Washington and Beijing appear close to a deal over TikTok, with Oracle and U.S. investors poised to take control of American operations. In Belarus, American officers observed Zapad-2025, a Russian-Belarusian exercise involving 13,000 troops and advanced missile systems. Minsk presented their presence as a gesture of transparency after releasing political prisoners and securing limited U.S. sanctions relief. In the Middle East, Israel has launched a ground incursion into Gaza City after declaring that enough civilians had fled south. The assault, following waves of airstrikes, aims to capture Hamas strongholds but has deepened humanitarian distress as hospitals overflow and aid falters. At the same time, China has halted soybean purchases from the U.S., favoring Brazil, and has threatened “decisive countermeasures” if NATO or the G7 impose tariffs on its Russian oil trade. Ukraine meanwhile struck a refinery deep inside Russia, showing longer-range drone capabilities, and is encircling Russian forces north of Pokrovsk. A global Starlink outage briefly left Ukrainian troops without communications, exposing vulnerabilities in their dependence on private satellite networks.