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What you need to know

Lincoln carrier enters CENTCOM waters & electronic-warfare assets deployed

U.S. Central Command has said the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying destroyers with Tomahawk missiles were now deployed to the Middle East, bringing a carrier strike group into the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations. CENTCOM indicated the ships were operating in the Indian Ocean rather than the Arabian Sea, suggesting the force is still positioning rather than settling into a final on-station box.

The carrier’s arrival adds a sizable, flexible air package to a growing U.S. posture that already includes additional U.S. Air Force fighter deployments. There are at least a dozen F-15E Strike Eagles in theatre, alongside a broader uptick in U.S. military logistics flights, especially from Fort Hood in Texas, where air defense systems are stored. Together, this gives Washington more options for deterrence signaling or rapid escalation, depending on what the White House decides to do next.

At the same time, open-source flight tracking and spotter reporting suggest a rarer enabler may be moving closer: an EA-37B Compass Call, the Air Force’s newest electronic-attack aircraft, reportedly transited from Bermuda toward Ramstein Air Base in Germany in recent days. There has been no official U.S. statement confirming the move, so any operational intent remains conjectural.

Why analysts are watching the EA-37B is straightforward. The platform is a next-generation successor to the long-running Compass Call mission, built on a Gulfstream G550 and designed to disrupt an adversary’s use of the electromagnetic spectrum (communications, radar and navigation). The first EA-37B was delivered for training in August 2024, and defense reporting has described the program’s shift to a faster, higher-flying, more survivable jet that can provide standoff electronic effects.

Taken together, the picture looks less like a single dramatic leap than a layered build: a carrier strike group arriving in CENTCOM’s maritime neighborhood, combat aircraft already forward-postured, and the possible early positioning of specialized electronic-warfare capacity via Europe’s main U.S. air hub.

That combination would be consistent with Washington assembling options while keeping its endgame ambiguous.

Move fast and break things

Trump threatens South Korean tariffs to 25% over a stalled trade deal

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. would raise tariffs on a range of South Korean imports to 25%, from 15%, accusing Seoul’s legislature of failing to honor its deal with the United States.

The higher rate is expected to apply to automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other goods covered by the administration’s “reciprocal” tariff regime. The move points to a framework sketched out in 2025 under which South Korea would mobilize large-scale investment in the U.S., reportedly about $350bn, in exchange for tariff relief. South Korean officials said they had not received formal notice from Washington at the time of the announcement, raising doubts about both timing and the mechanics of implementation.

Markets took the statement as another sign that trade policy remains a moving target. Shares in South Korean automakers dipped in early trading before steadying, while the won weakened.

For Seoul, the threat lands at an awkward moment. South Korea depends heavily on the U.S. market for high-value manufactured exports, and on U.S. security guarantees in a tightening regional environment. That combination increases pressure to show progress quickly without seeming to bow to public pressure from abroad.

The next test is procedural: whether the White House issues the formal steps needed to enforce the new rate, and whether South Korea’s National Assembly accelerates legislation linked to the 2025 framework, which could return when lawmakers reconvene in early February.

The ultimate complex system

Yen nerves meet bond-market jitters

Currency traders are again flirting with the idea of yen intervention, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has not said the United States will buy Japanese yen (despite speculation on social media).

Official U.S. readouts have stressed the orthodox G7 line that exchange rates should be market-determined, and have noted that Bessent and Japan’s finance minister have not discussed specific foreign-exchange levels.

Speculation nevertheless flared after an unusual “rate check” by the New York Fed that jolted USD/JPY lower and encouraged talk that Washington might tolerate, or quietly coordinate around, a Japanese move. Japan’s top foreign-exchange officials have said they are in close coordination with the U.S. as intervention chatter rises.

The backdrop is Japan’s domestic bond turmoil. Yields on long-dated Japanese government bonds have surged to record highs amid election-season spending promises and renewed doubts about fiscal discipline, a shock in a market long anchored by ultra-low rates.

