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What you need to know

Iran open to talks as regional diplomacy enters the final stage

Iran’s president said he had instructed his foreign affairs minister, Abbas Araghchi, to engage in negotiations with the U.S.

Any negotiations, he added, would take place strictly within the framework of Iran’s national interests. This suggests that Iran is not prepared to budge on any of the major issues which concern the U.S., such as nuclear enrichment, missiles, or support to regional proxies.

Talks are expected to take place in Istanbul, Türkiye, on Friday. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff, and possibly Jared Kushner, are due to attend. The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are expected to be present, with the United Arab Emirates also a strong possibility. President of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed has canceled a planned trip to Japan in order to remain in the region and assist with the negotiations.

The New York Times has reported that Iran has signaled a willingness to shut down or suspend its nuclear program in what it described as a major concession to the U.S., citing Iranian and American officials.

In response to the idea that Türkiye might accept some or all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, senior Iranian officials have repeatedly stated in recent days that they will neither relinquish nor allow the removal of any part of Iran’s nuclear stockpile from the country. Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and Ali Shamkhani, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative on the Defense Council, have both said that Iran will not ship its enriched uranium abroad. Shamkhani added that if the U.S. were to attack, Iran would strike Israel.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has announced new sanctions on Iran, incorporating U.S. and European Union designations unveiled last week. The measures target, among others, Babak Zanjani and Iran’s interior minister, and extend to the entirety of the Islamic Republic’s police force.

America first

A reset in U.S.-India trade ties

The United States and India have reached a trade agreement that eases recent commercial tensions and demonstrates a renewed effort to deepen bilateral economic ties.

Under the deal, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on a range of Indian exports, reversing punitive measures imposed over the past year, while India has committed to expanding imports of American goods, particularly in energy, defense, and high-value manufacturing.

The agreement also tackles a persistent political irritant by linking improved market access to a gradual reduction in India’s purchases of Russian oil.

Markets in both countries responded positively, and officials on both sides portrayed the accord as a first step toward a broader and more durable trade framework, with further negotiations expected on agriculture, standards, and non-tariff barriers.

Move fast and break things

Trump moves to build strategic U.S. minerals stockpile

President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a large-scale strategic stockpile of critical minerals, a move that would mark a significant expansion of U.S. industrial policy and reflect Washington’s growing concern about supply-chain vulnerability.

The initiative, known as Project Vault, is intended to shield American manufacturers from geopolitical shocks, export controls, and sudden market disruptions affecting materials essential to advanced industry.

The project would begin with $12 billion in public seed funding, combined with $1.67 billion in private capital and a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank. The funds would be used to procure and store rare earths and other critical minerals, which manufacturers could draw upon during periods of shortage or severe price volatility.

The minerals targeted under Project Vault are used across a wide range of sectors, including consumer electronics, batteries, aerospace, and defense. Inputs found in products such as smartphones, electric vehicles, and jet engines would form the core of the reserve. By guaranteeing access to these materials, the administration aims to reduce production disruptions and give firms a buffer against supply shocks.

The strategic rationale is explicitly geopolitical. China currently dominates the processing and refining of many rare earths and critical metals, giving it considerable leverage over global supply chains. By building a centrally managed reserve, the U.S. would seek to reduce its dependence on Chinese-controlled supply networks and limit exposure to export restrictions or diplomatic retaliation.

The structure of the project reflects a broader shift in U.S. economic thinking. Rather than relying solely on market forces, the administration is proposing a hybrid model that combines state financing with private investment to reduce the risks associated with long-term access to strategic materials.

Project Vault would represent one of the most ambitious U.S. interventions in commodity markets in decades. It could reshape investment incentives in mining, refining, and processing, both at home and among allied countries, while reinforcing the view that critical minerals are strategic assets rather than ordinary trade goods.

Judge blocks bid to end Haitian temporary protection

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to terminate Temporary Protected Status for more than 350,000 Haitian nationals, delivering a sharp rebuke to the Department of Homeland Security’s legal and factual arguments.

In her ruling, United States District Judge Ana Reyes found that the decision by Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, to end TPS for Haitians was likely unlawful and poorly justified. Reyes concluded that the department failed to show that conditions in Haiti had improved enough to allow for the safe return of beneficiaries. The court held that DHS had ignored or selectively interpreted evidence, weakening its claim that the statutory conditions for ending TPS had been satisfied.

