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What you need to know

Riyadh builds a security hedge beyond Washington

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan are expected to sign a trilateral defense agreement in Mecca today, August 7, joining three of the Muslim world's most militarily consequential states after roughly a year of talks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, are meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia; the pact's terms remain undisclosed.

Three very different assets combine

Saudi Arabia brings capital and Gulf diplomatic weight. Turkey brings NATO membership and a growing defense-industrial base. Pakistan brings a large military and the distinction of being the only Muslim-majority nuclear power. Riyadh frames this as diversifying its security architecture, not replacing its U.S. relationship.

Built on an existing Saudi-Pakistan pact

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement on September 17, 2025, treating an attack on either as an attack on both.

Turkey adds a third leg

Saudi-Turkish defense ties have deepened quickly. Riyadh signed contracts in 2023 for Baykar's Akinci combat drones, followed by deals to localize Turkish drone production inside the kingdom. Turkey and Pakistan separately cooperate on naval shipbuilding, aircraft modernization, and training, meaning the new pact links three already substantial bilateral relationships.

Scope still unclear

Pakistan's defense production minister said in January that a draft trilateral agreement existed, separate from the Saudi-Pakistan pact, pending approval from all three governments. It remains unclear whether Friday's deal creates NATO-style collective defense obligations or focuses more narrowly on training, procurement, and coordination; calling it an "Islamic NATO" would be premature before the text is public.

Why it matters

The driving force is the U.S.-Iran war, which exposed Gulf states to Iranian missile and drone attacks, and post-Gaza war anxieties over both Iran and Israel. Riyadh is not abandoning Washington as its principal security partner but is adding options, alongside deepening China ties and building its own defense-industrial base.

The interests of the three states diverge: Pakistan wants to avoid permanent hostility with neighboring Iran, and Turkey pursues its own independent regional strategy. The pact's real weight will depend on whether it delivers genuine collective defense and integrated planning, or amounts mainly to procurement and consultation, a distinction that will only become clear in the next regional crisis.

Birthplace of civilization

Baghdad braces as militia truce window closes

Iraq has deployed elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) forces to Baghdad's Green Zone and positioned Army armored vehicles and tanks around Baghdad International Airport, as the self-imposed restraint period Iran-backed militias promised around Arbaeen has now expired. The deployment timing lines up precisely with that expiration, even though Baghdad has not publicly linked the two.

Why the militias held off, until now

After U.S.-Saudi airstrikes on July 28-29 killed at least 20 Popular Mobilization Forces members, including Iranian personnel, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq called retaliation "inevitable" but agreed to wait until after Arbaeen to avoid endangering pilgrims. Arbaeen concluded August 4, when more than 22 million pilgrims, including about 5 million foreign visitors, had entered Karbala.

The drone threat is already real

Saudi Arabia said on July 27 that Iraqi-launched drones targeted oil facilities in Riyadh and the Eastern Province, blaming Iran-backed militias. Two days later, Saudi and U.S. aircraft struck militia logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in response to more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours.

The militias denied the Riyadh attacks but threatened retaliation for the airstrikes. Baghdad condemned the U.S.-Saudi operation as a sovereignty violation while also pledging to stop Iraqi territory being used against neighbors, an increasingly difficult balance.

Saudi intelligence flags a coordinated threat

Saudi officials, citing intelligence from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and other regional governments, warn that Iran-backed Iraqi militias may be coordinating attacks with Yemen's Houthis against ports, airports, and other infrastructure. The warning coincides with a Houthi escalation against Saudi-backed forces in Yemen and a Najran region attack that injured 11 civilians.

Why these two sites, specifically

Baghdad International Airport houses Iraqi military facilities near the remaining U.S. presence and has repeatedly become a flashpoint in past U.S.-Iran-aligned confrontations. The Green Zone holds parliament, government ministries, and foreign missions; CTS units are among the few Iraqi forces considered reliable enough to defend them under pressure.

Catch 22

Zaidi faces a double bind: a militia attack from Iraqi soil risks drawing further foreign strikes, while moving to stop the militias risks direct confrontation with armed factions that hold real military capability and political weight within the PMF. The coming days will test whether Baghdad can contain the fallout without being pulled deeper into the wider regional conflict.

The ultimate complex system

A third choke point goes hot in the Black Sea

Russia and Ukraine have escalated attacks on ports, terminals, and commercial vessels across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, adding a third contested maritime corridor alongside the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The convergence puts oil, LNG, grain, and container trade simultaneously at risk across three separate war zones.

The Black Sea is not a chokepoint geographically, but the Odesa-Novorossiysk-Turkish Straits system functions like one economically, funneling the bulk of Russian and Ukrainian commodity exports through a narrow, now-militarized corridor.

Attacks intensify on both sides

Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry logged 35 attacks on vessels inside ports, 22 on ships at sea, and 67 strikes on port facilities in July alone. Civilian crews are increasingly caught in the crossfire.

Ukraine has expanded its own campaign against Russia's "shadow fleet" and military logistics vessels.

