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Ceasefire collapses in Syria’s north-east

The ceasefire and integration deal between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), signed over the weekend in Erbil, has collapsed.

The deal followed Damascus’ move last week to push SDF forces out of Kurdish neighborhoods in the Aleppo. Arab tribes that had previously backed the SDF then shifted their allegiance to Damascus.

What followed has reinforced the concerns of many Syrians and Kurds about the direction of the government in Damascus.

Sunni religious authorities based in Damascus announced operations against the SDF and cited a verse from the Qur’an about holy war (al-Anfal). Mosques in Damascus and other government-held areas were urged to broadcast the verse on public loudspeakers. The verse was used by Saddam Hussein in 1988 during the genocidal Anfal campaign against Iraq’s Kurds. In Kurdish communities in Syria, Iraq, and Türkiye, the symbolism is being interpreted as a sectarian call to violence against Kurds.

Damascus-aligned fighters appear to have released around 1,500 Islamic State fighters from a prison previously guarded by the SDF. U.S. forces have deployed to the area to help contain the fallout.

Videos circulating online purport to show Damascus-backed fighters abusing, torturing, and executing Kurdish fighters. Much footage appears to focus on the abuse of Kurdish women fighters. Other clips show beheadings and the desecration of corpses. In several videos, fighters appear to be wearing Islamic State patches.

The SDF has lost territory quickly, but much of it was held with the support of Arab partners. The Kurdish heartland remains under Kurdish control.

The ceasefire between Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi thus appears to have been voided after a meeting in Damascus yesterday. The SDF’s General Command called on people to “join the resistance”, framing the moment as one of “historic responsibility”.

Senator Lindsey Graham warned Damascus last night to rein in its forces or face consequences. President Donald Trump says he has received assurances from al-Sharaa that government forces will not enter the Kurdish city of al-Hasakeh.

In Iraqi Kurdistan, protests flared last night, particularly in Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dohuk. Demonstrators denounced Damascus and Türkiye, and accused U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack of enabling the deal and the violence that followed, including the reported release of Islamic State detainees.

Damascus’s relations with the Kurds in the north-east have totally fractured, and the prospect of integrating Kurdish-held parts of Syria into a post-Assad state now looks more distant than ever.

Further conflict appears likely.

Move fast and break things

Trump’s multi-lateral organization

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump is using the launch of his Gaza “Board of Peace” to sell a larger idea: a leader-level body, chaired by the U.S., that could extend beyond Gaza to other conflicts.

A draft charter circulated to invited capitals describes the Board as an entity meant to “promote stability” and “secure enduring peace” in areas “affected or threatened by conflict”, language that stretches well beyond Gaza. The same document gives Trump wide discretion over membership, procedures and final decisions. That concentration of power has prompted comparisons to a pay-to-play alternative to existing multilateral institutions.

The administration is also seeking money. Under terms described by multiple outlets, countries could reportedly take a time-limited seat without paying, but a permanent seat would require a $1bn contribution. U.S. officials say the proceeds would be directed toward Gaza’s reconstruction.

Europe’s response has been cool. France has signaled it will not join, citing concerns that the charter’s scope and structure raise “major questions” about respect for the principles and architecture of the United Nations. Le Monde describes “awkward silences and polite refusals” among many leaders, with fewer than a dozen early affirmative signals.

Invitations, meanwhile, have gone to a mix of allies and illiberal-leaning partners. Reporting indicates that Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary has responded positively, and Russia has confirmed that an invitation was extended to President Vladimir Putin, with the Kremlin saying it is reviewing the offer. In Pakistan, coverage has also pointed to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif receiving an invitation as the White House canvasses support outside the core Western bloc.

The Board’s origins shape the politics around it. The concept was initially framed as a Gaza-focused mechanism tied to post-war governance and reconstruction, alongside a “technocratic” Palestinian body intended to run day-to-day administration. The charter’s broader language, and Trump’s personal chairmanship, have deepened the suspicion in Europe that Washington is testing a new U.S.-controlled forum for conflict management, one that could compete with, rather than complement, existing institutions.

A ruling on tariffs may be close, or not

Media chatter has resurfaced in Washington that the U.S. Supreme Court could deliver its long-awaited decision in the challenge to President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs when it takes the bench at 10:00 a.m. today.