The opinion was notable for its severity. Reyes described the administration’s reasoning as internally inconsistent and, at times, detached from the factual record, stating plainly that the secretary “does not have the facts or the law on her side.” She stressed that Congress created TPS to prevent large-scale removals when return would expose migrants to exceptional danger, and that executive discretion in this area is subject to judicial review.

The ruling, for now, halts a central immigration initiative pursued under President Donald Trump and preserves work authorization and legal protection for hundreds of thousands of Haitians who have lived in the U.S. for years, often decades. The administration is expected to appeal, opening a broader legal contest over the limits of executive authority in ending humanitarian protections and the standard of evidence DHS must meet.

The new Monroe Doctrine & the Trump Corollary 

Right-wing populist Laura Fernández claims victory in Costa Rica election on Bukele-style platform

Laura Fernández, a right-wing populist candidate, has claimed victory in Costa Rica’s presidential election after campaigning on a hard-line security agenda modeled explicitly on the policies of Nayib Bukele. The result marks a significant political shift for a country long regarded as one of Central America’s most stable and institutionally restrained democracies.

Fernández centered her campaign on public anxiety over rising crime, drug trafficking, and the expanding reach of transnational criminal networks. She argued that Costa Rica’s traditional emphasis on judicial procedure and social prevention had failed to adapt to changing security threats. Her proposed remedy was a decisive break with past practice, presenting Bukele’s approach in El Salvador as evidence that rapid and forceful action can restore public order.

The most contentious element of her platform was a pledge to construct a Costa Rican equivalent of El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center, commonly known as CECOT. Fernández portrayed the proposal as a deterrence-based strategy aimed at dismantling criminal organizations through mass detention and long-term incapacitation rather than incremental policing reforms.

The attraction of the Bukele model reflects a broader regional trend, as voters frustrated by persistent insecurity increasingly favor leaders who promise swift and uncompromising results. Fernández’s rhetoric suggests she is wagering that demands for safety and state authority will outweigh concerns over civil liberties. Whether Costa Rica’s legal framework and political culture can absorb such an approach remains to be seen.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

U.S. and Kenya expand Manda Bay as air war in Somalia intensifies

The U.S. and Kenya have begun a $70m State Department-funded expansion of Manda Bay Air Base on Kenya’s northern coast, emphasizing Washington’s renewed reliance on air power in the Horn of Africa as U.S. strikes in Somalia accelerate under President Donald Trump’s second term.

The project includes extending the base’s main runway to about 3,050 meters (10,000 feet), alongside upgrades to aprons, fuel storage, and support facilities. U.S. and Kenyan officials say the works are intended to improve the tempo and reach of counterterrorism air operations across southern Somalia and the wider region.

Manda Bay hosts Camp Simba, where U.S. forces support intelligence, surveillance, and strike missions against al-Shabab and ISIS-Somalia. The base sits close to the Somali border and offers direct access to the Indian Ocean, making it one of the most strategically valuable U.S. military footholds in East Africa.

The expansion comes as U.S. Africa Command has greatly increased airstrikes in Somalia in recent months, reversing the more restrained posture of the previous administration. American officials argue that intensified pressure is needed to blunt al-Shabab’s operational capacity and prevent the group from threatening regional partners and international targets.

The investment also reflects a broader geographic shift. The U.S. has withdrawn or drawn down forces in parts of the Sahel, notably Chad and Niger, where relations with military-led governments have deteriorated and access agreements have unraveled. With options narrowing in West Africa, East Africa has taken on greater importance as a platform for counterterrorism operations.

Manda Bay itself carries symbolic weight. In January 2020 the base was hit by a coordinated al-Shabab attack that killed three Americans and exposed vulnerabilities in perimeter security. Subsequent upgrades focused on force protection, but the new project marks the most significant expansion since that assault.

Kenyan officials have framed the development as a boost to national security and to joint operations against militant groups operating along the Kenya–Somalia border.

Taken together, the runway extension and related works suggest that, even as Washington trims its on-the-ground presence elsewhere in Africa, it is doubling down on a smaller number of hardened hubs from which it can project air power quickly and at scale.

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