What you need to know

The world has woken up to what is certainly the worst economic crisis since the Covid-19 pandemic, and possibly the worst since the global financial crisis of 2008. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the opening of markets in the U.S., amid fears of sharp declines triggered by the tariff policies of the administration of President Donald Trump. Although the full tariff package will not be implemented until 9 April, the anticipation alone is already wreaking havoc.

Oil prices fell below $60 for the first time in four years.

Stock markets have been tumbling:

Hong Kong: -13.2%
Taiwan: -9.7%
Japan: -9.5%
Italy: -8.4%
Singapore: -8.0%
Sweden: -7.0%
China: -7.0%
Switzerland: -7.0%
Germany: -6.8%
Spain: -6.4%
Netherlands: -6.2%
Australia: -6.2%
France: -6.1%
UK: -6%
Malaysia: -4.5%
Philippines: -4.3%
India: -4.1%
Russia: -3.8%
Saudi Arabia: -3.3%
Türkiye: -2.8%

Stocks in China opened nearly 10% lower in what marks the country's most severe one-day crash since 2008. Beijing has also imposed export restrictions on seven key rare earth minerals—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—all critical to the U.S. tech industry and of which China supplies 80%. Beijing has also launched a case against the U.S. tariffs at the World Trade Organization.

Circuit breakers were triggered multiple times across Asian markets to arrest the sharp declines in share prices. Pakistan’s stock market was totally closed. Thailand has banned short selling.

Even defense contractors have not been spared. Shares in the German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall AG have plunged 26.88%, setting the stage for what may become the worst trading day in the firm’s history.

Tesla shares are down 8.5% in pre-market trading, while NVIDIA has fallen by more than 7%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the island’s chipmaking champion, is down 10%.

Approximately $6.5 trillion in value has so far been erased from global markets today.

Bitcoin, which has shown increasing correlation with broader equity markets, has slipped to $75,000, down from $82,000 yesterday.

Trump has long expressed enthusiasm for tariffs; television interviews dating back to the 1980s reveal a consistent belief that America is being exploited by its trading partners. That sentiment now aligns with the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord—a strategy we wrote about in Friday’s Center of Gravity and which is favored by some of his advisers since late last year. It calls for dramatic interventions to reduce the cost of servicing the U.S. national debt—now roughly $1 trillion per quarter—by weakening the dollar and slashing interest rates. For our FactBox on the so called Mar-a-Lago Accord, click here.

Vietnam has already offered to waive all tariffs against U.S. imports in return for the U.S. lifting its massive 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports. Israel also cancelled all tariffs on American goods before the announcement last week, which did not stop it being hit with a 17% U.S. import tariff.

Protests against Trump take off in Washington and other cities

Millions of people took to the streets across the United States on Saturday to protest against President Donald Trump and his administration. The rallies, calling themselves Hands Off!, featured a diverse coalition of participants, including labor unions, civil-rights organizations, veterans, electoral-reform activists, and LGBTQ+ advocates. Many demonstrators expressed anger at Trump’s policies, including the termination of thousands of federal employees, potential cuts to Medicaid and Social Security, the rollback of essential public services, and the deportation of migrants.

Large protests occurred in Midtown Manhattan, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Portland, Oregon, and Los Angeles. Demonstrations also took place in London and Paris.

Although protests have occurred throughout both Trump’s presidencies, Saturday’s actions are significant in their coordination and nation-wide character. However, we do not believe that these protests will have any significant impact on the administration’s policies.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Friday that Canberra is seeking a new owner for Darwin Port, which is currently under the control of China’s LandBridge Group. In 2015, LandBridge secured a 99-year lease of the port in a deal worth $506 million, gaining 100% operational control and 80% ownership of the land.

At the time, Northern Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles defended the lease structure as a safeguard to uphold the terms of the agreement. Albanese’s remarks appeared aimed at pre-empting a similar announcement by the opposition Coalition on Saturday. Though he had previously declined to revoke the lease—most notably during a 2023 trip to Beijing—Albanese now indicated that, if re-elected in May, his Labor Party would either nationalize the port or transfer ownership to an Australian firm.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton pledged to immediately terminate Chinese ownership if elected. Chinese influence in Australia has become increasingly contentious. Tensions escalated after Chinese warships conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea in February, inside Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone. A U.S. nuclear submarine recently docked in Darwin Harbor, near the LandBridge-operated facility—underscoring shared U.S.-Australian concerns over China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Russia again pounded Ukraine over the weekend, in one of the largest drone and missile attacks since the war began.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that it will become apparent within weeks—rather than months—whether Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine. Speaking at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, Rubio referenced his talks with a Russian envoy sent by President Vladimir Putin to Washington.