The speculation matters because this is not the first false dawn. Traders, lawyers and importers have repeatedly priced in an imminent ruling since the justices heard arguments on 5 November, only for opinion days to pass without movement in the tariffs dispute.

At the center is a test of presidential power: whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) can serve as a stand-alone legal basis for sweeping tariffs and, if so, whether that amounts to an unconstitutional delegation of Congress’s taxing authority. The administration has defended the tariffs as an emergency tool; lower courts have ruled that this use of IEEPA went too far.

Until the justices speak, uncertainty remains the policy. A decision upholding the tariffs would entrench a more muscular model of trade policy by executive action. A decision striking them down could force a rapid rethink of the White House’s leverage strategy and trigger refund claims by importers who have paid the duties while the litigation has dragged on.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Trump attacks the UK’s Diego Garcia handover, blindsiding Starmer

President Donald Trump has denounced the United Kingdom’s agreement to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius while leasing back Diego Garcia, home to a major U.S.-UK military base, calling it an act of “total weakness” and “GREAT STUPIDITY”.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said the handover was being done “for no reason whatsoever” and argued that China and Russia would interpret it as strategic feebleness. He also tied the episode to his push to “acquire” Greenland, presenting it as further evidence of what he portrays as Europe’s security drift.

The intervention is politically uncomfortable for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who defended the Chagos agreement as unavoidable and vital to the UK’s security relationship with the U.S.

Trump’s remarks also come as human-rights bodies renew their scrutiny. In December 2025, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination urged the UK and Mauritius not to ratify the agreement as drafted, warning that it could entrench violations of Chagossians’ rights and limit return and reparations.

Downing Street has not publicly responded.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Kidnappers hit churches in Kaduna

On Sunday, gunmen raided church services in Kurmin Wali, a forested community in Kaduna state’s Kajuru area. Police said the attackers were armed with “sophisticated weapons” and struck two churches during worship. A senior church leader said 172 people were initially seized and nine escaped almost immediately, leaving about 163 still missing at the time of initial reporting.

Some accounts describe near-simultaneous attacks affecting three churches, including an ECWA church, a Cherubim and Seraphim church, and a Catholic church. That may explain why totals vary across outlets, and why local officials say the numbers are still being verified.

No group credibly claimed responsibility in the immediate aftermath. Kaduna lies along Nigeria’s religious fault line, so attacks on churches are easily interpreted as sectarian. Even so, such raids in the north-west are often driven as much by profit as by ideology.

Kaduna’s southern and rural fringes combine difficult terrain, weak road coverage, thin security presence, and a well-established kidnapping economy. Church services are especially vulnerable targets: they are predictable, densely attended, and hard to secure, particularly in remote areas where response times are slow. Accounts of the assault, with gunmen arriving in large numbers, sealing exits, and herding worshippers into nearby bush, match patterns seen in other kidnappings in the region.

The episode lands amid a wider U.S. political argument about religious freedom in Nigeria, and whether violence against Christians is best understood as targeted persecution or as part of broader insecurity that affects multiple communities. President Donald Trump has floated the prospect of U.S. military action, including air strikes and even troops, linked to claims of mass killings of Christians. Nigeria’s government has rejected that framing and opposed the idea of foreign intervention.

The ultimate complex system

Silver’s surge meets Japan’s yield shock

Silver has pushed to record highs, trading around $95 an ounce in early U.S. hours on 20 January, extending a blistering start to 2026. The rally comes as Japanese government bond yields jump, with the 10-year JGB above 2.3%, a reminder of how quickly global long-term rates can reset.

Investors are watching whether Japan’s yield breakout prompts portfolio shifts that put pressure on U.S. Treasuries, especially at the long end.

U.S. 10-year yields have also moved higher, with market measures placing them in the low-to-mid 4% range.

That matters for housing: mortgage rates tend to follow the Treasury curve, plus the spread on mortgage-backed securities. Freddie Mac’s survey-based series shows 30-year fixed rates have remained high in recent years, leaving borrowers exposed if long yields rise further.

The most alarmist scenario, a disorderly sell-off in U.S. government debt, a plunging dollar and a bout of “unprecedented stagflation,” remains a tail risk, not a forecast. Still, the ingredients that investors link to that anxiety are easier to spot, including soaring precious-metals prices, rising sovereign yields and growing scrutiny of fiscal and inflation dynamics on both sides of the Pacific, with Japan’s expanding issuance plans in the background.

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