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- In the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets followed Iranian attacks on three tankers. - Washington also revoked a June oil-sales license for Iran, removing the economic bargain behind the partial reopening of the strait. - Traffic has not stopped, but it has fallen sharply, with LNG shipments most exposed. - At the NATO summit, President Trump has threatened to cut off all trade with Spain. - In France, Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction has been upheld, but her sentence and office ban were reduced enough to reopen her path to the 2027 presidential election. - Cuba, meanwhile, suffered its third nationwide blackout this year, exposing the combined failure of an aging grid and fuel shortages. - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is expected to visit President Donald Trump at the White House on 21 July, seeking U.S. support for Lebanon’s state institutions and border diplomacy. - In Ukraine, the Monaco bombing case has widened after suspect Anastasiia Berezovska was killed near Kyiv, with a Ukrainian intelligence officer detained. - In Yemen, the Houthis are bringing together tribes and state institutions in a broader mobilization campaign against Saudi Arabia. |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
U.S. strikes signal end of MoU
The U.S. military hit more than 80 targets inside Iran on July 7, marking the most aggressive escalation since the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Central Command (CENTCOM) targeted air-defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities and over 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats.
The scale of the operation shows Washington is no longer treating Iranian attacks on shipping as isolated incidents but as a direct challenge to the ceasefire framework itself.
The strikes are a retaliatory response, not a first move.
CENTCOM says the goal is to degrade Iran's capacity to strike commercial vessels in one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Tanker attacks broke the June truce first
Iran's forces struck three tankers over 48 hours, an escalation that preceded and triggered the U.S. response. Axios reported that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships Monday night, before the Revolutionary Guard hit a third vessel Tuesday morning.
As we reported yesterday, the most significant strike hit the Al Rekayyat, a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, causing an engine-room fire. That the target was Qatari, not Saudi or generic shipping, raises the stakes considerably since Doha has largely stayed outside direct confrontation with Tehran until now.
Vessels hit: M/T Al Rekayyat (Marshall Islands-flagged), M/T Wedyan (Saudi-flagged), M/T Cyprus Prosperity (Liberian-flagged).
Qatar summoned Tehran's deputy ambassador and filed a formal protest. Saudi Arabia also blamed Iran directly for the Wedyan attack.
Iran denies recklessness, arguing vessels avoiding routes coordinated with Tehran assume their own risk.
Washington cancels the economic side of the bargain
The White House revoked the Treasury license issued June 22 that had permitted Iranian crude and petroleum product sales through August 21.
Companies now have until July 17 to unwind transactions. The move eliminates the economic incentive that had underpinned Iran's cooperation on shipping safety.
This wasn't just a sanctions tweak. The oil waiver was the other half of the June deal: Iran eased pressure on tankers, the U.S. eased pressure on oil sales. Pulling it signals Washington won't let Tehran collect economic benefits while attacking the same shipping lanes the deal was meant to protect.
Oil prices rose more than 6% after the license revocation and renewed sanctions.
U.S. stocks also fell, and will likely fall more this morning.
Shipping traffic has collapsed, not stopped
The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the U.S. Navy, raised the Hormuz threat level to "severe," the highest since mid-June. Actual transit volume shows the practical effect: the strait isn't closed by policy, but it's being closed by risk calculus among shipowners and insurers.
Tuesday traffic: roughly 16 vessels transited, versus a pre-conflict daily average near 125.
Current volume sits between one-fifth and one-third of normal levels.
LNG exposure is the sharpest vulnerability
Qatari LNG cargoes from Ras Laffan face fewer rerouting options than crude oil, making the Al Rekayyat strike a direct test of whether Gulf energy exports can function under the current ceasefire terms. If insurers and shipowners conclude LNG carriers are now legitimate targets, the economic damage extends well beyond this single incident.
Next 48 hours determine whether the framework survives
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said final negotiations won't proceed if U.S. threats continue, putting the diplomatic track under visible strain. Iranian officials have also warned Tehran will take unspecified measures to protect its interests.
Two scenarios diverge fast from here. Continued escorted shipping without further Iranian attacks could let the June framework limp on in damaged form. A retaliatory strike from Tehran would likely return Hormuz to the tit-for-tat volatility that has defined the situation in the Strait since late February.
