit logistics and weapons facilities in eastern Iraq, attributing direction to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Attacks on American positions reportedly failed. Saudi Arabia invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter, the self-defense provision, while stating it does not want wider escalation.

Iraqi casualties expose a sovereignty problem

Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said at least 10 personnel were killed and six wounded, with earlier tolls of eight dead and four wounded suggesting the count is still being revised. The deadliest hits reportedly struck the 4th Regiment/30th Brigade headquarters and the Armour Combat Directorate headquarters in the Nineveh Plain.

The strikes expose a legal and political contradiction. Washington and Riyadh call the targets IRGC-directed terrorist facilities, but the PMF is formally part of Iraq's state security structure and reports to the prime minister, so it frames the same sites as official government headquarters. That gap turns a deterrence operation against militias into what Baghdad can plausibly call an attack on the Iraqi state.

Baghdad squeezed between Washington and Tehran

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi convened an emergency National Security Council meeting after the strikes. His government had already opened an investigation into the anti-Saudi drone attacks and is pushing armed factions toward a state-control deadline at the end of September.

Iraq depends on the U.S. for security support, has close economic ties with the U.S., and warming relations with Saudi Arabia; yet Iran-backed factions remain embedded in its security forces and political system. Any militia retaliation risks drawing further foreign strikes onto Iraqi soil, weakening Baghdad's authority and pulling the country deeper into direct battlefield status in the U.S.-Iran confrontation.

Saudi policy shift and market reaction

Riyadh has historically avoided direct involvement in the U.S.-Iran confrontation, relying on air defenses and diplomacy instead. Acknowledging offensive strikes inside Iraq shows that attacks on its energy infrastructure have crossed a threshold Saudi leadership is no longer willing to absorb passively.

The strikes landed amid a broader spike in regional activity. Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. installations in Jordan, where Jordanian air defenses say they intercepted five, and the IRGC claimed attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose more than $3 a barrel on escalation risk.

What to watch

The new Monroe Doctrine with a Trump Corollary

Fujimori's win extends Latin America's rightward turn

Keiko Fujimori was sworn in as Peru's president on July 28, completing a political comeback and returning her family to power more than 25 years after her father's government fell. She becomes Peru's first elected woman president, edging leftist congressman Roberto Sánchez by fewer than 50,000 of roughly 18 million votes cast (50.135% to 49.865%).

Fujimori is Peru's tenth president since 2016, and none of her predecessors finished a full five-year term. She takes office in unusually strong shape by comparison: her Popular Force party holds the largest minority bloc in the restored bicameral Congress, and an alliance with another conservative party gives her government real Senate influence.

Region's rightward shift picks up another win

Peru joins Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Panama in recent conservative gains, with Colombia's conservative president-elect, Abelardo de la Espriella, set to be inaugurated soon. The trend reverses the leftist "pink tide" of the early 2020s, but reflects voter anger over crime and stagnation more than ideological conversion.

Fujimori campaigned on an "iron fist" approach to organized crime, a CECOT-style prison modeled on El Salvador's, expanded military policing power, and anonymous judges for dangerous criminal cases. She's also pledged private infrastructure investment and a lighter government footprint on business.

Washington sees an opening, Beijing already has one

Fujimori has signaled interest in joining Washington's proposed "Shield of the Americas" security initiative, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau met her before leading the American delegation to her inauguration. The Trump administration links organized crime, migration, and China competition as a single strategic problem, pushing joint counter-narcotics operations and infrastructure protection across the region.

But China is already deeply embedded in Peru's economy. Chinese firms operate the Las Bambas and Toromocho copper mines, which received more than $16 billion in Chinese financing between 2010 and 2023, including roughly $12.3 billion for Las Bambas alone. Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer, a metal central to EVs, renewables, data centers, and military technology, making its alignment strategically significant beyond South America.

Selective alignment, not a clean break, is the likely path

Fujimori is unlikely to pick a side outright. The more probable course is closer U.S. cooperation on crime, defense, and institutional oversight, alongside continued Chinese investment in mining, logistics, and trade.

Nicaragua shows the limits of the "rightward shift" story

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega announced on July 20 that Nicaragua will no longer hold elections, canceling the presidential vote expected in 2027; the Sandinista-controlled legislature has said it will carry out his instructions, though the legal mechanism isn't finalized. Ortega and co-President Rosario Murillo already dominate every branch of government, with opposition leaders jailed, exiled, or stripped of citizenship.

Secret ballot begins for next UN chief

The UN Security Council holds its first informal straw poll on Thursday, July 30, opening the closed-door process to pick a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres, whose second term ends December 31. Seven candidates are running, but the real decision rests with the five veto-holding permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The winner takes office January 1, 2027, inheriting a UN under financial strain, facing reform pressure, and sidelined on major crises in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Sudan, as the Council stays deadlocked among its great powers. The job carries no coercive authority, but shapes diplomatic priorities, senior appointments, and which conflicts get sustained global attention.

How the vote actually works

Thursday's ballot isn't formal. Each of the 15 Council members marks every candidate "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion," with first-round ballots identical so opposition from an elected member can't be distinguished from a permanent member's veto signal. Later rounds use colored ballots that expose which candidates face a likely veto.

A candidate needs nine votes and no veto from any of the five permanent members to win Council recommendation, which then goes to the 193-member General Assembly for what has traditionally been a procedural approval. Multiple polling rounds are likely, with a consensus candidate potentially not emerging until September or October.

Grossi's Iran record cuts both ways

Grossi, IAEA director general since 2019, is seen by diplomats as an early frontrunner given his negotiating record on Iran's nuclear program and efforts to protect Ukraine's Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia plant. His familiarity with all five permanent members could help him navigate veto politics more easily than rivals.

That same file is also his biggest liability. IAEA inspections inside Iran were suspended during the renewed military conflict in February 2026, and Grossi has since pushed Tehran to disclose the state of its nuclear sites and enriched-uranium stockpiles. Western critics say he's been too accommodating toward Tehran, while Iranian officials accuse the IAEA of bias, meaning his Iran record will likely be read as a proxy for how he'd balance pressure from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.

Rivals bring competing claims

Bachelet, twice Chile's president and former UN human rights chief, retains backing from Brazil and Mexico, but lost her own government's support in March when Chile's new administration withdrew backing. She also faces likely resistance from conservative U.S. politicians over her abortion stance and human-rights record on China.

Grynspan is positioning as a pragmatic reformer, Espinosa carries broad UN and ministerial experience including a General Assembly presidency, and Rodrigues-Birkett would be the first woman and first Caribbean national in the role. Sall is campaigning on multilateral reform, debt restructuring, and Security Council expansion, while Otunnu, who entered days before the first poll, ironically helped design the straw-poll system itself as Council president in 1981.

What’s likely to happen

The first ballot won't decide the race, but it will show which candidacies have enough support to survive and which are already effectively vetoed. The eventual winner is unlikely to be the strongest campaigner or the boldest reformer.

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