What you need to know

President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, set to take effect on 5 April. The tariffs include a blanket 10 percent baseline for imports from all countries. However, larger levies are set to be implemented on a country-by-country basis, apparently based on the trade surplus each country has with the U.S.

The formula to calculate the tariffs does not seem to be based on the actual tariffs imposed by other countries, but rather the White House has calculated the trade imbalance between the U.S. and each individual country and divided it in half to reach a percentage rate for tariffs for imports. Those countries that do not have a trade imbalance with the U.S., or do not impose tariffs on U.S. goods, have been hit with a minimum 10%.

The White House is referring to the new trade regime as “Make America Wealthy Again,” and Trump said the decision would “liberate” the U.S. economy. He claimed the country had been “ripped off” for decades and singled out both allies such as Japan and competitors such as China for exploiting the U.S. He blamed previous administrations for allowing this to happen.

China will face total total import duties of 54 percent, Việt Nam 46 percent, Japan 24 percent, and the European Union 20 percent. During his address in the Rose Garden ceremony yesterday afternoon, Trump declared: “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it’s already happening.” He added, “If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America.”

While the full repercussions and implications of Trump’s moves will take time to be understood, they are likely to reshape the architecture of globalization. Companies such as Apple, Hyundai, and Johnson & Johnson have recently indicated that they would expand operations in the U.S. in response to the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

Trump has repeatedly expressed discontent with what he terms the predatory trade practices of countries such as China and the European Union. He argues that these have caused the relocation of jobs and industries out of the U.S.

Mexico and Canada, the U.S.' two largest trading partners, were not hit with new levies on Wednesday. At the moment, the U.S. maintains differentiated tariff levels on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Foreign leaders have already reacted. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the tariffs would be a “major blow” to the global economy and that the bloc was preparing countermeasures. China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it would retaliate and called on Washington to “immediately cancel” the tariffs, warning that they “endanger global economic development.”

Whether the move will trigger a global downturn remains uncertain.

The reaction of the markets today will be indicative. Bitcoin, which is normally closely correlated to overall market health, lost approximately $4,000 in value overnight. And Gold, which is a refuge and hedge against economic disruption, hit $3,200 (the highest level in history) last night.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she did not currently foresee a global recession but that the fund would make a slight downward revision to its 2025 forecast of 3.3 percent global growth. However, tariffs on individual economies are likely to have significant effects. China, for example, will need to expand into external markets amid weak domestic demand. China may also be tempted to devalue its currency to compete in the U.S. market.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

Thousands of Hungarians took to the streets in Budapest on Tuesday to protest a law aimed at banning the annual Pride march held by LGBTQ+ groups. The measure, introduced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has been seen by opposition groups as part of a broader clampdown on civil liberties and foreign funding of independent media and NGOs.

In parliament, Orbán’s Fidesz party passed legislation last month banning the Pride march on the grounds that it could be harmful to children. The law also permits police to use facial recognition cameras at protests to identify and later fine participants.

With parliamentary elections due in 2026, Orbán — in power since 2010 — faces a growing challenge from Péter Magyar, whose Tisza party came second in last year’s European parliamentary elections with 30 percent of the vote.

Support for Magyar continues to rise. Orbán, a social conservative, has steadily centralized power and aligned himself closely with the Kremlin’s position on Ukraine. He maintains a cordial relationship with President Donald Trump.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Finland announced on Monday that it will increase defense spending to three percent of GDP by 2029 and is preparing to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits anti-personnel mines. Helsinki cited the growing threat from Russia as the reason for its decisions. Finland’s Defense Minister Anita Häkkänen said that the decision would initiate modernization plans for the army. She argued that Russia’s military developments pose a “long-term security threat to Europe and to Finland.”

The move is seen as significant because of Finland’s aging arsenal, much of it made up of equipment acquired in the 1990s from East Germany, Poland, and Russia — including artillery systems, rocket launchers, and armored personnel carriers. Defense analysts say much of this needs replacement. Finland guards nearly half of NATO’s land border with Russia. Helsinki will join the three Baltic nations and Poland in reintroducing anti-personnel landmines to strengthen defenses against potential Russian aggression. Finland has fought wars with Russia in the past.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that Kyiv will hold talks on Friday with foreign governments about their potential contributions to a peacekeeping force that could serve as a security guarantee for Ukraine. Zelensky made the comments during a press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Kyiv, saying he would press for “more concrete” commitments from allies.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that British, French, and Ukrainian military leaders will meet in the coming days to accelerate security coordination. The proposed peacekeeping contingent would include land, air, and sea components.

This comes amid signs that the Trump administration’s efforts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia are faltering. Sergei Ryabkov, a foreign policy adviser to President Vladimir Putin, said Russia’s core demands were not addressed in U.S. proposals. He asserted that Moscow “cannot accept it all in its current form.”

Even the Trump administration is increasingly acknowledging Russian resistance.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt stated, “There is deep frustration with the Russian government over negotiations.”

Meanwhile, 50 U.S. senators — 25 Republicans and 25 Democrats — have proposed sanctions to be imposed on Russia if it refuses to negotiate in good faith.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel would seize additional territory in Gaza as part of an expanded offensive. Netanyahu also stated that the land seizure would be accompanied by large-scale evacuations. “We are currently dividing up the strip, adding pressure step by step, so that our hostages will be given back to us,” he said.

Defense Minister Israel Katz added that “large areas” would be converted into buffer zones. Israel has already established such zones along parts of its border with Gaza and within the Netzarim Corridor, which bisects the enclave.

Netanyahu said the Israel Defense Forces were in the process of seizing land between Rafah and Khan Younis in the south, referring to the area as the Morag Corridor. An evacuation order has already been issued for Rafah, prompting tens of thousands to flee. The World Food Programme said this week that 25 bakeries it supports in Gaza had shut down due to a lack of flour and fuel.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Sahel states foreign ministers to visit Moscow this week

The foreign ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will visit Russia later this week, according to a joint statement by the three countries on Tuesday. All three states are run by military juntas that seized power in recent years and have since deepened ties with Moscow. Russia has sent private mercenary fighters to assist them in battling a persistent Islamist insurgency.

The insurgency spans the borders of all three states and has subsumed a long-standing Tuareg rebellion. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all former French colonies, had long relied on support from Paris to combat Islamist groups. However, since the coups, the juntas have expelled French forces and turned increasingly to Moscow, which has also dispatched security advisers.

The three states recently formed the Confederation of Sahel States (AES), aimed at establishing a regional trade and security bloc, with long-term ambitions of a common currency.

They have also formalized their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which had condemned their coups.