Watch for: further Iranian strikes on tankers, any Qatari military or diplomatic response beyond the protest note, and whether insurers pull additional coverage for LNG carriers transiting the strait.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether U.S./Israel war on Iran will return to high intensity operations. What impact this war will have on the global economy. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Relations
America first
Trump turns NATO grievance into trade weapon
President Donald Trump has escalated a defense-policy dispute with Spain into a direct threat to sever commercial ties. Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara today, Trump said he had ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all trade with Madrid. It's one of the most aggressive U.S. threats against a NATO ally in recent memory, and it collapses a military-alliance quarrel into a transatlantic economic standoff.
Why it matters: Trade policy is now being used as leverage over alliance behavior, not just tariffs or market access. That's a new bargaining logic inside NATO.
Base access, not just budgets, is the real fight
Trump called Spain a "terrible partner," citing Madrid's refusal to hit NATO's new defense-spending target and its limits on U.S. use of Spanish airspace and bases during the Iran war. The dispute carries extra weight because Spain hosts critical U.S. military infrastructure.
Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base are central to U.S. power projection into the Mediterranean, North Africa, and Middle East.
Restricting access during an active conflict is, in Washington's framing, a breach of alliance obligations rather than a routine policy disagreement.
The threat outruns the paperwork
No formal executive order, Treasury sanctions package, or customs directive has surfaced to implement an actual trade ban. Trump's statement was an instruction to his own Treasury secretary, not a completed legal action.
A real cutoff would be far more disruptive than another tariff round and would likely draw legal challenges, diplomatic pushback, and market disruption before ever taking effect.
Markets price the risk, not the reality
Spanish equities fell immediately after Trump's remarks, with banks among the hardest-hit sectors. Investors are pricing the probability that political threat becomes enforceable policy, not waiting for confirmation.
U.S.-Spain goods trade totaled roughly $47.9 billion in 2025.
U.S. exports to Spain: $26.6 billion.
U.S. imports from Spain: $21.3 billion.
Resulting U.S. goods surplus: about $5.2 billion.
Brussels, not Madrid, holds the trade authority
Spain's EU membership complicates any unilateral U.S. action, since trade with non-EU countries runs through EU institutions, not national capitals alone. The European Commission already signaled in March, after a similar Trump threat tied to the Iran war, that it would defend the bloc's trade interests and back Spain.
Any U.S. move against Spain risks becoming a U.S.-EU confrontation, not a bilateral one.
Watch for alliance terms getting renegotiated through trade
The strategic risk extends beyond this bilateral spat. Trump is using trade pressure to discipline an ally over defense spending and basing rights, while Spain is trying to preserve distance from the Iran war. If this holds as precedent, alliance commitments, base access, and market access start getting negotiated as a single package.
Latin America
The new Monroe Doctrine & the Trump Corollary
Another electricity grid collapse in Cuba
Cuba's national electricity grid collapsed Monday, cutting power to nearly 10 million people in the country's third nationwide blackout this year. The failure forced authorities to ration restoration, prioritizing hospitals, food-production centers and water systems while leaving the rest of the island dark.
The outage is not an isolated technical failure. It's the clearest evidence yet that Cuba's energy system now compounds its own breakdowns rather than absorbing them.
Recovery is partial and uneven
Cuba's grid operator, Unión Eléctrica, said by late Tuesday it had reconnected areas from Pinar del Río in the west to Holguín in the east. Santiago de Cuba, the island's second-largest city, remained cut off, with millions still without power because fuel supply can't meet demand.
Authorities have not given a definitive cause for Monday's "total disconnection." The collapse followed months of rationing and rolling outages that had already limited many Cubans to a few hours of electricity daily, with some rural outages reportedly running far longer than 24 hours.
Two structural failures, not one
Cuba's power system is failing on both ends simultaneously: an aging, poorly maintained fleet of thermal plants prone to breakdown, and a fuel shortfall that leaves the country producing only about 40% of what it needs. That combination means even a successful grid restart doesn't fix the underlying capacity problem.
