What you need to know

Israel casts FlyDubai incident as suspected terror plot

Israeli authorities now treat the emergency this morning aboard FlyDubai flight FZ1073 as a suspected terrorist attack, according to Israeli media citing senior officials. 

Early assessments described a fight between the pilots and ruled out a hijacking, but security reviews and passenger testimony have reversed that view.

An unnamed senior Israeli official told Channel 14 the co-pilot is under questioning and that evidence increasingly points to a plan to seize the aircraft and crash it with passengers aboard. A terrorist motive is not yet established.

Passengers retake the cockpit

Israeli media N12 and Channel 14 report the co-pilot repeatedly stabbed the captain mid-flight. Crew and passengers forced the cockpit door and subdued him, and off-duty pilots on board helped regain control. Israeli media now claim the alleged attacker as Omani and the injured captain as Emirati. The exact story is still unclear.

Neither FlyDubai nor any Emirati, Omani, or Saudi authority has confirmed the nationalities or the details of the incident at this time. FlyDubai says all passengers are safe and it is cooperating with authorities, but it confirms none of the reported details on the stabbing, identities, or motive.

What we do know is that the Boeing 737 MAX 8, reportedly carrying 174 passengers, sent general emergency and unlawful-interference codes (usually used for hijacking), then turned and dropped sharply from over 30,000 ft to 15,000 ft in about one minute. It later landed safely in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia after being refused permission to enter Israeli airspace.

An Iran link would raise escalation risk

Anonymous Israeli security sources tell Israeli media the incident may have an Iranian connection. No public evidence yet supports the claim.

A confirmed Iranian role would carry unpredictable consequences. It could raise the odds of Israeli retaliation, especially with an Israeli election approaching.

Birthplace of civilization

Washington targets Iran's rearmament pipeline

The U.S. sanctioned 13 individuals and entities on Sept. 29 for supplying Iran's weapons networks, with targets in Russia, China, Hong Kong, and Pakistan. The aim is to limit Tehran's military capabilities and raise costs for its foreign suppliers.

The measures freeze designated parties' assets under U.S. jurisdiction and generally bar U.S. persons from dealing with them. Treasury frames the action as part of Operation Economic Outcast, a campaign to cut Iran's access to international finance and slow its weapons rebuilding.

Treasury hits buyers, brokers, and suppliers

Treasury designated 10 individuals and companies it accuses of supporting Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. The targets span the procurement chain, from Iranian officials abroad to third-country intermediaries and component suppliers.

State adds pressure on already-sanctioned targets

The State Department layered new designations on Russian aircraft maker Yakovlev, Russian shipper MG-Flot, and Iran's Saha Airlines. It accuses all three of military procurement and arms transport to and from Iran.

All three already faced U.S. sanctions. The new designations fall under an authority aimed specifically at Iran's conventional arms trade, which ties them directly to arms transfers rather than broader sanctions programs.

Riyadh joins the effort

Treasury says it coordinated action against the Saudi-based company with Saudi authorities. That makes Saudi Arabia an active partner in disrupting Iranian procurement, not just a transit point.

The Pakistan and Türkiye designations also reach networks in countries that maintain working ties with Tehran. Intermediaries in those jurisdictions now face greater exposure.

Enforcement reach is the next test

The designations hit networks in China, Russia, and Hong Kong, where U.S. asset freezes have limited direct effect. Their impact depends on whether banks and third-country partners cut ties.

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Hormuz flows climb back to 77% of prewar levels

Oil and petroleum-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 13.1 million barrels a day (2.08 million cubic meters) last week, according to Kpler figures reported Sept. 30. That compares with 17.1 million barrels a day (2.72 million cubic meters) before the war.

The strait is functioning again, but not normally. About 4 million barrels a day (640,000 cubic meters) of prewar volume has yet to return.

Workarounds, not normal traffic, drive the rebound

The recovery depends on improvised shipping methods rather than restored commercial confidence. Traffic continues under wartime conditions.

Gulf exports return to 2025 levels

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million barrels a day (3.70 million cubic meters) over the previous week, broadly matching the 2025 average. The figure includes alternative export routes and is not a Hormuz-only measure.

The gap between the two figures shows how much supply now reaches markets by routes that bypass the strait. Regional output is closer to normal than Hormuz traffic alone suggests.

Saudi Arabia leans back on Hormuz

Saudi Arabia is redirecting shipments toward Hormuz after disruption to its East-West Pipeline. The pipeline is the kingdom's main route for bypassing the strait, so its disruption leaves Riyadh more dependent on Hormuz.

The real number is probably higher

Kpler's figures are provisional. Delayed confirmation of untracked crossings and offshore transfers can produce substantial upward revisions.