Rubio said, “At some point, it will be clear whether you [Russia] want peace or you don’t want peace,” adding that there can be no “talks about talks.”

Kirill Dmitriev, the envoy who recently visited Washington, described a newly agreed ceasefire—intended to halt strikes on energy infrastructure—as the first “de-escalation in three years.” In practice, however, fighting has continued on both sides.

The Brussels meeting appeared collegial, though Rubio reiterated U.S. demands that European members of NATO raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. This demand comes at a fraught moment, as the U.S. last week imposed sweeping international tariffs—another topic discussed in Brussels.

On Friday, senior French and British military officials visited Kyiv to explore options for a potential troop deployment to help enforce a ceasefire agreement.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

The tensions between the U.S. and Iran and its regional proxies are reaching new heights, with no offramp in sight.

About ten rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel yesterday in the largest barrage in months, injuring at least three people. Hamas claimed responsibility.

The U.S. has transferred a second Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile battery to Israel, clearly designed to defend against missile strikes by Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington, having flown directly from Hungary on Sunday. While he will discuss U.S. tariff policy with the administration, his primary objective is to advocate for military strikes against Iran. Israel claims that Iran is planning a preemptive missile strike involving hundreds of projectiles in the near future, a rumor that is now circulating in Israeli media and on social platforms.

Congressional Republicans are preparing a ten-bill sanctions package designed to “gut” Iran’s economy and target its supreme leader. The proposed legislation, the toughest yet, would lock in the “maximum pressure” campaign and prevent future administrations from easily overturning it.

A major airlift of military equipment and personnel to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility has continued over the past two weeks. Flight-tracking data show that the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command has conducted over 95 cargo and refueling missions to airbases in the region over the past two weeks. At least two dozen C-17 and C-5 aircraft flew from Osan Air Base in South Korea to the Middle East, carrying MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries as well as a THAAD air defense system.

Deployed or deploying assets in the CENTCOM region, directed at Iran and the Houthis, include:

Indian Ocean (Diego Garcia)

Red Sea

Arabian Gulf

Plus the following assets deployed in various places across the Middle East

U.S. envoy issues ultimatum to Lebanon

In meetings with Lebanese leaders yesterday, U.S. Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus reportedly issued an ultimatum: begin economic reforms and disarm Hezbollah within weeks or face escalation. According to local reports, Ortagus described this as Beirut’s “last chance,” urging the government not to “bet on time” or hope for delays through U.S.-Iranian negotiations.

Ortagus also emphasized the need for the Lebanese army to increase its presence in southern Lebanon and to prevent further rocket fire at Israel. Any renewed attacks, she warned, could have serious repercussions for Lebanon.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Russia pledges continued military support for Sahel allies

The foreign ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger met in Moscow over the weekend with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, where the parties affirmed intentions to deepen military cooperation.

Following the meeting, Moscow committed to supporting the creation of a 5,000-strong regional force through the supply of arms and training. Though Russian mercenaries have long operated in the region, the statement signaled a shift toward more formal defense arrangements.

A joint communiqué said Russia would assist in procuring “major and high-performance military equipment and appropriate training,” along with “technical assistance.”

Move fast and break things

General Timothy Haugh, head of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, was dismissed late last week, along with several senior members of the National Security Council.

The firings followed a meeting between Trump and far-right commentator Laura Loomer. Loomer, who claimed credit for the purge, said she had spoken to Trump about the officials, asserting that Haugh had been “handpicked” by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, who had publicly clashed with Trump during his first term and described him as “fascist to the core.”

Loomer also claimed to have presented evidence that some officials on the National Security Council were not aligned with the “Make America Great Again” agenda. Those dismissed included Brian Walsh, director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, senior director for national security.

Senior Republicans voiced concern. Senator Mitch McConnell described Haugh as highly experienced and questioned whether qualified individuals would replace him: “What exactly are the criteria for working on this administration’s national security staff?”