A Russian tanker delivered 730,000 barrels of oil in late March, but that supply had reportedly run out by the end of April, leaving no fuel buffer heading into the summer.
Domestic fuel production covers roughly 40% of national demand.
Last major supply infusion: 730,000 barrels from Russia, delivered late March, exhausted by end of April.
Protests are scattered, not organized, but the exhaustion is new
Scattered protests broke out across Havana Tuesday evening, with residents banging pots and honking horns to demand power. Some neighborhoods saw electricity return shortly after demonstrations began, though the broader mood reflects fatigue more than coordinated unrest.
What's different this time is timing. The blackout hit during hot weather and amid existing shortages of water, gas, food and medicine, compounding pressure points that were already near capacity before the grid failed.
Havana and Washington trade blame at the UN
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel blamed U.S. policy, accusing Washington of restricting fuel access to provoke unrest. Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said emergency "microsystems" have been activated to protect vital services, and the government is framing the crisis as an external siege compounding domestic strain.
U.S. officials reject that framing, arguing Havana's own governance failures caused the collapse and that sanctions are designed to push Cuba toward elections and the release of political prisoners. The dispute reached the UN this week, where most countries speaking at a Tuesday debate called on the U.S. to lift restrictions, while Washington placed responsibility squarely on Cuba's leadership.
Forum: UN debate held Tuesday.
Split: most member states urged an end to U.S. restrictions; Washington held Cuban leadership responsible.
Expect rationing, not resolution
Cuba is already navigating one of its worst economic crises in decades, with weakening tourism, foreign firms scaling back operations, and disrupted public transport and medical care. The grid failure now touches every one of those problems at once, since refrigeration, water pumping, hospitals and small businesses all depend on power that can no longer be guaranteed.
The most likely near-term path is partial restoration followed by continued rationing. Without new fuel supplies, major infrastructure repairs or external financing, Cuba is positioned for repeated grid failures through the summer months.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
Aoun to visit White House on 21 July
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is expected to visit the White House on 21 July for his first face-to-face meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The visit comes as Washington presses ahead with efforts to turn last month’s U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon framework agreement into a durable security arrangement.
For Aoun, the meeting offers a chance to secure stronger U.S. backing for Lebanon’s fragile state institutions, the army and the country’s postwar diplomacy.
For Trump, it provides an opportunity to present Washington as the indispensable broker in Lebanon’s effort to contain Hezbollah, stabilize its border with Israel and pull Beirut closer to the U.S.-led regional order.
Houthis combine tribes and bureaucracy in war footing
The Houthis have widened their mobilization campaign across northern Yemen, moving beyond armed rallies to draw tribal networks and civilian government institutions into coordinated preparation for a possible confrontation with Saudi Arabia. Rallies reported in Marib, Sanaa, Hajjah and Al Hudaydah suggest the movement is converting a political message into an organized public campaign rather than a one-off show of force.
Houthi officials frame the mobilization as a response to the Saudi-led blockade, Yemen's unresolved war and the group's support for Gaza under its "unity of fronts" doctrine. The geographic spread across four provinces points to central coordination, not isolated local displays.
Tribal networks pledge fighters and back deterrence threats
In Marib, the Murad and Bani Abd tribes from the southern districts declared general mobilization and pledged support for Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi, backing the group's missile, air, naval and drone units. Speakers renewed calls for military training and new mobilization centers, tying local tribal action directly to regional conflict narratives around Gaza and Iran-aligned forces.
In Sanaa's Al Thawrah District, residents held an armed rally where officials repeated the Houthi deterrence formula of "airport for airport and port for port," warning Saudi infrastructure could become a target if Riyadh restricts air and maritime access. In Hajjah, the Kahlan Affar tribes pledged continued recruitment and training, with speakers warning tribal patience had run out after more than a decade of conflict and blockade.
Marib: Murad and Bani Abd tribes pledge mobilization and back Houthi military units.
Sanaa: Al Thawrah District rally invokes "airport for airport, port for port" threat against Saudi infrastructure.
Hajjah: Kahlan Affar tribes pledge recruitment and training, cite exhausted patience after over a decade of conflict.