Kazakh oil supply takes a hit

Novorossiysk is the export terminus for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries roughly 1.8% of global oil supply, mostly Kazakh crude. Security concerns and tanker shortages have interrupted loadings.

Grain exports face a near-term ceiling

Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi says alternative routes via the Danube, rail, and neighboring European states cannot substitute for Black Sea capacity, even once expanded.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and about a quarter of its grain exports normally move through the Sea of Azov, now similarly constrained.

Markets and regions already feel it

Wheat prices hit a near two-year high in July on fears of simultaneous Russian and Ukrainian supply disruption. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization reported on August 7 that global food prices reached their highest level in more than three years that month.

North Africa and the Middle East face the sharpest exposure, the same regions already absorbing higher energy and shipping costs from Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions. War-risk insurance premiums and tanker rates are climbing as shipowners price in the chance of being targeted rather than merely caught in the crossfire.

If Black Sea disruptions persist through the northern hemisphere harvest, the world faces simultaneous constraints on Hormuz energy flows, Red Sea shipping, and Black Sea grain exports. For import-dependent governments across Africa and the Middle East, that combination risks tipping a maritime-security problem into a fresh wave of food-price inflation.

Cold War 2.0

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Pacific unity cracks over China missile test

The Pacific Islands Forum failed to agree a joint statement condemning China's July 6 ballistic-missile test, exposing how far Beijing's influence now reaches into the region's collective decision-making. Foreign ministers from 18 countries met in Suva, Fiji, on Friday, August 7, but consensus broke down.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters confirmed two members blocked the statement without naming them. Reuters, citing an official familiar with the talks, identified them as Nauru and Kiribati.

What China actually fired

A People's Liberation Army Navy nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine launched a strategic missile carrying a dummy warhead into the southern Pacific on July 6. The U.S. classified it as an intercontinental ballistic missile; China called it routine training conducted lawfully.

Consensus rules give Beijing leverage

The Forum operates by consensus, meaning one or two dissenting governments can block a collective position. That structural feature works in China's favor: Beijing does not need Pacific states to endorse its policies, only to prevent them from uniting against it.

Peters said unnamed external powers were influencing some Pacific governments' positions but declined to specify which. There is no public evidence China directly pressured Nauru or Kiribati, though the outcome favors Beijing regardless of intent.

Regional split undercuts "Ocean of Peace"

Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Rick Houenipwela, who chaired the Suva meeting, warned that a fracturing region undermines Pacific-led policy at the exact moment strategic competition is intensifying. The episode shows agreement on peace as a principle is far easier than agreement on how to respond to a specific act by a major power.

What to watch

Pacific leaders meet in Koror, Palau, from August 30 to September 4 for the 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. That summit will serve as a second, higher-stakes test of whether the Forum can hold a unified line on China, or whether fragmentation becomes the region's default state as U.S., Australian, and Chinese competition deepens.

The new Monroe Doctrine with a Trump Corolloary

Colombia swings right, ending Petro era

President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella takes office today, August 7, replacing outgoing leftist President Gustavo Petro and marking one of Latin America's sharpest political reversals. The inauguration takes place in Cali rather than Bogotá, breaking with tradition.

De La Espriella, a wealthy criminal lawyer with no prior elected office, beat Petro ally Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff by roughly 250,000 votes (49.66% to 48.70%). Petro has alleged irregularities, but electoral authorities have certified the result and international observers have recognized it.

Energy policy reverses course

Petro halted new oil, gas, and coal exploration contracts while letting existing ones run, betting Colombia could pivot away from fossil-fuel revenue. De La Espriella plans the opposite: faster environmental licensing, fewer regulatory delays, and decrees to simplify permitting where he can bypass a divided Congress.

The reserves clock is already ticking

Colombia's National Hydrocarbons Agency reported 2.02 billion barrels of proven oil reserves at the end of 2025, about 7.4 years of output at current rates. Gas reserves cover roughly 5.9 years. That timeline creates a economic case for new exploration independent of the ideological shift.

Minerals put Colombia in a bigger power contest

Colombia holds undeveloped copper, gold, and nickel deposits just as the U.S. and China compete to lock down critical-mineral supply chains. Washington has made cutting reliance on Chinese-controlled mineral processing a national-security priority, so a more investment-friendly Bogotá could draw interest from governments, not just companies.

Washington relationship resets

Petro and President Donald Trump clashed repeatedly; Trump endorsed De La Espriella during the campaign and predicted relations would improve after his win. De La Espriella has made security and counternarcotics cooperation with Washington central to his foreign policy.

Part of a wider regional swing

Colombia joins Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama, and Peru in reversing the early-2020s "pink tide," as crime, weak growth, and instability erode support for incumbent leftist governments across the region.

De La Espriella's ability to reopen Colombia to resource investment while rebuilding ties with Washington will test whether Latin America's political realignment translates into a broader economic one, particularly as U.S.-China competition over regional minerals intensifies.

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