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U.S. ends its Iraq combat mission after 23 years

The U.S. completed its military withdrawal from Iraq on Sept. 30, leaving its last major base at Erbil. The exit formally ends Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition's 12-year campaign against the Islamic State.

The departure closes the second of two U.S. deployments, not an unbroken presence since 2003. U.S. forces invaded in March 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein, left in 2011, and returned in 2014 after the Islamic State seized Mosul and large areas of northern and western Iraq.

Washington shifts from troops to advice

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell says coalition forces and equipment left Erbil Air Base on the timetable Washington and Baghdad agreed in September 2024. He frames the move as a handover to Iraqi-led security backed by bilateral cooperation.

The U.S. role narrows rather than disappears. Washington keeps providing targeted training and intelligence support.

Baghdad now owns the security file

The Pentagon says Iraq's government now bears primary responsibility for suppressing Islamic State remnants and handling Iran-aligned militias. That leaves Baghdad facing both militant threats and armed factions it does not fully control.

Iraq war's consequences outlast the drawdown

The exit ends a major chapter of U.S. military involvement but not the war's aftermath. Continued security cooperation and unresolved threats keep Washington tied to Iraq's stability.

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Baghdad moves to institutionalize the PMF as U.S. troops leave

Iraq's Cabinet approved a bill governing the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) on Sept. 29 and sent it to Parliament. The bill would define the organization's structure and personnel arrangements, and it still needs parliamentary approval.

The timing matters. The Cabinet acted a day before the U.S.-led coalition announced the completion of its military withdrawal, so the PMF's legal status is being settled just as the U.S. presence ends.

State membership has not meant state control

The PMF formed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State's advance. It is predominantly Shiite, but its factions hold differing political and religious allegiances, so it is not a single, uniformly Iranian-controlled force.

A 2016 law placed the PMF within Iraq's armed forces under the commander-in-chief while preserving its separate identity. That formal integration has not consistently given Baghdad effective control.

Professionalization or entrenchment

Supporters say the bill would professionalize the PMF and protect fighters' service and retirement rights. Critics, including Washington, fear it would embed Iran-linked armed groups more deeply in the Iraqi state.

The bill raises the stakes of the U.S.-Iran contest over Iraq's security institutions. With U.S. forces gone, the law could decide how much leverage Tehran keeps inside Iraq's armed forces.

Command authority decides the outcome

The bill's impact depends on whether reform strengthens Baghdad's chain of command or gives factional autonomy a firmer legal footing. Parliament's vote is the next decision point.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Lyman push blunts Russia's northern pincer

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi around Lyman has disrupted Russia's effort to encircle the "fortress belt" of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka. Moscow's northern approach depended on advances around Lyman and across the Siverskyi Donets River, working with pressure from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia area in the south. Kyiv's counteroffensive has substantially reduced the risk of a broad encirclement.

Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the Third Army Corps, announced 51 square kilometers (19.7 square miles) recovered on Sept. 28. That brings the operation's claimed total to 176 square kilometers (68 square miles). The totals include areas cleared of Russian infiltrators, not only occupied ground retaken.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) supports the broader picture of substantial advances.

The south still favors Moscow

Kostyantynivka and Dobropillia remain among Ukraine's most dangerous sectors, with Russian assaults continuing on the fortress belt's southern approaches. ISW confirms a recent Russian advance southeast of Dobropillia but rejects Moscow's claims that Ukrainian forces there are encircled.

Elsewhere, results are mixed. Ukraine reports progress against Russia's bridgehead west of the Oskil River, north of Kupiansk, and a slower Russian tempo around Sumy.

Kyiv targets logistics before infantry

Ukraine's tactical changes may matter more than its territorial totals. The Defense Ministry has expanded "middle-strike" operations 30 to 200 kilometers (19 to 124 miles) deep, hitting ammunition depots, command posts, transport, air defenses, and drone infrastructure before ground assaults.

Units also cut supplies and reinforcements to Russian infiltration groups before clearing them, which could reduce Ukrainian infantry losses. Deputy corps commander Maksym Zhorin says electronic warfare kept Russian drones out of specific areas, though that advantage is local, not frontwide.

Moscow expands its manpower base

President Vladimir Putin's Sept. 28 decree raised the armed forces' authorized strength by 15,500 to 1,550,500. The figure covers the entire military, not troops in Ukraine, and does not mean new soldiers have been recruited or deployed.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says mobilization has effectively begun through expanded recruitment, including of foreigners. Putin denies a new mobilization is needed, and there is no independent confirmation of a nationwide call-up.