Iranian aircraft flight becomes a rallying symbol
Multiple rallies praised Iran for sending an aircraft to Sanaa International Airport, treating the flight as a symbolic breach of the Saudi blockade. Houthi media has promoted the flight as a victory over Saudi restrictions, giving the movement a concrete event to rally around rather than an abstract grievance.
Yemen's internationally recognized government and the Saudi-led coalition read the same event differently, treating it as a challenge to Yemeni sovereignty and evidence of deeper Iranian involvement in Houthi-held territory. That gap in interpretation is likely to widen as the Houthis continue citing the flight as proof the blockade can be broken.
Civilian bureaucracy gets pulled into the war footing
The mobilization campaign extends beyond armed groups. In Al Hudaydah, employees from the General Authority of Zakat, the Finance Office, the Central Organization for Control and Auditing, the Executive Unit for Projects and Maintenance, and the Cleaning and Improvement Fund held their own mobilization rallies, backing military training programs for government employees and warning Saudi Arabia against what they called an economic war.
This matters beyond optics. By folding administrative and financial offices into the mobilization framework, the Houthis are blurring the line between civilian governance and military preparedness in areas under their control, making state institutions themselves part of the movement's wartime posture.
Participating agencies: General Authority of Zakat, Finance Office, Central Organization for Control and Auditing, Executive Unit for Projects and Maintenance, Cleaning and Improvement Fund.
Riyadh reads it as pressure tactic, not attack precursor
For Saudi Arabia, the campaign functions as a warning rather than confirmed evidence of an imminent strike. The Houthis have a track record of using armed rallies and tribal gatherings to project discipline and pressure opponents during diplomatic standoffs, and this pattern fits that precedent.
What's different is scale and geographic spread, which point to a more coordinated effort to prepare the population for escalation or at least make that escalation look credible to external audiences.
Truce stability now depends on Sanaa Airport and Red Sea moves
Yemen's fragile truce environment is becoming more exposed to regional shocks as the Houthis link tribal legitimacy, institutional mobilization and military pressure into a single narrative. Riyadh and Yemen's internationally recognized government are likely to view the campaign as an Iranian-backed effort to militarize state institutions under nationalist and humanitarian cover.
Whether this produces renewed cross-border attacks or stays a symbolic display depends on developments around Sanaa Airport access, Red Sea navigation security, and any Saudi-Houthi backchannel diplomacy in the coming weeks.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side
Monaco bombing suspect's death turns probe toward Ukrainian intelligence
The hunt for Anastasiia Berezovska, the Ukrainian woman suspected of bombing Ukrainian-born tycoon Vadym Iermolaiev in Monaco, has ended with her death near Kyiv and a widening criminal case that now implicates Ukraine's own military intelligence agency. Ukrainian authorities say Berezovska was found dead after returning to Ukraine, just days after Interpol issued a Red Notice for her arrest over the June 29 attack.
Her death doesn't close the case. It opens a more damaging one, tying a Ukrainian intelligence officer directly to her killing.
A serving intelligence officer confesses to the killing
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said a serving officer in the HUR military intelligence agency has confessed to killing Berezovska with help from a former law-enforcement officer. Both men are now detained. The HUR officer claims he acted alone, without his superiors' knowledge, a claim Ukrainian authorities have not independently verified.
Monaco prosecutor Stéphane Thibault said the two detained men may also have been involved in planning the original Monaco bombing, linking Berezovska's death directly to the attack she's suspected of carrying out rather than treating it as a separate incident.
Financial trail and a torture room deepen the case
The SBU said both detained men had repeatedly transferred cryptocurrency and bank funds to Berezovska, establishing a financial relationship alongside the operational one. That pattern suggests sustained coordination rather than a one-off contact.
Ukrainian prosecutors also said they found an alleged torture room at the former law-enforcement officer's home, a detail that adds a separate criminal dimension to a case already centered on an assassination and a foreign bombing.
Motive and sponsorship remain unresolved
Monaco investigators believe the bombing was too sophisticated for a single person to have carried out, pointing toward organized backing rather than a lone actor. Ukrainian authorities say they're sharing information with Monaco and continuing to investigate who ordered and organized the attack.