A weaker yen is also feeding inflation more persistently as firms pass through costs, tightening the political squeeze on Tokyo as the Bank of Japan weighs how quickly to lift rates.

The international stakes are clear. A disorderly rise in Japanese yields can spill into global bond markets by lifting term premia elsewhere, pressuring risk assets and potentially triggering an unwind of yen-funded carry trades.

It would also complicate any intervention calculus: large, sustained yen buying typically means selling foreign reserves, and Japan’s reserves include U.S. Treasuries. Heavy sales could push U.S. yields higher, something Washington would not welcome in an already volatile market.

Birthplace of civilization

Syria’s president to meet Putin in Moscow on Wednesday

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday, according to Syria TV, a pro-government outlet. The visit would be the latest sign that Damascus, under al-Sharaa, is trying to steady ties with a patron that helped sustain the previous regime, while Russia gauges how to preserve influence amid Syria’s political transition.

The immediate backdrop is Russia’s shifting military footprint and Damascus’s drive to consolidate control. Russia has begun withdrawing forces from Qamishli airport in northeastern Syria, moving personnel and equipment toward its main facilities on the Mediterranean coast, notably Hmeimim air base. If Moscow is trimming exposed positions while retaining its core bases, the logic is practical: Russia still wants leverage, but with less risk and lower cost.

For al-Sharaa, Moscow matters for reasons that go beyond battlefield geography. Russia remains a veto-wielding power at the U.N. and a key interlocutor on sanctions, reconstruction prospects, and the terms governing Russia’s presence.

Al-Sharaa has met Putin in Moscow before, according to the Kremlin’s own record of talks in October 2025, suggesting this week’s encounter is less a debut than a negotiation over terms and expectations. For Russia, the calculation is equally direct: retain access and status in the eastern Mediterranean, and constrain rivals’ ability to shape Syria’s settlement on their own terms.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Fighting grinds on from Donetsk to Kursk

Reporting and official updates pointed to continued heavy fighting along the eastern front and continued intense aerial bombardment on both sides.

The Ukrainian social media tracker DeepState published map updates dated 26 January that described Russian advances in parts of Donetsk oblast, including reported movement within Orikhovo-Vasylivka and additional gains reported in or near Vasiukivka and Shakhove.

In the northern sector, Ukraine’s General Staff reporting (as carried by Ukrainian outlets) said the Northern Slobozhanskyi and Kursk directions remained active, with multiple air strikes using guided bombs and numerous attacks and shelling incidents.

Inside Ukraine, Russian drone and missile strikes on 26 January in and around Kharkiv caused widespread power outages across much of the city, with damage reported to residential buildings and a school or kindergarten, and at least two people injured. Kyiv still has more than 1,300 buildings without heating following a large Russian missile-and-drone attack on energy infrastructure, amid wider outages in freezing conditions.

In Russia, debris from downed drones caused fires at two enterprises in Krasnodar region, while Russia’s Ministry of Defence said air defenses intercepted or destroyed 40 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 34 over Krasnodar.

Philippines and U.S. stage joint sail at Scarborough Shoal

The Philippine and U.S. militaries sailed together at Scarborough Shoal this week, the Armed Forces of the Philippines said on 27 January, conducting drills intended to improve interoperability between the treaty allies.

The activity took place in waters that lie within Manila’s exclusive economic zone, although China also claims the area. The Philippine military said the operation involved the frigate BRP Antonio Luna, a Philippine Coast Guard offshore patrol vessel, two military aircraft, and a helicopter. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command deployed the USS John Finn, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, alongside an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter, according to the same statement. Manila described the event as the 11th “maritime cooperative activity” conducted by the two countries since November 2023.

The joint sail comes amid a fresh run of incidents and sharper rhetoric around the shoal. On 20 January, China’s military said it had warned off a Philippine government aircraft that it accused of intruding into airspace over Scarborough Shoal. Separately, on 26 January, the Philippine foreign ministry said it had lodged “firm representations” with China’s embassy in Manila over what it described as an escalating war of words linked to the South China Sea dispute.

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