Air war and budgets point to a long fight

Russia's air campaign is straining Ukraine's defenses heading into winter. Strikes on the Kyiv area on Sept. 30 killed at least four people and damaged energy infrastructure. Jet-powered drones are harder to intercept, and Patriot interceptor shortages leave Ukraine exposed to ballistic missiles.

Both sides are funding a longer war. Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refineries and contributed to fuel shortages.

Breakthrough capacity is the real test

Robert Rose of West Point's Modern War Institute says defeating the Lyman salient is not the same as achieving a deeper breakthrough. That requires trained headquarters, coordinated formations, and reserves able to move before Russia rebuilds its defenses.

Diplomacy is not changing the battlefield yet. Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev held talks in Washington on Sept. 28 on the war and possible postwar energy cooperation, following talks between President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy on an energy-target ceasefire, with no breakthrough.

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Moscow puts the war ahead of growth

Russia is shifting resources from civilian investment and public services to the military as its economy stalls. Draft plans raise defense spending to 17.1 trillion rubles ($204 billion) in 2027, about 27% above the previous plan, while cutting welfare, education, healthcare, and economic development.

The war remains financeable for now. Energy revenues and domestic borrowing keep funding flowing, but the costs are landing on investment, businesses, and households.

Near-stagnation takes hold

GDP grew an estimated 0.6% in the first half of 2026, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, and the government forecasts the same rate for the full year. Household consumption is the main source of demand.

Military production supports jobs, wages, and measured GDP, but it pulls workers, materials, and financing from civilian output. It does little to raise living standards.

Inflation keeps credit expensive

Inflation reached an estimated 6.26% on Sept. 21, well above the central bank's 4% target. The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on Sept. 11.

The bank warns that inflation expectations remain high and that more fiscal pressure could force tighter policy. That makes new defense spending harder to reconcile with lower borrowing costs.

The deficit doubles

Government documents reported Sept. 28 put the 2026 federal deficit at 3.2% of GDP, double the 1.6% target. Revenue and spending are diverging faster than planned.

Energy props up the budget, with less margin

China and India keep buying large volumes of Russian hydrocarbons, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has lifted global energy prices. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates Russia earned €604 million ($685 million) a day in gross fossil-fuel export revenue in August.

That was 8% below July. Ukrainian attacks on refineries and ports disrupted activity and raised domestic fuel costs, and export earnings exceed the tax revenue that actually reaches the budget.

Asset seizure fears weigh on investment

State interventions against foreign businesses (see below) show the government can strip owners of operational control. VTB CEO Andrei Kostin warned in September that fears of asset seizures are deterring companies from investing in their core businesses.

The most likely path is prolonged low growth and heavier burdens on businesses and households while military spending continues.

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Russia widens its grip on foreign businesses

Russia is expanding state takeovers of foreign companies from retail into food production, manufacturing, and logistics. The latest target is German wholesaler Metro, which lost control of its Russian operations under a presidential decree published Sept. 28.

The wave shows that staying in Russia offers no protection and that leaving carries its own costs. Foreign owners are losing management authority without formally losing ownership.

Metro keeps the title but loses the keys

The decree placed Metro's Russian business under temporary administration and gave no reason. Operational control passed to UK Torg RUS, owned by Metro Russia CEO Johannes Tholey.

Metro still formally owns the unit but can no longer direct it, and says it is assessing the consequences. Its 91 stores and online operations keep trading normally.

Consumer giants and supply chains get swept in

A Sept. 17 decree placed the Russian businesses of Nestlé and Auchan under L.E.V. Management, a little-known Russian firm. The same decree hit French logistics operator FM Logistic and Bati Logistics, extending takeovers into the supply chains behind manufacturing, distribution, and retail.

Nestlé says it will protect its interests. Auchan's Russian unit says trading continues.

Restructuring offers no shield

The Sept. 17 decree also covered Lemana PRO, formerly Leroy Merlin's Russian home-improvement chain. The business moved to local management in 2023, and 99.993% of its operating company, Le Monlid, sits with UAE-registered Scenari Holding.

That structure did not stop its transfer to L.E.V. Management. Offshore holding companies and local management did not insulate the investment.

U.S. companies are now exposed

On Sept. 21, Russia placed Aptar Vladimir, a subsidiary of U.S. packaging maker AptarGroup, under temporary external administration. The appointed administrator is H&N, the company that runs Danone's former Russian business, now Logika Moloka.

AptarGroup disclosed the move in a securities filing and says it is assessing its options. The unit accounts for less than 0.6% of group sales and operating income.

More takeovers are likely

Moscow has now moved against retailers, food producers, manufacturers, and logistics firms from Germany, Switzerland, France, and the U.S. in under two weeks. The decrees give no reasons, which leaves every remaining foreign business exposed.

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