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U.S. sets out war aims as Trump considers stopping short of reopening Hormuz

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine are due to hold a press conference at 0800 Eastern Time on 31 March, as the Trump administration gives a fuller public account of its war aims.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the operation has four clear objectives: the destruction of Iran’s air force, the destruction of its navy, a severe reduction in its missile-launching capability, and the destruction of its factories.

Even so, President Donald Trump may be willing to end the U.S. military campaign before one of Washington’s central goals is met in full. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides he would be prepared to stop the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

The administration has also indicated that the financial burden of the war could become a regional issue. The White House press spokesperson said Trump would be open to asking Arab states to help pay for the conflict. Trump has also said publicly that the U.S. is in contact with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Speaking on Fox News on Monday night, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the global oil market remains “well supplied” despite the war, even as he acknowledged a daily shortfall of 10m-12m barrels that Washington is seeking to offset. He added that, over time, the U.S. would regain control of the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation. For the moment, he said, “any supply is helpful” as markets move toward normalization. U.S. crude settled above $100 a barrel on Monday for the first time since the conflict began.

Trump also repeated his threat to strike Iran’s energy and other civilian-critical infrastructure if Tehran does not reopen the strait, though these remain warnings rather than confirmed attacks.

Threats of wider trade disruption via closure of Bab al-Mandab

Tasnim Media, which is close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said on 31 March that new “unity of fronts” developments would emerge in the coming days, including around Bab al-Mandab. That raised the prospect of disruption across more than one strategic waterway. The outlet added that any multi-strait shock would place further strain on global supply chains and add to pressure on the world economy.

The warning came after a night of heavy strikes inside Iran. Major attacks were reported in Isfahan, where 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs were said to have penetrated a missile base, with secondary explosions continuing afterward. Israel also said it had struck military infrastructure at Imam Hossein University in Tehran, which it described as an IRGC-linked site involved in advanced-weapons research. Separate reports pointed to fresh, large-scale Israeli strikes overnight against military infrastructure in Tehran and western Iran.

Iran also confirmed on 30 March the death of Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, confirming an earlier Israeli claim that he had been hit in a previous targeted strike. Taken together, the developments suggest that the conflict is expanding not only across Iranian territory, but also in its potential economic impact, as maritime chokepoints again emerge as a central risk.

Missile attacks hit southern and northern Israel

Iran maintained missile pressure on Israel through Monday and into the following morning, with Israeli reports saying at least seven salvos were fired over the course of the day. The Israel Defense Forces’ live update feed continued to record additional launches overnight and again the next morning. Most of Monday’s daytime attacks were directed at southern Israel, though at least one later salvo targeted the north.

The most important confirmed damage in the south was around Beersheba and the Neot Hovav industrial zone. A fragment from an Iranian ballistic missile struck a chemical facility there, causing a major fire and briefly prompting fears of a hazardous-material incident, though no injuries were reported at the site. Later, another Iranian missile landed in an open area in Beersheba, lightly injuring 11 people and damaging about 100 homes, some of them severely enough that residents could not remain in them.

In northern Israel, a later attack damaged the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, though responsibility is less clear because the strike took place alongside Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon. Israeli reports said six impact sites were recorded across Kiryat Ata, Haifa and Shfaram. Two people were wounded, one of them seriously. Early indications suggest that a missile struck a gasoline storage tank and an industrial building at the refinery. Israeli reports added that there were no casualties at the refinery itself and that production facilities were not damaged.

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New tanker strike deepens oil, fuel and aviation disruption across Gulf crisis

The UK Maritime Trade Operations said it had received a report of an incident involving a tanker 22 nautical miles northeast of Ras Tanura. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation later said Iranian forces had attacked the oil tanker Al-Salmi overnight off the coast of Dubai, setting the vessel on fire and damaging its hull. Kuwaiti authorities warned of a possible oil spill in nearby waters. According to the same account, the tanker was carrying about 1.2 million barrels of Saudi crude and 800,000 barrels of Kuwaiti crude. The cargo had reportedly been loaded a month ago, with the vessel waiting for a safe opportunity to depart.