Iermolaiev, also transliterated as Yermolaiev, was sanctioned by Ukraine in 2023 over alleged Russia ties. Whether his business history connects to why he was targeted has not been established.
Kyiv has strong incentive to contain the story
Ukraine absolutely depends on Western support in the war with Russia, making any confirmed link between its intelligence service and an attempted killing in Monaco politically costly. The current official line, that the HUR officer acted independently, is the version most likely to limit diplomatic damage.
That framing doesn't resolve the harder questions: who planned the Monaco bombing, why Berezovska returned to Ukraine at all, and whether her killing was meant to prevent her from naming who ordered the attack.
New Europe
Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray, and fear of Russia increases
Le Pen's conviction stands, but her path to 2027 reopens
A Paris appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds on Tuesday, while cutting her sentence and shortening her office ban enough to clear her for a 2027 presidential run. The ruling is a split decision: it preserves the legal finding against Le Pen while removing the practical barrier that had threatened to force National Rally into an early succession plan.
Le Pen, leader of the National Rally bloc in the National Assembly, still faces a criminal record and a reduced but active sentence. She says she will run regardless.
Sentence cut, but conviction survives
The appeals court found that National Rally, then called the National Front, diverted European Union funds meant for parliamentary assistants to pay party staff in France instead. It set the loss at 2.8 million euros ($3.2 million). Le Pen has denied criminal intent, though she conceded at trial that the party made a "mistake."
The court reduced her prison term from four years (two suspended) to three years (two suspended), with the remaining year now served as home detention under electronic monitoring rather than in prison. Her office ban dropped from five years to 45 months, two-thirds suspended. She has already served 15 months of the ban, clearing her immediate path to candidacy.
Financial loss attributed to the scheme: €2.8 million ($3.2 million).
Remaining sentence: one year of electronic monitoring, down from a four-year prison term.
Office ban: cut to 45 months from five years, with 15 months already served.
Le Pen moves to strip the ankle tag before it's applied
Electronic monitoring would restrict Le Pen to a residence set by a sentence-enforcement judge, except during court-approved hours, complicating rallies and travel during a campaign. She's moving to avoid that constraint entirely rather than manage it.
Le Pen said she will appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court for procedural review. That appeal is expected to suspend the monitoring order until a final ruling, meaning she could campaign without the ankle tag while the case remains open overhead.
The Court of Cassation has indicated it can rule before the 2027 election.
Succession plan for Bardella goes back on ice
Before Tuesday, National Rally had been preparing for the scenario where Jordan Bardella, the party's 30-year-old president and Le Pen's protégé, would need to stand in as candidate. That contingency is now shelved, not scrapped.
Le Pen remains the party's strongest electoral asset, and Bardella stays positioned as a fallback if the Court of Cassation rules against her before voting begins.
Opponents get a corruption line of attack, Le Pen gets a martyrdom narrative
Socialist and Green politicians are already using the conviction to challenge Le Pen's credibility as a head-of-state candidate, framing a party that campaigns on order and sovereignty as one found guilty of misusing public and EU funds. That attack line will likely recur through the campaign regardless of the Court of Cassation's timing.
Le Pen has the opposite play available: casting the ruling as judicial overreach against voters' right to choose. The appeals court's own decision to shorten the ban while upholding the conviction hands both sides material, easing her path to the ballot while keeping the legal cloud intact.
Timeline now hinges on Court of Cassation
France's presidential election runs April 18, 2027, with a runoff May 2 if no candidate wins outright. Whether Le Pen faces the full weight of electronic monitoring during the campaign depends entirely on how fast the Court of Cassation moves.
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What happened today:
1497 - Vasco da Gama sails from Lisbon for India. 1663 - King Charles II grants Rhode Island its royal charter. 1776 - The Declaration of Independence receives its first public reading in Philadelphia. 1853 - Commodore Matthew Perry’s U.S. squadron arrives in Edo Bay. 1960 - U-2 pilot Francis Gary Powers is charged with espionage by the Soviet Union. 1969 - The first U.S. troops begin withdrawing from South Vietnam. 1972 - Palestinian writer Ghassan Kanafani is assassinated in Beirut.



