Meanwhile, the Gulf continued to face direct Iranian attack. The UAE said its air defenses intercepted 11 ballistic missiles and 27 UAVs launched from Iran on 30 March, though additional incoming strikes were reported during the day and at least one reportedly hit Jebel Ali port. Emirati authorities also confirmed a drone strike on an administrative building belonging to Thuraya Telecommunications Company in Sharjah, though no injuries were reported. A Kuwaiti-flagged crude tanker, Al-Salmi, was also struck and set ablaze off Dubai in what was described as a drone attack. Dubai authorities later said the fire had been brought under control and that there were no casualties. Saudi Arabia also intercepted Iranian missile attacks on Monday, and in a later update said a drone interception caused minor damage to six homes in Al Kharj, southeast of Riyadh, without causing injuries. By contrast, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman had reported no strikes yesterday or through this morning.

The incident came as oil prices, though still elevated, eased slightly in early Tuesday trading after sharp gains at Monday’s close. WTI crude closed on 30 March at $102.88 a barrel and was trading at about $101.90 early on 31 March. Brent closed at $112.78 and was trading at roughly $111.56. Even so, the broader picture remains one of mounting vulnerability in Gulf export infrastructure. Satellite imagery reportedly showed Iran striking two pumping stations on the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, the UAE’s main bypass route for exporting crude without transiting the Strait of Hormuz. That line, running from Abu Dhabi to the Indian Ocean coast, is central to the UAE’s contingency planning in any Hormuz disruption scenario.

Gas markets are also tightening. QatarEnergy says it has declared force majeure on LNG contracts with Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China, a move likely to intensify pressure on already stressed importers. Across Asia, Africa and parts of Europe, governments are moving from caution to emergency management. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have imposed fuel rationing and curtailed normal public activity. The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency. Pakistan’s four-day work week remains in place, while Egypt is rationing both fuel and electricity, ordering earlier closures for businesses and darkening billboards. In Japan, refiners are seeking a government release of strategic stocks, reflecting the country’s heavy dependence on Gulf crude.

The aviation sector is feeling the strain just as sharply. Emirates and flydubai are operating reduced schedules after the partial reopening of regional airspace, while Qatar Airways has restored more frequencies but says Doha flights are still operating through tightly controlled corridors. Hamad International Airport has cautioned that limited flights do not amount to a return to normal. The main constraint is increasingly fuel, not simply airspace. IATA said last week’s global average jet fuel price was $195.19 a barrel, still roughly double pre-conflict levels. That is now feeding through into higher fares, fuel surcharges and capacity cuts. Some airlines, including United, SAS and Air New Zealand, have already cut capacity or added charges, while Korean Air is moving into emergency management in April because of fuel costs. Cathay Pacific says demand on routes to North America, Europe and Australia has risen as travelers avoid Middle Eastern routings.

Air cargo is under even heavier pressure. Freight rates have risen by as much as 70% on some routes as shippers switch from disrupted sea lanes to air, even as Gulf cargo hubs continue to operate below full capacity. The Financial Times reported that the UK is due to receive its last tanker of jet fuel from the Middle East this week, a sign that the war’s effects are now reaching well beyond the Gulf and into the wider global economy.

Bond markets reel as Iran war feeds stagflation fears

U.S. and international bond markets have reacted to the Iran war less as a conventional flight to safety than as a stagflation shock. Rising oil and gas prices have led investors to expect higher inflation, fewer interest-rate cuts and, in some markets, even the possibility of renewed rate increases. Since 28 February, Treasury yields have climbed sharply. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose from just below 4% in late February to the mid-4% range by late March, while the 2-year yield also moved higher as investors scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve easing.

The sell-off has spread well beyond the United States. European government bonds have come under particularly heavy pressure, especially in Britain, Germany and Italy, as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and central-bank policy. Oil-importing Asian economies have also come under strain. Yields have risen in Japan and India, while South Korea has stepped in with bond purchases and fiscal measures to calm markets.

Credit markets have also weakened, though not in a way that points to outright panic. Corporate borrowing costs have risen, particularly for riskier issuers, while higher Treasury yields have fed through into mortgage rates and tighter financial conditions more broadly. China has been a notable exception, with government bonds outperforming as investors judge the country to be relatively insulated from the energy shock.

In the Gulf, meanwhile, the benefit of higher oil prices has in some cases been offset by growing security risks, with Qatar coming under renewed ratings pressure after attacks linked to the conflict. In recent days, some investors have begun to wonder whether the next phase could bring a partial recovery in bonds if slowing growth starts to outweigh the inflation shock. For now, though, the prevailing market view is that the war has worsened the global inflation outlook and made the path to lower interest rates more uncertain.

Türkiye turns to gold as Iran war squeezes energy security

Türkiye’s central bank has sold and swapped billions of dollars’ worth of gold over the past two weeks as the Iran war has battered reserves, tightened foreign-currency liquidity, and laid bare the country’s reliance on imported fuel. Bankers estimate that the central bank sold about $3 billion of gold last week and used additional bullion in swaps, while official data showed a sharp fall in gold reserves and a drop in total reserves to $177.5 billion in the week to 19 March. On 31 March, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye Fatih Karahan said that using gold-based transactions to support foreign-exchange liquidity under such conditions was a natural policy response.

The scale of the move is notable because Türkiye had spent years building up its bullion holdings. The central bank’s gold reserves fell by nearly 50 tonnes (55.1 U.S. tons) in a single week, the sharpest decline since 2018, and market estimates suggest that roughly 58 to 60 tonnes (63.9 to 66.1 U.S. tons) may have been sold or swapped over two weeks. That does not prove the gold was sold solely to pay energy bills directly. The stronger case is that Ankara is using bullion as part of a broader effort to defend the lira and shore up reserves as higher oil and gas prices intensify the external shock. Since the war began, total reserves have fallen by about $55 billion, while policymakers have also paused rate cuts and tightened liquidity conditions.

Türkiye is unusually vulnerable to such pressure. The International Energy Agency says the country remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, especially oil and gas, while Türkiye’s foreign ministry puts overall energy import dependence at about 74%. An older IEA policy review placed dependence at 93% for oil and 99% for gas, figures that broadly capture the country’s structural exposure even if the exact percentages vary from year to year. In that sense, the gold sales look less like a routine reserve adjustment and more like an emergency response by an energy importer hit by war-driven price and supply disruption.

There is, for now, little clear public evidence of a broader wave of energy-importing countries selling gold reserves specifically to buy fuel. Other importers are reacting differently. Japan has released about 80 million barrels from strategic oil stocks and is urging the G7 and the IEA to prepare further coordinated action. India says it has secured 60 days of crude and fuel supply by diversifying purchases and drawing on stockpiles. Bangladesh, which imports about 95% of its energy, is seeking more than $2.5 billion in external financing and a U.S. waiver to import Russian diesel. These are signs of severe strain, but not of a wider turn to gold liquidation.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases

Germany to return 80% of Syrian refugees

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that roughly 80% of the 900,000 Syrians living in Germany should return to Syria within the next three years, outlining an ambitious repatriation goal that he said was backed by Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Merz suggested that the plan would be aimed primarily at encouraging large-scale returns as conditions in Syria evolve, while stopping short of demanding the departure of all Syrians currently in Germany.

He added that Syrians who are well integrated into German society and who wish to remain would still be allowed to stay, indicating that Berlin would seek to balance tougher expectations on return with exceptions for those who have built stable lives in the country. The remarks point to a harder political line on migration.

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